Judging by the rumoured figures (from Conservative Home apparently, though widely reported), it’ll be very close for a Johnson win on first prefs alone. If they’re accurate and representative and there’s anything like uniform swing then I make it about 50% on first preferences. He’s also 1/16 on betfair. I’ve never been happier not to be a Londoner.

A glass of top notch white wine for me tonight – either to celebrate Ken’s going or to brace myself for more of him.

Boris will be fine and if any moaners actually do follow through on their “I’m leaving town” billshit I will eat my hat.

Have a nice long weekend and catch up on your sleep!

I was never a fan of Ken. And while I think Boris is affable, he’s be an utter disaster as mayor.

Mind you, It’ll be hilarious.

I hope it at least goes to second preferences… but it’s not looking like it.

Interesting that the 45 per cent turnout is being described as ‘high’. In local election terms it is. But after saturation coverage of an event revolving around the nearest politics gets to ‘celebrities’ it seems that 55 per cent of registered voters don’t care enough to turn out. That must be saying something…

From ‘thelondonpaper’ live blog (http://elections.thelondonpaper.com/liveblog/)

Current share of the Mayoral vote
Johnson: 520,905 – Livingstone: 454,518 – Paddick: 105,187 (22:08, May 02)

These presumably being the first preference vote, that gives Boris less than 50%. So there’s still hope.

There’s only one solid Ken constituency left – Lambeth and Southwark. The rest will probably all comfortably go to Boris. He might yet do it on first preferences.

After these seats in 2004 Ken was something like 140,000 ahead rather than 70,000 behind.

Depressing, grim stuff.

“The closeness of the race dmonstrates that the newspapers have little impact.”

That doesn’t follow at all Sunny. The closeness of the result only goes to show what a pernicious effect all that press bias has. Do you honestly think if the combined weight of all the papers you mentioned went the other way, then the result wouldn’t have gone the other way as well? Do you not think the Standard’s continual carpet bombing may not have pushed it a couple of points in their man’s direction? That was all that was needed after all.

What? what?? what happened!!!

What’s the latest?? My poker hasnt started yet but i’m already losing control of my faculties…

Ben – but they barely mentioned to shift a few points… it basically means that papers cannot shift elections, only push in the direction the wind is already blowing. There were a lot of people annoyed with Ken and lots who thought he was getting tired. Me included. So that sort of worked against him. But if this was four years ago, I don’t think Ken would have lost…

150,000 after first preferences. About 500,000 2nd preferences I think so they have to break more than 65%-35%. Not going to happen.

Dave Hill wrote on his last update: “[Q]uite a lot of people don’t actually cast a second preference because they don’t understand the system”.

It makes you despair…

Well, it’s official. Hangus the Monkey has a soulmate.

At least it was closer than the Evening Standard was suggesting, going to second preferences. Greens did fantastically well also, the UKIP and Respect/Left List vote collapsing, although the BNP also made gains, sadly.

I suppose plenty of people would have given both 1 and 2 to minor candidates too rather than use it properly. Even Paddick inexplicably gave his second preference to the Left List.

Out tonight at a mate’s birthday – no one could believe the result. My Sunday Times reading oil industry mate voted Sian/Ken. Only one of the guys voted for him, and got a load of abuse from the rest of us. So who the hell did vote for Boris?

Roll on the inevitable cockup. Disillusion with democracy moves up a notch – that’s one less competent politician out of a field of one.

Oh, bugger.

I guess about 10% of voters voted for the bottom 8 but didn’t give their 2nd prefs to the top 2 which is about as good as we could have hoped for.

Well done london. You voted for a racist overweight buffon who is only known because of his celebrity. It shows you are morons who let newspaers decide who to lead you.

Don’t expect sympathy the next time you want even more money from the rest of the country.

Oh c’mon now, I’m not sure thats entirely fair.

Most of my brown friends who voted for Boris (I plan to shoot them soon enough, don’t worry) did so on bizarre reasoning which seemed more to be driven by gut instinct that London needed a change. Many blamed Ken for bizarre issues (one, for too many speed bumps and speed cameras).

To be honest I don’t think the citisenry is informed about the candidates or the role of the Mayor itself, and just wanted to see a change. I’m not convinced the Evening Standard had much effect… not one of my (non-Muslim) friends even mentioned al-Qaradawi.

That’s right, Sunny – blame the voters! Thank goodness Livingstone is dead wood. As a gay man, I shall never forgive him for snogging the homicidal homophobe Qaradawi. As for Boris, let’s wait and see.

I find it difficult to believe so many Londoners take Boris seriously. That or they don’t take the office seriously. Either way etc.

Heh.