Race in British politics: reasons to be cheerful
3:31 pm - November 6th 2008
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When will we see a British Obama in 10 Downing Street? The story of race in Britain – how the rise and fall of Empire transformed the society we have become – is different to America’s history of slavery, segregation and the long march to civil rights.
As Obama’s election throws the spotlight on progress here, we should challenge the ‘only in America’ idea put forward by KA Dilday in his correspondence with Anthony Barnett on OpenDemocracy. An Obama – like a Thatcher – can be a once in a lifetime strike of political lightning.
But the chances of a British Obama are improving fast. That challenges the gloomy conventional wisdom about diversity in British politics. Twenty years after the first four black and Asian MPs were elected, there are only 15 non-white MPs in the House of Commons: there would be 60 if the House of Commons had a similar ethnic mix to the country as a whole. Those figures do show that it has been harder for black and Asian citizens to get into Parliament.
And so campaigners argue that the ethnic penalty remains high and that there will never be a level playing field unless special measures – like the all women shortlists used by Labour – are introduced. But, on that, the conventional wisdom is out-of-date. The good news from new Fabian Society research into parliamentary selections is that the barriers to black and Asian candidates have been broken down much faster than anybody has recognised.
That has been overlooked, because debate focuses only on the headline number of black and Asian MPs in Parliament. That only tells us so much – the pattern of political careers means that it reflects selections over the last five or six elections: two-thirds of MPs have been in the House for over ten years.
If we want to know whether candidates of different ethnic backgrounds have fair chances today.
we should look at snapsnots of the ‘class of 1997 or 2001 or 2005’ and new candidates in the seats their parties could hope to win next time. We would know that ethnicity and gender were no longer making it harder to become an MP if, over time, around half of new MPs and candidates were women, and 7.5% (around 1 in 13) were from ethnic minority backgrounds.
We were a long way short of that a decade ago. In 1997, the number of black and Asian MPs rose from six to nine. That sounds good. Bur of the 183 new Labour MPs in the class of 1997, just four (2.2%) were not white, adding to the five Labour MPs in Parliament (while the sole Asian Tory lost their seat). So Labour’s new MPs were no more diverse proportionately than those already in Parliament:
Since 1997, there has been a gradual increase from 9 MPs to 15 – 13 of whom are Labour. That is far from spectacular. But what has changed is that black and Asian candidates are much closer to having fair chances, which should deliver an important acceleration in progress.
There were only 40 MPs in Labour’s class of 2005. But three were non-white. That’s 7.5%. Both new Labour candidates and new Labour MPs were more than three times more likely to be non-white than had been the case in 1997
In the current Parliament, Labour is selecting BME candidates at a rate of 10.5%. (This rises to 15.4% in Labour held seats, 16.7% in marginal seats where Labour is within 10%, and falls to 8.2% in unwinnable seats). So black and Asian candidates have had fair chances in the current round of new selections.
But we need progress to be made across the parties. Otherwise a multi-ethnic Parliament would be vulnerable to the political swingometer.
The Tory benches were all white after 1997 and 2001, though there was one Asian MP among the 336 Tory MPs in 1992. The class of 2001 consisted of 37 white men and one woman.
Pressure to bring about greater diversity began under IDS and Michael Howard and has been stepped up under David Cameron. The Tories elected 2 non-white MPs in the 51 strong class of 2005. They made up 3.9% of the new intake and 1% of the Parliamentary Party as a whole.
Now, in 32 selections replacing retiring Conservative MPs, the party has selected 3 BME candidates (9.4%), 2 of them women, Helen Grant in Maidstone. Kent, and Priti Patel in Witham, Essex. The party has selected 7 further BME candidates in its 175 target seats (4.3%), 3 of them in the top half of the list. Overall, the party is selecting BME candidates in 4.9% of new selections so far.
