A new poll taken in Iowa has John Edwards leading the field, Hillary Clinton’s vote falling, and a surprising late surge from Bill Richardson. Looks like there’s still everything to play for.
Monthly Archives: December 2007
Why I prefer Barack Obama
Roughly, Alan’s plea to support John Edwards in the US elections is right on the mark. Edwards has been more vocal about left-wing issues such as healthcare, supporting ordinary people against powerful corporations, the power of lobby groups etc, than Hilary Clinton or Barack Obama. But I support Obama in these elections for various reasons. First, let’s take it as given that if one had a choice, any sane person would support Democrats over the Republicans. Secondly, I want to disagree with a few points in his article.
a) The Democrats did well in the 2006 Congressional Elections, taking control of both Houses, not because they had a better vision to offer or a more “populist style”, but simply because the electorate had become thoroughly sick of Bush by that time. It was more a rejection of the Republicans than an embrace of the Democrats. I don’t see a long-term trend favouring the Democrats as yet. If anyone wants me to expand on this, I can.
b) The “netroots” supported a more right-wing Democrat in Ohio than the relatively left-wing Republican Sherrod Brown because they are more focused on electoral victory rather than ideological positions. That isn’t much different to a stance ConservativeHome would take for example, but should be opposed to how we see our politics. (I say ‘should be’ because in certain circumstance I would argue electoral victory should take precedence over ideological positions. But we’ll cross that bridge once we come to it.)
c) I agree with Robert’s comment that Hilary Clinton is actually more left-wing than she makes out to be, primarily because she is scared of further polarising Republican voters that she will have to appeal to later.
Anyway, so, why should Obama be our man? Continue reading
Swiftboats and Fixed Terms
With the Christmas festivities safely concluded, I’ve decided to take a little time out from some truly excellent Christmas reading – Christopher Hitchens’ “Portable Atheist” is well worth the investment in book tokens – to tackle one of the most risible pieces of hypocritical political sophistry I’ve seen in some considerable time…
…Iain Dale’s ‘campaign‘ for fixed term parliaments.
Like Matthew Sinclair, I’m by no means averse to the idea of fixed parliamentary terms, but unlike Iain and other new found Tory converts to the ’cause’ of constitutional reform I actually understand the workings of the British constitution, in theory and practice, well enough to appreciate that the introduction of even a seemingly simple innovation, like fixed parliamentary terms, would require a significant restructuring of our entire constitutional settlement in order to prove workable, not least in necessitating a far greater and more substantive separation between the executive and legislature than has existed at any time since the English Civil War. Continue reading
Bhutto assassinated
May I draw your attention to The Daily (Maybe), which has comprehensive coverage of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan who was killed today in a suicide bombing at a rally in Rawalpindi.
Why I’m supporting John Edwards – an appeal to the Left
At both the last US Presidential election, I took a stance that is not popular on the UK left – one of support for a critical Democratic vote. For those of you who are unaware of my political heritage and who may be surprised that such an apparently uncontroversial stance would excite any kind of debate at all on the liberal-left, allow me to explain. The political background from which I come is one of the left in union and wider labour movement politics, where Trotskyist groups, all of which have a visceral loathing for the Democrats, have loomed large. Indeed, they were only ever really willing to call for a vote for the Labour Party in the UK based on a combination of recruitment raiding, and Byzantine theorising that attached an almost religious significance to the never-exercised trade union link with Labour.
Both of these factors having withered on the vine over the past ten years, most of the left (barring a few real no-hopers) have pulled back from automatic support for Labour, and indeed have ended up in many cases in something of a state of confused hopelessness as a consequence. Some indeed have ended up wandering down blind alleys such as the laughably misnamed “Respect” coalition, following quixotic figures such as George Galloway in the desperate hope of being led to a new dawn. Of course, that dawn will transpire to be a mirage, and most have already seen it. But such is the myopic faith even of ex-trotskyists in their will to follow a “line” that some will continue to do so – even as they spend every passing day tearing each other to pieces and opening themselves up for widespread mockery on this blog amongst others. It’s hardly an edifying spectacle.
So in light of such an extraordinary fiasco, what on earth could a refugee from such a risible political community possibly have to contribute to a debate being held on a far larger arena, in the USA? One of the reasons is because I like to think that people can and do learn lessons, and that therefore they are not doomed to carry on repeating the mistakes of the past. Continue reading
Can Gordon Brown make a comeback?
[This article is a prelude to the Fabian Society's 'Fabian Review' new year editorial, published on January 3rd. It was previewed in Sunday's Observer.]
