1) I’d expect the Old Etonians to be slightly more socially liberal than the shopkeepers’ daughters and the estate agents (hell, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were more economically left-wing as well, noblesse oblige and all that…)

2) I’d be amazed if the BNP won anywhere (unless they’re in line for a Welsh Assembly top-up seat – I don’t know enough about Welsh electoral dynamics to comment – but certainly not in Westminster). Even in their council strongholds there’s no way in hell they’ll gain a plurality across a whole Westminster constituency, and I’m willing to stake large amounts of cash with anyone who believes otherwise.

I’m going to emigrate to another country, blame all the immigrants here as the reason for doing so, and get a big cheque out of the Daily Mail for doing so!

Right, well I feel completly depressed now…

“Are there any Labour supporters reading this ”
I doubt it; there aren’t an awful lot of them left at all!

I’m hesitant to believe that either the BNP or the Greens have a serious chance of winning seats in the current system. IMO neither are ‘single issue’ or ‘personaility’ enough to win an entire constituency like Galloway or Martin Bell did.

What we desperately need is a PR ‘top-up’ system like New Zealand so that we can get some more diversity in the house. Labour screwed up the opportunity to do this ten or so years ago and should now be regretting it profoundly.

Paul: The irony is that potentially Labour could have saved their future selves by doing what they promised and delivering electoral reform. Now they’ll suffer (if they lose) from the very biased FPTP system that they’ve enjoyed riding on the waves of for the last 6 or so years

Um, Labour have always been run by establishment types from the Old Etonian Clem Attlee, through to Fettes-educated Tony Blair, St Paul’s Girls-educated Harriet Harman and Brown’s crop of Scottish mafia, so I’m not sure it was ever an accurate claim that they have been an adequate repository for socialism. Tony Benn and his aristocratic dynasty, anyone?

Sorry, but Labour were a sham before they failed, they are still a sham now and will continue to be until they go bankrupt and implode. So not long to wait then!

“To cap it all, at some point towards the end of that second bottle of cabernet sauvignon, confirmation is likely to come in that the British National Party have secured fascist parliamentary representation”

Frankly I view this comment as scare-mongering, evidence please.

Probably Dennis Skinner changing sides…

Oh, diddums, the end of what you think is civilisation! Horror of horrors!

Well, I remember the 1945 election, which was a stunning blow to little old ladies of both sexes, many of whom anticipated being stripped of not only their investments, but of their garments and hanged from the nearest lamp post. Of course it didn’t happen; nor will it in 2009 or 10. As you yourself say, “in one sense, Cameronism is likely to mean Blairism by other means, just as Blairism was in many important senses a continuation of Thatcherism”. Exactly. So do cheer up.

I don’t think it will make a whole lot of difference so long as the EU constitution gets through. It won’t matter which party’s photo fit leader will be smiling outside Downing Street. The vast majority of policy and laws passed will be social democratic with the odd mix of free market reform. Blairism might not have been so much Blair, as Blair going with the flow.

Nina—I thought very similar, but thought I’d go look at some numbers first. From here:
http://results.londonelects.org.uk/Results/DownloadResults.aspx
this spreadsheet:
http://results.londonelects.org.uk/Results/xls/04_city_east.xls

I’ve filtered it by Westminster Constituency, and in Dagenham and Rainham for Constituency member the BNP came first, for top up member they were 0.5% behind. In Barking they’re also close, although nowhere near that close.

Sure, it’s not a Parliamentary election, but in that seat they’re the clear 2nd place candidate and are challenging Labour for top. I thought it was bollocks as well until I did the maths (which I started doing when Dave posted this).

I don’t think they’ll actually win, it’s only 28% and there were a lot of splinter group candidates, but it’s a clear threat and it could happen.

I doubt Respect or the Greens have a chance anywhere though.

As a nondescript Lib Dem, I’ll be laughing my arse off.

Not only will the rag-tag-and-bobtail of the political extremes not win any seats – the Lib Dems will also be decimated. Watch what happens at the Henley by-election. (They may of course pick up a few seats from Labour, especially where – as in Chestefield – there’s no local Labour party to speak of.)