The strong progress at the top, but less further down the list of candidates, reflects the ‘top down’ way in which the party leadership has tried to accelerate change from a low base. This may not have fully reached the grassroots. There is a risk that the party will see diversity as a ‘one off’ event as part of a rebranding exercise rather than a sustained effort, but the leadership deserves credit for making progress.
The LibDems will not elect any black or Asian MPs at the next election. They have only briefly had one Asian MP, when Parmjit Singh Gill won the 2004 Leicester South by-election before losing it after 10 months at the General Election. He is the only candidate in anything like a competitive seat next time.
The problem is not that the LibDems do not select BME candidates: they do so at a slightly higher rate (5.6%) than the Conservatives. But they seem stuck in an ‘ethnic candidates for ethnic voters’ approach, almost always selecting black and Asian candidates in seats like with high ethnic populations – where the LibDems are a long way behind.
The LibDems have held nine selections for seats they already hold – selecting five women but no non-white candidates. Only by selecting non-white candidate in these winnable seats – which included Winchester, York or St Ives – and not just Birmingham, Bradford and East London would diversify the LibDem benches.
The new evidence is not cause for complacency. Progress must be sustained – and may be slower in local politics.
But complacency is not the only risk. We have had the strange situation of the most vocal advocates for increased BME representaion telling aspiring candidates that they do not and can not have fair chances and a level playing field despite the evidence suggesting that they already do.
As we reach a fair chances tipping point for non-white candidates, we will see more black and Asian MPs in Parliament than ever before: there are likely to be ten or more non-white MPs in the class of 2010.
Whether any of them turns out to be a British Obama will be up to them.
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Sunder Katwala is a regular contributor to Liberal Conspiracy. He is the director of British Future, a think-tank addressing identity and integration, migration and opportunity. He was formerly secretary-general of the Fabian Society.
· Other posts by Sunder Katwala
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Reader comments
Dont worry Liberal Conspiracy when I get elected into the Commons maybe we will see a British Obama or at least an opposition one!
“they seem stuck in an ‘ethnic candidates for ethnic voters’ approach”
This is possibly due to localism – something Lib Dems are firm believers in – and people wanting to stand in their home constituency. We’re not as much for parachuting candidates in from head office as the other two big parties.
In Coventry, we have 16% of our city being “BME” with over 70 languages spoken. Our three Labour MPs are white men (in place for the last 15 years), and our three Tory PPCs are white (two men, one woman). Change isn’t happening here!
Just out of idle curiosity, has anyone researched whether BME MPs are more or less likely than white ones to rebel against the Party line and/or hold front-bench portfolios (I agree the latter should be controlled for “class” i.e. when they entered Parliament)? I offer these as “quality” measures. If there is indeed now a level playing field I would expect the proportion of more or less useless lobby fodder to be the same amongst BME MPs as it is amongst white ones!
As far as situations like Coventry’s are concerned, one answer (which may be forced on the parties anyway by declining membership) would be to have city-wide parties rather than constituency-based ones. The selectorate (so long as we have to have one) could then write a “ticket” that pressed all the various buttons.
Sadly, local government elections show that both white and BME communities prefer to vote for “one of their own”. We’ll have true equality when that no longer happens. But that is asking altogether too much.
Do you think we will ever see a white president of an African country or India in our lifetimes?
Where’s the global equality?
I’ve spent time working, travelling and living in some of the poorer pockets of the world and to be honest, in most of them you are simply lucky to be allowed to live [not be murdered]. I’m all for equality but its got to be global.
By some definitions, Lord Liverpool would have counted as an ethnic minority Prime Minister before the days when ethnic minorities were counted; any such claim of “only in America” with regards to an election of a minority leader is really a “U-571″ing up of history.
Why would a “British Obama” have to be black? I care more about the content of someone’s character than the colour of their skin.
The most important thin g about Obama is he inspires people and brings hope of change for the better. If someone like that came to prominance in Britain, and effected change so that the country was revitalised and no-one held back and everyone was able to progress to the limit of their abilities, it would be a wonderful thing.