Whose has been the greatest political fightback of all time? The championship bout of our times would be between John ‘Soapbox’ Major, who won an unwinnable election in 1992, and Bill ‘Comeback Kid’ Clinton, reduced to lame duck status by Newt Gingrich’s revolution just two years into his Presidency.
While Harold Macmillan’s ability to turn the Suez debacle into a Tory landslide has many contemporary parallels, the all-time champion of champions has to be Harry Truman, able to brandish the famous headlines ‘Dewey defeats Truman’ after his surprise Presidential victory sixty years ago.
After Gordon Brown’s Autumn horribilis, it may be little Christmas consolation to think that others have dug themselves out of considerably larger holes than he finds himself in. Labour has been buffeted by events ever since a hubristic party conference.
The result is that the Conservatives are now favourites to win the next general election. That, of course, is the threat to Brown. The fightback strategy he needs depends on realizing how he could yet turn it into his opportunity too.
As I argue in an editorial in the Fabian Review new year issue. Like Harry Truman, embracing the status of the underdog could be the key to political recovery.
Continue reading
Casting the net – Bye, bye 2007
Welcome to Casting the net, Liberal Conspiracy’s daily web review. It’s Christmas Eve (so how about a smile, eh?).
Highlights
Paul Linford – My review of 2007
Paul’s annual review of the political world. Informed and insightful.
UK Poling Report – ComRes show 11 point Tory lead
The last poll of the year? (CON 41% (+1), LAB 30%(+3), LDEM 16% (-2))
Ben Rogers/CiF – Santa clues
If you believe in God, why not Santa?
Ministry of Truth – The price of penny-pinching
Emails have surfaced from within the HMRC. Cue analysis and comment from Unity.
Alex Parsons – On Militant Atheists
Atheism is split into two camps. Non-believers and God-Haters. But intolerant atheism does have a purpose.
Norfolk Blogger – Nick – if you want to make Education your priority then lets adopt the principle of having as little change as possible
Teacher and Lib Dem blogger Nich Starling, has some advice for young Mr. Clegg.
PoliticalBetting.com – Guest slot: Do governments always recover in the polls?
Guest poster Andy Cooke looks back at history to assess a government’s chances of political recovery after the mid-term blues.
Johann Hari – Charity is fine, but the real issue is trade
Only trade represents a sustainable solution to global poverty.
The latest Britblog Roundup is up at Mr Eugenides (NSFW, but you knew that already).
Elsewhere
Bruce Anderson/Independent – The main obstacle to the Tories’ success is that they sound just a bit too cheerful
Simon Titley /LDV – Opinion: What should the new leader do in his first 100 days? #6
Chicken Yoghurt – So this is Christmas, and what have you done?
Love & Garbage – Tommy Sheridan and the alphabet soup of Scottish left wing politcs – an update
Peter Dunphy/LDV – Labour’s swing to puritanism
Mike Ion – The politics of Christmas
Andy Howell – Taking the Rap – For Everything!
Werner Patels – While often tricky and controversial, comments DO define blogs
Casting the net will return on January 9th. Merry Christmas [legal dept: other festivals are available] and have a Happy New Year.
If you would like your blog or site to be considered as source material for future reviews, drop me an email at aaronh [at] liberalconspiracy [dot] org with the relevant url. I can then enter it into my RSS reader and monitor it for suitable content to be included. Likewise, if you have a specific article/post you feel deserves a little more traffic, get in touch.
Against ContactPoint: To Be Continued
Before I become blissfully chained to my sumptuous new cooker for at least the next ten days, a quick update on ContactPoint (the “children’s index”) and related “database state” issues. I’ve written here (and here and here) about this forthcoming information sharing e-system and why I – and others – fear it may have the opposite effect to that the government desires
In theory, ContactPoint will enable public sector professionals to better anticipate when children are at risk of harm and to respond in a more coordinated way when intervention is required. In practice, say its critics, such professionals will spend an awful lot of time at computer terminals following false trails of misleading information while the fear of breach of privacy – of up to around 300 people they’ve never met “knowing their business” online – will deter the very children and families most in need of help from seeking or accepting it
In my last piece on this subject for Liberal Conspiracy I reported that ministers might be adjusting their sales pitch for ContactPoint, replacing vaguely shroud-waving references to the Victoria Climbie tragedy with less emotive talk of general practitioner efficiency. However, during her damage limitation exercise over the latest disappearing data embarrassment – those British learner drivers’ details that got lost across the pond – Ruth Kelly directly invoked Climbie when appearing on Newsnight (thank you, ARCH blog) and I heard her on Five Live asserting that the public would rightly be appalled if information wasn’t shared in relation to child protection.
