The benefit of inequality


by Chris Dillow    
12:26 pm - October 30th 2008

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The UK’s tax system is regressive* and income inequality is high. Whilst the left bemoans these facts, they might be necessary for Darling’s plan to increase borrowing to succeed in supporting economic activity.

Last night, Darling said the rise in borrowing would be only temporary. He promised to “return borrowing and debt to a sustainable level – once these shocks have worked through.”

This raises an obvious question. If government borrowing today merely means lower state spending or higher taxes tomorrow, why should it boost aggregate economic activity at all? Won’t it just cause tax-payers to save in anticipation of higher future taxes, or public sector workers to save in anticipation of redundancy?

This is, of course, the challenge of the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis. This says that fiscal policy is impotent, because people should save in anticipation of higher future taxes, which is what borrowing is.

But here‘s a stroke of luck for Darling. This paper (pdf) finds that the UK is one of the few countries in which Ricardian equivalence is wrong. So perhaps fiscal policy might work.

How can this be?

It‘s not necessarily because people are short-sighted. It‘s because they are liquidity-constrained – they can’t save or borrow enough.

Put yourself in the shoes of a poorly-paid person. You might anticipate higher taxes in five years’ time. But what can you do about it? You’re struggling to pay rent and leccy bills today. You just can’t save as a precaution against future problems – you’ve enough on your plate making ends meet now.

Looser fiscal policy, therefore, might expand future activity insofar as its counterpart – higher future taxes – bear upon this person.

But what if we had a more progressive tax system, with taxes only levied upon those of us who can afford to save? We might well trim spending on fripperies to save more. We would then be in the world of Ricardian equivalence, in which public borrowing was offset by private saving.

To see what I mean, imagine if Darling had said last night: “Increased borrowing in the near-term will mean higher future taxes, but I will only impose these upon people earning £100,000 a year.” Wouldn’t we then see an offsetting fall in private sector activity, as these people saved more or just emigrated?

My point is simple. What allows Darling’s fiscal policy to work is the fact that taxes fall upon people who can‘t save. If the poor were better off – and so able to save – or if taxes were more progressive, fiscal policy would be less powerful.

Personally, I’d prefer a world of greater equality and less powerful fiscal policy. But not everyone shares my preference.

* Direct taxes cut the Gini coefficient by 4 points, but indirect taxes raise it by 5, according to table 2 of this pdf.

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About the author
Chris Dillow is a regular contributor and former City economist, now an economics writer. He is also the author of The End of Politics: New Labour and the Folly of Managerialism. Also at: Stumbling and Mumbling
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Story Filed Under: Blog ,Economy ,Equality ,Labour party


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Reader comments


1. Andrew Adams

This raises an obvious question. If government borrowing today merely means lower state spending or higher taxes tomorrow, why should it boost aggregate economic activity at all? Won’t it just cause tax-payers to save in anticipation of higher future taxes, or public sector workers to save in anticipation of redundancy?

No, people just don’t make this kind of calculation, and couldn’t if they wanted to. Who knows what the balance between future tax cuts and public spending cuts might be, or over what time scale they might happen, or which taxes or areas of public spending might be affected?

Is it not a classic left/right scenario? The left believe in taking our money and spending it for us, because they patoronisingly believe they are superior, whereas the right or liberal tories believe in allowing individuals the freedom to spend their own money and therefore control their own destiny.

3. Aaron Heath

Is it not a classic left/right scenario? The left believe in taking our money and spending it for us, because they patoronisingly believe they are superior, whereas the right or liberal tories believe in allowing individuals the freedom to spend their own money and therefore control their own destiny. ~ chavscum

Errr. What about liberal/lefties who don’t believe in big government, like me?

The thing is, I also reject subsidies, protectionism and other forms of crony capitalism that the right (in practice *winks*) seems so wedded to.

Hmmm. Looks like you’ll be voting Tory then!

So Thatcher was right? What about subsidies in World threatened by global warming and over-population?

5. Andrew Adams

The argument is about whether some things are best done collectively rather than individually, it’s not about whether the government knows best how individuals should spend their money.

6. Aaron Heath

Hmmm. Looks like you’ll be voting Tory then!

Did I miss a memo? Is Ken Clarke in charge now?

I wouldn’t vote for Cameron. He’s an empty suit – a vapid populist, whose political positions are framed by the national mood. He has no ideology or apparent intellectual prowess.

Are you referring to subsidising new forms of energy?

If political parties wish to use public funds to directly fund investment in alternative energy needs, then they should run on this platform, and if elected, do so. But any technologies developed using tax-payers money, should be the property of (bar any relevant private investment returns), the taxpayer – meaning any spending is revenue neutral or better.

I would have liked to have seen an investigation into the nationalisation of Rover, with the emphasis in – working with someone like Toyota or Honda – new engine technologies. A percentage of any new patents would be the property of the British people, meaning that we could own very profitable technology.

We could also take into account any improvements to our trade balance – if we go onto import less oil as a result.

Public investment can be profitable (hell, major Western cities are often using public funds to generate wealth), if it’s managed well and financially robust.

Keynsian demand management is so, like, last century. And it doesn’t work.

8. Aaron Heath

Keynsian demand management is so, like, last century. And it doesn’t work.

Now I’m not arguing for Keynsian policies (I’m talking about investment based on demonstrated returns, not public investment for employment generation), but history dictates that wealth generation was much higher when Western economies were practising Keynsian economics.

Wealth disparity has also grown in the modern, post-Milton Friedman, age.

Stating it doesn’t work, without demonstrating your reasoning, is weak.

Robert Skidelsky ::

But if we look at the historical record, the liberal regime of the 1950s and 1960s was more successful than the conservative regime that followed. Outside China and India, whose economic potential was unleashed by market economics [yet is wedded to central control and public investment projects], economic growth was faster and much more stable in the Keynesian golden age than in the age of Friedman; its fruits were more equitably distributed; social cohesion and moral habits better maintained. These are serious benefits to weigh against some business sluggishness.

” wouldn’t vote for Cameron. He’s an empty suit – a vapid populist, whose political positions are framed by the national mood. He has no ideology or apparent intellectual prowess”

So, Aaron, you never voted for Blair?

10. Aaron Heath

So, Aaron, you never voted for Blair?

I did. Twice.

I also cheated on my [then] wife, which I’m also regretful of.

Any more personal regrets you wish to highlight?

How could you do such a terrible thing? (vote for Blair)

iI can understand you cheating on your wife, as you live in Estonia.

12. Aaron Heath

How could you do such a terrible thing? (vote for Blair)

I’m an idealist – I still support the fundamentals of what Blair – initially (prior to 2003) – stood for.

I *still* consider Robin Cook a model for future foreign secretaries. I support the move to improve equality for gay people. And, having gone to a state school under Thatcher, I know that education improved under New Labour.

“The thing is, I also reject subsidies, protectionism and other forms of crony capitalism that the right (in practice *winks*) seems so wedded to.”

I don’t think the right is wedded to those ideas. I think regardless of their original ideology, ruling parties come to regard them as useful, because they are good for getting by day-to-day and people keep stuffing money into their pockets* in return for following those policies.

*Obviously not usually directly anymore, but through understandings of good employment options for their friends and themselves later on


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