Yes, it’s worth remembering that Clinton’s two victories both came out of campaigns in which there was a far stronger third party presence than seems to be the case this time.

I believe the Democrats have hit a problem in Florida, and while BHO doesn’t need that State to win, he does need it to have the kind of mandate you’re talking about.

Walter Mondale wasn’t a liberal, and his losing campaign is what gave liberalism a bad name.

Mondale deserved to lose in 84 and it was ultimately a good thing that he lost, just like McCain deserves to lose and will reprove the old truth that the public does know best.

I’m not sure what Mike means about Florida. The last 5 polls I’ve seen average to a 5% Obama lead.

The New Yorker has an interesting article currently on the working class in Ohio and why they’re not all that enthused about Obama. It’s not just race. Some just don’t believe that he can cut taxes for everyone earning $250 000 and under, or that he understands the pressures they’re under. Richard Sennett said as much the other day, that “change you can believe in” doesn’t ring true if change has never been about you:

“The centre-left agenda for reform has seldom focused on such bread-and-butter issues as better vocational schools, insurance against industrial accidents, or skills-development programmes for salesmen, secretaries and clerks; these issues don’t register on the political radar just because they are so ordinary, so boring, so unexciting. The fatalism of American workers emerges as a result: those who say they are on your side don’t see you.”

The Obama campaign knows that despite having a slim lead in key states, their victory will depend on turnout: the 40/20, or the 40/30/20, plan. What’s key, though, is that this doesn’t focus on the white working class over the age of 40 years old. Obama would like their votes, but he only needs enough of them, they are not his base.

The short answer to the question posed by the title is yes and Palin and all that are incidental to the fact that a very annoyed American working class has been swung over to Obama by the bail-out.,.

Walter Mondale wasn’t a liberal, and his losing campaign is what gave liberalism a bad name. ~ thomas

The liberal roots wanted Gary Hart to win – who was more to their taste, but to claim that Mondale’s campaign wasn’t liberal simply isn’t true.

I’m not placing any bets on McCain losing as bad polls have been turned around before.

However, he has run an abysmal campaign, he selected an atrocious VP and is following on fron Bush who’s approval ratings are rock bottom.

If the Democrats can’t win this then something is utterly, utterly wrong with the universe.

[5] Maybe not the Universe, but with the Democrats for sure.

I’m desultorily reading James McPherson’s “Battle Cry of Freedom” in the Oxford History of the US series, and I’m struck by the similarity of the (pre-war) Southern hatred of Abolitionists to the current conservative hatred of “liberals” in the USA to-day. Fortunately, the conservatives’ views on questions of sexual morality or the desirability of a “Christian” amendment to the Constitution do not correspond to any vested economic interests.

McCain’s daughter isn’t black, she’s Bangladeshi Asian.

Only dinosaur Asians call themselves black after Lozelles.

@Aaron

eh? Mondale was a social democrat who espoused some forms of liberalism, but certainly not a liberal. I know it’s easy to get confused by the way British descriptions have coloured our understanding, but don’t be fooled.

As someone who wants Obama to win, there are a number of ways he could still lose:

- the white working class apathy that I mentioned above
- something dramatic could happen in the final debate on Wednesday night
- Biden could put his foot in mouth even worse than he already has (FDR and TV; encouraging people in wheelchairs to stand up and address crowds)
- Obama is under 50 years old, and the electorate could be cautious about youth in a time of two wars … elderly turnout is historically bigger than youth turnout
- the comparison with Lincoln is interesting (only 2 years in Congress before becoming President; Illinois lawyer), but the electorate could still break for what they consider to be “experience”

Most plausibly, people could be swayed by the American idea of checks and balances … a Republican President to confront a Democratic Congress which has even lower approval ratings than Dubya.

Reassuringly, the Obama campaign is not taking anything for granted (moving their lead campaign organisers to Florida as a “force multiplier”; buying a 30 minute block of advertising on the 29th of Baractober, six days before the election).

Mike,

Ré Florida.

I believe the Democrats have hit a problem in Florida, and while BHO doesn’t need that State to win, he does need it to have the kind of mandate you’re talking about.

What exactly is the problem? Yesterday’s Rasmussen poll showed a + 5% for Obama. OK, it’s not a killer margin, but it is still outwith the MoE, is it not? Is there a trend or something that I haven’t spotted?

