Can the Democrats win on numbers?


by Sunny Hundal    
8:54 am - February 29th 2008

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CNN has an interesting look at how Democrat and Republican voters are shaping up:

Excluding caucuses, some 22 million Democratic votes have been cast in the primaries held to date. For Republicans, the number is 14.1 million. One reason Republicans cite now is the fact that the Democratic contest is highly competitive while the Republican race is all but over. But GOP turnout has been down since the beginning of the year — even when the Republican race was wide open.
…
But Republicans also see an upside: Despite the clear Democratic intensity advantage, Sen. John McCain still runs statistically even or better in most of the national polls looking ahead to the general election. The latest Ohio Poll also shows McCain very competitive in the state.

So there’s good and bad news. As long as Democrat voters across the US keep up their enthusiasm and vote in greater numbers than Republicans, they should be able to take the election.

Another interesting development is how Republicans look to be eschewing dirty tactics around Obama’s name. Hell, even the white supremacists can’t get themselves angry enough about him. How bizarre.

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About the author
Sunny Hundal is editor of LC. Also: on Twitter, at Pickled Politics and Guardian CIF.
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Story Filed Under: Blog ,Foreign affairs ,United States


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Reader comments


1. Lee Griffin

Hmm, I would take the latter half with a pinch of salt. Statistically McCain is less popular than Obama (who is on an upward trend in almost every poll) where it matters, the swing states. He is “competitive” in Ohio to the tune of being within or just around the margin of error. What’s important to remember here is the context. Ohio is a republican state after 2004, though obviously marginally. The real tell for McCain’s threat to the Democrat bid is his popularity in states like Virginia and Oregon.

I’ve gone into things a bit already on here.

Of course it’s far too early to tell really, but the key here is like you say, how many vote and how many independents go each way.

2. ad

So as long as more Democrats vote than Republicans they should be able to win?

I’d guessed that myself…

I cannot help but think of all those predictions from less than a year ago saying that Clinton was certain to be the Democratic nominee. And that McCain was finished.


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