Politics and the transfer market

by Michael Calderbank
4:50 pm - April 11th 2008

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With recent reports suggesting that the government might introduce the Alternative Vote (AV) system for elections to the House of Commons, the issue of how preferences transfer between parties is becoming a hot political topic.

Conservative MP Daniel Kawczynski has already written to The Guardian accusing Labour of wanting “to move the electoral goalposts to rig the result”. This is fiercely denied, and with some justification. The motive for change is at least in part a response to what would be the strengthened mandate of a reformed Second Chamber, combined with the need to reinforce the legitimacy of MPs by ensuring they can no longer be elected on the basis of a small minority of the electorate.

However, the belief amongst some of its proponents that AV would potentially allow for the emergence of a progressive and enduring anti-Tory bloc may well be expediting moves towards reform. Those who believe Labour’s electoral position would be strengthened in elections held under AV tend to assume that Labour would receive a net gain from Liberal Democrat second preferences in comparison to the Conservatives.

The London Mayoral Election (conducted using the Supplementary Vote, a truncated version of AV) provides an interesting test-case for the effects of votes transferring from the Lib Dems. According to a recent Guardian/ICM poll, although Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson were almost neck-and-neck on first preferences, the net effect of the transfers would be to hand victory to the Conservatives. Time will tell whether this will materialize, or whether the Lib Dems voters will take fright at such a prospect.

As Peter Hain has pointed out, damaging Labour’s electoral chances at this stage would seem a strange way to persuade the government of the merits of preferential voting. In any case, are Liberal Democrats in London necessarily representative of their voters nationwide? In traditionally safe Tory seats in the South, for example, would the anti-incumbency factor not still tend mitigate against the sitting MP, and help to unify the progressive challenge by avoiding votes splitting between parties of the centre-left?

But even if there were indeed to be evidence of a skew towards Labour amongst Lib Dem second preferences, it does not automatically follow that chances of the Conservatives forming a majority government would be significantly diminished. With existing boundaries already giving the Tories an uphill task, modelling conducting by Lewis Baston for the Make Votes Count coalition suggests that AV would not in itself put a Conservative majority permanently out of reach.

Especially given David Cameron’s attempts to reposition the party to appeal to voters in the political centre-ground, AV could potentially even help the Conservatives given a moderate lead in the national share of the vote, since preferences could tip Labour seats their way which would not have been lost under First-Past-the-Post (FPTP).

AV is not a proportional system and there are circumstances, albeit fairly exceptional, where the winning party’s majority would be inflated even further than under FPTP.

A large Labour lead, it is true, might be further exaggerated under AV. But since this is unlikely to be the scenario at the next election, Conservative opponents of reform are on shaky ground when they claim that AV would represent a cynical manipulation of the electoral system for Labour’s partisan advantage. Equally, it suggests that centre-left advocates of AV ought to concentrate on the democratic merits of the system rather than on perceived political advantage.

For, despite the political uncertainties, we are already able to assert with confidence some of the positive features of preferential voting in practice. Firstly, whoever emerges as the victor, we can be sure they will not have been elected on a small minority of votes cast (as can happen with MPs elected under First-Past-the-Post), but will have been endorsed by a wider section of the electorate. And since they know that they are likely to need to appeal beyond the ranks of their own party’s supporters, candidates are given every incentive to build a broader base of support. Equally those that engage in exaggerated attacks on their opponents are pursuing a self-defeating strategy.

Significantly, too, the ability to cast a first vote for a candidate of your choice without the fear that it will be totally wasted will expose the hitherto concealed factors at play in tactical voting. For example, Green Party supporters won’t have to put aside their allegiance in areas where their party enjoys little support in order to cast a vote that matters. So preferential voting both offers incentives to improve the quality of debate, it also tends to increase the quantity of meaningful choice on offer to the voter.

Of course, AV will be no panacea if introduced for the election of our MPs. Often the distribution of seats will not be in proportion to the share of the votes each party receives. It will still be entirely possible for single parties to form a majority with a relatively small minority of first preference votes. Significantly, too, it will not eliminate the existence of “electoral wastelands” where voters feel they already know the outcome and their vote would be meaningless.

Whilst MPs cling to the model of single-member constituency monopolies, this cannot be properly addressed. Nevertheless, as a preferential system AV would at least represent an important extension of choice for the voter, and increase the legitimacy of individual MPs by ensuring that they received the support of a greater percentage of the voters. It would therefore nevertheless represent a significant first step on the road to a properly democratic way of electing our representatives.

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About the author
This is a guest post. Michael Calderbank is the Political Campaigns officer for the Electoral Reform Society. He is also associate editor of Renewal magazine.
· Other posts by Michael Calderbank

Story Filed Under: Blog ,Debates ,Mayor election ,Our democracy ,Westminster

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