This is the problem:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/14/us/politics/14mahoney.html?em

#9

It was liberal in the American sense. But then, I’m not going to argue the meaning (L)liberal with you, which would take us a long time and probably not get us anywhere.

The article is not about Mondale.

“it’s easy to get confused by the way British descriptions have coloured our understanding”

You get confused by definitions that are correct?

“a Republican President to confront a Democratic Congress which has even lower approval ratings than Dubya”

no, this is a standard Republican Lie. Bush is 22-28% ‘approve’ and 65-75% ‘disapprove’, while Congress is 39-49% ‘approve’ and 40-56% ‘disapprove’. Pretending that the numbers show anything else involves some seriously crooked and egregious lying (and yes, I know there are plenty of people in the campaign who’re happy to do this.

Source: Congress ratings; GWB ratings

Definitions have context, regardless of what you think is correct or not.

This was always Obama’s election to lose, than McCain’s to win, to be honest. I’m glad that Obama has run a tight and disciplined campaign and this should be a good indicator to all those who say he is inexperienced. The man has shown more political skill and good judgement than most of us thought possible from someone so new to Washington.

There are a lot of factors which can turn this around in the last few days, which is why its still scary. Obama’s team is pretty confident of winning Florida, which is good because if he wins that, its pretty much in the bag.

I’m looking forward to the debate because so far they’ve helped Obama, not McCain.

Mike @ 12,

Thanks, I’d read about that and then forgotten about it. As you say, Florida voters are likely to see it as a negative. Although fivethirtyeight.com still shows a slightly more than marginal Obama lead. So, you have to ask, is this factored in to voters intentions, or not?

Contrary to some, I have no idea.

Is American politics much different from our own? I’d have thought, correct me if I am wrong, that Barak Obama is unlikely to be tainted by this. They are voting for a President after all, who has his own issues, distinctly seperate from these. Do you think the local effects the national?

Given that US political discourse is swinging out of hand, the ACORN fandango being the most recent example, and the racist agenda at McCain / Palin rallies, I think they are at a cusp.

Do they vote for what they know, or do they vote for change?

At the moment it is too close to call. I am fascinated that something as, relatively, trivial as this could be world changing…….

Bloody hell, someones sex life could effect the lives or deaths of millions of Iranians, say. Hopefully not.

John @ 15

I think you should take a closer look at the PollingReport.com website.

You provided the most recent polls for Bush’s approval ratings, but you provided the wrong llink for Congress. Your link referred to polling questions in late 2007 and January 2008.

Here is the current ratings for Congress.

As you’ll see, -60.4% disapproval for Congress (average of the last 5 polls cited), and -46.2% for Bush (the last 5 polls averaged out).

Scott Redding: Most plausibly, people could be swayed by the American idea of checks and balances … a Republican President to confront a Democratic Congress which has even lower approval ratings than Dubya.

Yeah…except the voters seemed quite happy to let the Republicans have all three branches of government until 2006, while the Republicans were quite happy with Bush having unlimited executive power above and beyond the law… I heard one ‘Republican strategist’ make your argument on Newsnight yesterday: it’s funny how they believe in ‘checks and balances’ now that they’re losing.

I think talk of Mondale is relevant to this thread as McCain will be to the Republicans and ‘bipartisanship’ what Mondale was to the Democrats and ‘liberalism’.

Yes, the last three weeks are going to be nerve-racking for Obama supporters but the fact that his campaign has kept a firm hand on the tiller and hasn’t got carried away tells me that they aren’t prepared to throw it away now. If so, I think Obamas lead will grow with every day the campaign lasts, as each day McCain looks one day older.

On that note, Sunny, I’m glad you’ve returned refreshed and no longer promoting your dirty culture war of yore – how’dya think that’d've gone?

“Yeah…except the voters seemed quite happy to let the Republicans have all three branches of government until 2006, while the Republicans were quite happy with Bush having unlimited executive power above and beyond the law… I heard one ‘Republican strategist’ make your argument on Newsnight yesterday: it’s funny how they believe in ‘checks and balances’ now that they’re losing.”

Yes, just like the democrat party call for bipartisanship when they where out of power.

About the polls- The poll internals still show that a large amount of voters “5 to 10 precent” may change their minds. Plus, Most of those polls are not reliable. Obama still has not closed the deal. The best weapon Obama has is the media trying to tell everyone its over when the election is on Nov 4th.

On that note, I call on the silent majority to get out and vote. We are the ones that can put Mc Cain ahead and in the white house not pollsters or media pundits.