Whilst Cameron would seem to be “nailed on” for two terms, there are two elephant traps awaiting him in the long grass. One – the conflicting demands of the economic liberals and the populists for diametrically opposed immigration policies – I expect him to be able to finesse, at least in his first term. The other – Europe – may be less easy. If, as seems likely, he gets a hundred or so more MPs than he needs for a working majority, there will be not a few who find that their hopes of ministerial office are dashed, and who will be attracted to the publicity that is always given rebels of whatever stripe.

And of course, his desire to govern less and to decentralise is always a more attractive policy in opposition than in government.

I had hoped that this would be a piece about how Labour might begin to renew itself in opposition. But perhaps what David Osler fears is not so much the loss of 200 seats on election night, as the Labour Party collapsing into splinters in the following couple of years.

“When health secretary Nadine Dorries comes back with a second attempt to reduce abortion time limits, don’t put money on Respect Renewal MPs opposing the legislation.”

This is worrying.

As for the rest: Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

“As a nondescript Lib Dem, I’ll be laughing my arse off.”

What, even when the Tories take at least half of your parliamentary seats? I have to admit that will be my only moment of joy on what will undoubtedly be a very long and dark night for Labour.

Oh, the morning after I shall be all “woe is me”, rather like I was the morning after Blair got in. But on the night I shall be giggling like a loon. I hope Blears and Kelly are among the scalps.

“What, even when the Tories take at least half of your parliamentary seats? I have to admit that will be my only moment of joy on what will undoubtedly be a very long and dark night for Labour.”

Takes quite a masochistic person to take joy in a further reduced chance of opposing tory policy given how like minded Labour and Lib Dem’s tend to be. Do you get invited to late night treats by Max Mosley by any chance?

BTW, I’m still sticking my neck out for hung parliament. I see 2009 being the year the Tories fucked it up on policy announcements while Labour manage to at least get some stability, and we’ll be in no man’s land. People are too pent up on current polls as if they mean something, 6 months ago Labour were going to get a bigger majority in the house, now after just a month of polling everyone is so certain the Tories are going to sweep it all away?

I’m not going to be surprised if the Tories do manage a landslide victory, don’t get me wrong, but hell there is at least a year to go before you can have a hope of accurately calling a winner.

Innocent:

the Lib Dems will also be decimated. Watch what happens at the Henley by-election

Um, if the Lib Dems come close in Henley they’ll be very happy, if they win they’ll rightfully be ecstatic, it’s a safe Tory seat and the Tories are on the up currently, denting the majority there significantly will hurt Cameron.

As to the idea of the LDs being “decimated” or as Yozza puts it “Tories take at least half of your parliamentary seats“?

I doubt it, strongly—there are undoubtedly going to be seats lost to the Tories, but I reckon there may also be seats gained, LDs fight very local campaigns and some of the most marginal on paper really aren’t. They’ll lose some, but, well, decimation (as in 1-in-10 ie 6ish) might be about right.

But they’ll gain a minimum of 20 from Labour, probably many more than that. My current guess is they’ll be about the same as they are now minimum, probably higher than that. That’s looking at the polling numbers and running them through a few predictors.

If there’s a Tory landslide, the number of LD MPs gained from Labour will be even higher, just as ’97 surprised everyone.

Just to go against the flow I’d like to point out that you can get very good odds for an autumn 2009 GE, despite the fact that Brown has effectively had a dry run at preparing the timetable and it is one of the only trump cards he has left to catch the opposition parties and media off-guard.

[19] I knew I shouldn’t have said “decimated”.

The point about the Henley by-election is that it will give confirmation (or otherwise) of the extent to which the Tories have regained those voters they leaked to the Liberal Democrats from the early 1990s onwards. My expectation is that there will be a swing to the Tories of 8%-10% (i.e. about half the size of that in Crewe).

The problem for Clegg and his party is that this would cost them 20-30 seats at a General Election, while they are within hailing distance of Labour in only half a dozen.