Well, her last point is indisputable taken in isolation: of course relevant child welfare professionals working on the same case need to know what each other are doing. But, whatever the top brass of the Association of Directors of Children’s Services claim, a national database of dubious reliability and questionable security, compulsorily compiled and run by local authorities without parental consent being required seems precisely the wrong way of going about it.
How can we best mobilise opinion against ContactPoint? It seems to me that simply howling “Big Brother” isn’t enough. We need to show that e-government in all its form risks creating greater dangers to individuals and to society than it prevents. ContactPoint is a good example of this, and I urge readers to join the Facebook group I’ve formed to oppose it. Lobby your MP too, and lend your support to Annette Brookes MP, the Liberal Democrats’ spokesperson on children’s issues.
But let’s look at the wider picture as well. Guardian technology correspondent Michael Cross has recently argued for a far more open and political debate about e-government, taking in everything from ID cards to NHS records. He rightly observes that the public has been given no clear idea about the growth of e-government, how best to make it work and what its true implications might be. One of my New Year resolutions will be to encourage that debate in 2008. Maybe it will be one of yours too.
Christmas holidays and our new year
Hello! As Christmas is nearly upon us and I will go AWOL from the weekend until the new year, I thought an update may be warranted. I’ve been in Los Angeles for the past week so maintaining the Conspiracy has been somewhat difficult.
So firstly, a happy Christmas and New Years to all of those of you who celebrate. I’m expecting a whole load of presents so of course I celebrate!
Secondly, I have somewhat ambitious plans to expand Liberal Conspiracy in the new year and thanks to all of you have emailed in their comments and suggestions. There are two off-shoot blogs planned – one covering right-wing bias in the media (incl the BBC) and another covering trade-union news (sadly neglected in our mainstream media). There will be more debates, campaigns and input from people not used to blogging too.
The Facebook campaign against extending the 28 days period has attracted an amazing 3,500 people so far, which is brilliant. We would still encourage people to join and sign the Amnesty petition. I am also looking for volunteers to help find out which Labour MPs oppose this legislation. Please get in touch if you can make a few calls as part of this campaign.
The new year will also bring more coverage of the US elections on LC. I’ll be here until after the Iowa Caucus anyway; plus Aaron and Garry are keen followers among others. This is also the theme adopted by the Fabians for their yearly conference and its secretary-general (and LC contributor) Sunder Katwala has started a blog exploring The World After Bush.
I’m sure there will be ongoing updates by other contributors over the next fortnight but Aaron and I are taking a well-deserved break. Have a good one!
Casting the net – Better late than never
Welcome to Casting the net, Liberal Conspiracy’s daily web review. Apologies for the lateness of today’s instalment. My internet connection has been down all day. Obviously other work has piled up too, so let’s crack on…
Highlights
Robin Lustig/BBC – The Lustig predictions for 2008
BBC4′s World Tonight presenter, Robin Lustig, gives his predictions for ’08. No US Presidential picks though, shame on you Robin.
Dave Hill/CiF – The ghost of Christmases past
Christmas has always been flexible to changes in society. So let’s not get too defensive, eh?
Freemania – Poverty and simplicity
Tom Freeman assesses Labour’s record on tackling poverty: “it’s a mixed bag, but the mix is mostly positive.”
Johann Hari – Cluster bombs are an evil we must ban outright
Will Britain side with humanity or with the big-spending superpowers? Via.
Stephen Tall/LDV – Reshuffle reactions: your essential guide
Stephen Tall has kindly put together a blog review of Lib Dem reactions to Clegg’s reshuffle. So I don’t have to. Excellent.
Stop the BNP – Fight night in Leeds
A despatch from Searchlight spies. The BNP civil war etc. Pure theatre.
Elsewhere
Paul Linford – The importance of faith
Katrina Forrester/OurKingdom – Home grown activism can shape parliament’s behaviour
Oleg Panfilov/Index on Censorship – Russia: Elections of the absurd
Mark Valladares/LDV – Opinion: What should the new leader do in his first 100 days? #5
Labour And Capital – Private equity and governance
tygerland – Huckabee’s breath of fresh air (a bit of fun)
I’m pushed for time, so that’s all I have time for today. If I have missed something, please drop a link in the comments for the other readers to follow. Thanks.
If you would like your blog or site to be considered as source material for future reviews, drop me an email at aaronh [at] liberalconspiracy [dot] org with the relevant url. I can then enter it into my RSS reader and monitor it for suitable content to be included. Likewise, if you have a specific article/post you feel deserves a little more traffic, get in touch.