Gordon Brown: the market’s verdict


3:21 pm - March 28th 2009

by Chris Dillow    


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I’ll not pick apart everything Dan Hannan said in that speech. But there’s one point to question. He said:

Britain is worse off than any other country as we go into these hard times. The IMF has said so. The European Commission has said so. The markets have said so, which is why our currency has devalued by 30%.

But not all markets have said this. The stock market hasn’t.

According to MSCI, the UK’s has been one of the best performing markets in the last 12 months in local currency terms. Among developed countries, only Australia, Canada and Sweden have out-performed the UK, and this only by a couple of percentage points. The UK has out-performed the world index by  almost six percentage points, and the euro zone by almost 11 percentage points.

Stock markets, then, have faith in Gordon Brown.

Well, no. There are countless reasons why the UK has out-performed. For example, it’s benefited from uncovered equity return parity (a weak currency can be good for shares sometimes) and the market has a defensive bias – lots of utilities, brewers and pharmaceuticals firms and few industrials.

Only a fool would read the stock market’s verdict as support for Brown. But why, then, regard sterling’s fall as an indictment of him, when there are other reasons (the closing of carry trades for example) for that too?

Financial markets have much better things to do than pass judgment upon politicians.

Finally, a question: why has no politician articulated what the left believes about the economy as well as Hannan has expressed the right’s views?

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About the author
Chris Dillow is a regular contributor and former City economist, now an economics writer. He is also the author of The End of Politics: New Labour and the Folly of Managerialism. Also at: Stumbling and Mumbling
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Story Filed Under: Blog ,Economy ,Labour party ,Westminster

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Reader comments


I agree with much of the article but I have seen many posts on this site gloating about how the current economic crisis has been brought about by the collapse of capitalism precipitated by greedy bankers etc.

The counter argument is that the crisis was actually caused and exacerbated by government meddling and intervention in the market- from the US encouraging private companies to give home loans to the indigent to our own government bailing out the banks.

As always, the truth lies somewhere between but I am not convinced that the “solutions” for a new world order that Brown would want to emerge from the G20 summit are likely to be helpful.

To anyone.

Pagar:

Capitalism digs it’s own grave. Some of those on the left that blame this on ‘greedy bankers’, overlook that it is systemic problems and not simplistic issues such as lack of morality that are causing this crisis. Capitalism can only secure eternal economic growth, and legitimate political support in infinite spaces. The universe may be infinite, but planet Earth is not. The system’s tendency to over-production will always use up finite resources at an ever expanding rate. I couldn’t care either way whether Climate Change is man-made or natural – either way I’d be shocked if capitalism survives until the middle of 21st century. For those who want regulation, it will make little difference, expect perhaps to bring the collapse of the system to a less catastrophic conclusion.

Always amusing to see a Tory quoting The European Commission to make his case.

The Right never gets irony.

In case you missed it here is the earlier one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDwQEEAZhWM

Perhaps you should mention that to Gordon Brown who considers a weak pound the mark of a weak government ?

Has he ever got anyhting right Chris ?

Steve @2 The universe may be infinite, but planet Earth is not. The system’s tendency to over-production will always use up finite resources at an ever expanding rate.

My memory of economics tells me that the laws of supply and demand worked against over production. You might make a case for conserving the finite resources of the earth but I would be much more confident in capitalism finding something to sell people other than oil than I would be in a command economy rationing it.

It is a fact that, one day in the future, the sun will burn out and the earth will freeze and become lifeless. Very sad, but we would be mad to base our political and economic decisions on how we might prevent it.

Sally – isn’t it more the case that the European Parliament allows people like Brown to be criticised whereas British institutions – as amended in recent decades – mean that he can just ignore ordinary MPs.

8. dreamingspire

There is more heard about non-profit-distributing companies now than I have ever before heard. And about ethical banking, too: Triodos back in the media recently. In public transport, Scotland is musing about possibly finding such a company to take over the Scotrail franchise, and Network Rail is already an NPD company. Good news for public services, when matched with strong and positive regulation (new boss just appointed for the Office of Rail Regulation, I read – hope she – Anna Walker – builds successfully on the good work of Chris Bolt) and customer-facing policy…


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