It is very sad to hear that Clinton is making a victory speech in a state that doesn’t count for them, that’s desperation for you.

Question to think about, does Clinton do better out of the more closed primaries where independents are more limited (or prohibited) from voting? Currently it looks this way but is far too early in the day to really say for sure.

Yeah, she did sound very desperate. And her speech was once again a list rather than anything interesting. She’s gonna represent Florida apparently… well not according to the DNC!

Older and women voters were over-represented in this race, so she did well.

So McCain wins… we all realise he has huge general election appeal, don’t we?

Can he beat Obama or Clinton?

Clinton definitely. Obama probably.

Lee,

Had you come across this? It is probably right on the button, but it made my head hurt:

http://onegoodmove.org/1gm/

It’s the article by Charles Lemos, second down

Winning Florida come the election is going to be nigh on impossible for any democrat.

They have snubbed the state in the primaries and they face a strong republican movement there with a very popular republican governor.

So any little think that Clinton can do to win over a little support and emphasise the importance of the state is perfectly sensible.

Its one thing to get petty over internal party organisation – its quite another not to do every sensible thing in the name of eventually winning the presidential election.

And if that means giving a victory speech in a state that doesn’t matter, so be it.

plus – lets not rule out the democrats backsliding and letting representitives of the snubbed states sit. Florida is big and winning it would effectively secure the presidency.

6. It’s a bit late for backsliding, and should be politically impossible after super tuesday. If it’s clear the race is close, or even slightly in Obama’s favour, then reversing their decision on these states can only be seen as the party tampering with the result. That won’t do them any favours come the real test.

5. Great article, exactly the sort of thing I was talking about.

4. I don’t think anyone can accurately say for sure until after Tuesday. Clinton and McCain are neck and neck in the polls, and Obama and McCain are frequently swapping the lead.

I would argue that until the democrats have a clear winner (or likely winner) on their hands like they do now with McCain, they won’t do better than this in the polls, but could actually seeing Clinton or Obama pull out a big lead and a Tuesday overall win mean that opinions start to sway more towards them by the independents (certainly in Obama’s case) and therefore push them ahead in the polls over McCain?

>Clinton definitely. Obama probably.

The betting markets don’t agree. I’d trust them over polls.

Lee

If Tuesday indicates a strong lead for one or other there may be little harm in backsliding over Florida.

Even a symboloc climb down might help bolster the local democrat machine.

9. Polls don’t really say anything at the moment, they’re all over the place.

10. That’s true, but I just have this feeling that it is going to be pretty damn close. Would florida democrats be so petty as to harm their chances of power when they were warned not to move their date in advance? I guess the other question is if it matters so much to backslide if Obama becomes nominee because of his power over african americans and independents.

Lee

A core support may well not be concerned at the events of florida by the time of an election. But there will be a lot of less devoted activists who might be less inclined to pound the streets for a party that snubbed their state.

having said that – it may well be close and so backsliding would then be impossible.