“Twenty years after the first four black and Asian MPs were elected,”
That’s incorrect. In the 1890s the first Asian MP was elected: M M Bhownagree for Bethnal Green.
Anyway, people forget that we had a minority PM in the mid-1800s: Benjamin Disraeli, who was Jewish.
I believe Disraeli converted to Christianity.
“The most important thin g about Obama is he inspires people and brings hope of change for the better”
Hmmm……just like Blair did in 97 and just like Cameron attempted in his leadership contest. Let’s hope Obama’s is not empty rhetoric, but he is a lawyer. Oh dear.
Chavscum, the Test Acts were still in force, you had to be an Anglican to be an MP. He was Jewish by descent, and I utterly reject the idea that faith determines ethnicity–he was attacked horribly for his roots on many occasions.
Sunder, I agree with Jennie–I’ve done some digging on this subject within the Lib Dems already–a large proportion of our MPs have longstanding local links to their constituency, the same is true of the candidates, my local PPC has lived in the area for twenty years, my old MP in Torbay had run for the seat several times before finally winning and had previously been a councillor in the area, etc.
If you’re in a party that has to work damn hard to keep its head above water, let alone win the number of seats that reflect its vote share (as opposed to huge numbers more than your votes justify), then you’re going to select a local well known activist of long standing. If most of your MPs come from overwhelming white areas, your base to select BME candidates from in those winnable areas is substantially reduced.
I return to my oft repeated point–abolishing multi-member constituencies in 1947 was the greatest blow against a diverse parliament (in terms of women as well as minority groups) that has been struck. Reversing that measure and bringing back STV for all constituencies would significantly improve the diversity of Parlt without any need for top down measures.
I, and a number of friends, worked damn hard in Ealing Southall to get Nigel Bakhai elected in the ’07 by-election, and the numbers are distinctly in his favour next time as well. If my local (female) PPC hadn’t won the selection, the 2nd placed option was a prominent atheist asian, I’ll be helping his campaign to get elected as an MEP next year and his re-election to the council, and if he gets selected as a candidate elsewhere I’ll travel to help him, I really like the guy (shared religious non-beliefs possibly help there I suspect).
But I also agree with the consensus, we don’t need the British Obama to be black. But I also suspect we’ve already had him, his landslide victory on the back of a massive popular will for change was achieved by Tony Blair over here 11 years ago.
I sincerely hope Obama doesn’t turn out to be the US version of Blair.
You can open a whole can of worms in an ethnic representation debate. I don’t think its fair assumption that a constituency with a large minority ethnic population should have an ethnic MP, which I believe, is a policy most of the parties seek to operate. I guess they believe ethnic minorities are more likely to practise racist voting. That assumption in itself could be labelled racist. They also believe that the white middle-classes in such areas –often young and pretentious – will practise racist voting on the grounds of “liberal” guilt. As ever, it’s the white working-classes that get shafted.
The pace of mass immigration is so fast that whole new ethnic communities have now established themselves. Its wrong to think these new communities should automatically get political representation, particularly when long established communities and the lower class whites have never had any representation. If you think an average age for an MP candidate is 40, and its fair to expect them to have been in the UK since childhood to fully understand and appreciate the UK’s political, social, historical and cultural systems, you are aiming representation at a much smaller ethnic population figure. To base it on current levels is incorrect and open to positive discrimination to favour the unqualified or the corrupt.
On another point, if you take the black population, most “liberal” whites still assume it to be West Indian, when its probably now about 70% 1st & 2nd generation African. Two very different cultures and identities. I believe Africans are more likely to vote Tory. What about the most successful, most integrated and least ghettoised ethnic group in the UK: the Chinese? Why is their representation ignored?
The best example of liberal Britain is the election of Adam Afriyie in Windsor. He’s largely ignored by the left media, as he does not fit their agenda.
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