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Why McCain is likely to fail


by Sunny Hundal    
November 3, 2008 at 7:55 am

I want to continue the theme of aggression in politics because I think that a new movement of the non-establishment liberal left needs to strategically use aggression to push ideas and policies into the mainstream. So, in response to my article on why Democrats need to be more aggressive, Sunder Katwala says:

…the Republican right in particular is fundamentally interested in driving an anti-government, anti-politics message. If they can get the public into the position of thinking “I don’t like it, but they are all pretty much the same” then this serves their agenda much more than that of the progressive left, because it limits severely the possibilities of politics and government.

It’s a compelling argument that needs more examination, but I think the Republican message is more sophisticated than that. Both Democrats and Republicans have a base: the former is more fired up by positivity, the letter is fired up more by resentment towards liberals and the idea that they will take away their guns or destroy American wealth/power/chruch. But it’s the independent/swing voters that matter.

What Republicans do really well is use emotional messaging to connect to voters who are not financially threatened, to say that they share similar values that makes the Republicans more comfortable to them. This has been drummed relentlessly through the narrative that “upscale latte-sipping liberals” look down on middle America (a meme that many self-loathing lefties here have also bought into).

Furthermore, Republicans are shameless about outright lying to frame Democrats as being bad for the country, that doesn’t just make people say politics is shit but also ends up raising doubts in the minds of swing voters. There’s nothing to suggest that less mud slinging (in the UK for example) leads to less apathy. In fact it may even rile up the respective bases so much that participation increases – as it will this year. McCain has gotten serious slack for negative campaigning because of various factors: (a) he played the ‘nice-guy maverick’ narrative and then went against it; (b) Obama’s campaign highlighted his negativity while downplaying theirs; (c) Obama had more money to run positive ads and drown out his negative ads; (d) Outside orgs didn’t go negative on Obama hard enough

If you do negative campaigning properly – it works. McCain’s mistake has been to not be clever about it.


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About the author
Sunny Hundal is editor of LC. Also: on Twitter, at Pickled Politics and Guardian CIF.
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Reader comments

Am I the only person who had Paul Staines in mind when reading that?

2. Mike Killingworth

There is one point about the “latte-supping liberal” which won’t go away. Every kid brought up in small-town America has a choice – to stay, or to go to the bright lights of the big city. I remember some years ago revisiting the (basically rural) county where I was brought up and being told that “I’d lost my accent” – although most Londoners have no trouble in pegging it north of the Trent. I took this for a shorthand way of expressing a mild resentment about the fact that I’d chosen to settle in London. People who stay with their small-town roots will always feel this way – “you stuck-up git, we’re not good enough for you, huh?”

In America, surely, this is strengthened by the sheer size of the place and also by the enduring memory of the Civil Wat, in which a basically rural polity was trashed by an urbanising one, creating an image of the city as predator which is but dimly apprehended on this side of the pond.

The strength of the left always has been and always will be urban, at least in societies where feudalism is found only in hostory books. And the city tolerates – that’s what makes it work. And that’s why the right will always be more “aggressive” than the left. It is wise to conduct the struggle on ground of one’s own choosing, not the opponent’s.

I’m sorry for be relentlessly on your case, but you are guilty of conflating ideas into politically-charged language which has the effect of perverting normal logic.

Being against mud-slinging is not to be against proper scrutiny, just as being for higher standards in public life is not to be against attacking your opponent where it can be justified.

Answering Obama’s critics on free trade issues, choice or gun laws is necessary, but responding in any detail to gossip that he may be a communist or a terrorist only risks enflaming public response.

I’m glad you’ve finally acknowledged it is the independents and swing voters who are decisive in all elections, so whether ‘latte-sipping’ can be judged on balance to be a damaging epithet depends entirely on an analysis of how far it has permeated into the mainstream of national life – equally cultural shifts lead by global economics mean the SUV/Prius divide has a different dynamic than it did four years ago.


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