If Labour is going to come third, it would clearly be preferable (from the point of view of the universe) for the LibDems to come second. But Labour’s public argument about the results will make more sense if UKIP are second and the LibDems fourth.

(If Labour is 4th, then the rumblings may start again)
http://www.nextleft.org/2009/06/expectations-expectations.html

Very interesting (and worrying) results in Northern Ireland, where they won’t count until Monday.
http://www.nextleft.org/2009/06/ulster-earthquake.html
As ever Slugger O’Toole has the inside story on that.
http://www.sluggerotoole.com/

And I’ve lost control of the television (The Apprentice, not the elections). But then I am meant to be on paternity leave.

OMG, he picked Yasmina!

Here’s a prediction based off the NE result being replicated nationwide:

Conservative 4441124 25.35% (22 Seats -2)
Labour 2960749 16.90% (14 Seats -4)
UK Independence Party 2796263 15.96% (11 Seats -1)
Lib. Dem. 2631776 15.02% (11 Seats +1)
Green 2138319 12.20% (8 Seats +6)
BNP 1151402 6.57% (1 Seat +1)
SNP 231505 1.32% (1 Seat -1)
PC 159888 0.91% (1 Seat)

The system fails to take account for SNP strength, so bump them up two and Labour/Greens down one until we get the Scottish results. I’ll update as each regional result comes in here. Also, feel free to follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/josephjedwards

OK, that’s a cock-up. Turns out it’s not actually accepting my new figures and that was just based off of my prediction I made earlier. Oops. Fixing it now.

UKIP top in Hull, Labour 6th in Cornwall, Tories top in Wales. More usefully word is that Labour lose a seat in Yorkshire and humber, presumably to UKIP or Tories.

OK, this is based off the ratio of change in each party’s results, and is again unaltered for Scotland:

Conservative 4654979 27.75% (25 Seats +1)
UK Independence Party 3322929 19.81% (15 Seats +3)
Labour 2676343 15.96% (13 Seats -5)
Lib. Dem. 2387847 14.23% (9 Seats -1)
Green 1232552 7.35% (2 Seats)
BNP 1104748 6.58% (2 Seats +2)
Ian Hudghton, SNP 231505 1.38% (2 Seats)
Jill Evans, PC 159888 0.95% (1 Seat)

I’ll try and keep up to date as regions come in.

Early days for claiming any of that really, especially given it is the North East that declared first.

Quote of the night:

“Policies must not come out of the grey sky of bureaucracy, they must come from the green field, from the people”

- Crazy French woman on BBC speaking in front of ze Eifel Tower.

Nick Lowles is doing a lot of results – particularly looking at BNP – on the Hope Not Hate blog.

He says it will be close and they have a good chance of a seat in Yorkshire; and may be in contention in West Midlands. Early rumours are they are short in north-west which most thought was their best shot: Yorkshire now seems the main threat – lets hope not.
http://www.hopenothate.org.uk/blog/

Also, congratulations on the Swedish Pirate Party getting a seat. It will be good to have a strong voice for not crushing the little man in the interest of media multinationals.

I’m finding the results from the rest of Europe quite interesting. It looks like the right is holding firm and the hard-left is gaining, while the whole Blair/Schroedinger-inspired revisionist centre-left is really taking a beating.

Lee, I know, but there’s no harm in posting some predictions. That said, it is to be taken with a pinch of salt, of course.

Also, on a less statwank level, I’m still seeing the BNP to be likely to take a seat in the NW, and I’ve noticed the threat in Yorkshire and the West Midlands for a while now. Yorkshire would be particularly nasty – look up their lead candidate!

Perhaps BNP success is just the wake-up call that our complacent political class needs. This particularly applies to Labour, but others too.

“Perhaps BNP success is just the wake-up call that our complacent political class needs. This particularly applies to Labour, but others too.”

If by “wake-up call” you mean the centre ground on issues like immigration shifting to the right in efforts to bander to the BNP vote, thus making such attitudes mainstream and acceptable, then I don’t think that’s what our political class – complacent or otherwise – or society more widely needs.

@ 14

No I’m not saying that at all, it’s not about right/left etc. The big problem with the Government’s immigration policy has been it’s stunning incompetence. This has been the hole through which the BNP has sneaked.

Word is that they won’t take it in the NW, but lot of rumours they will in Yorkshire. Labour doing horrendously in the South, UKIP dropping back in the midlands. BNP in contention in the West Midlands. Things are supposedly close between Plaid and Labour in Wales.

If by “wake-up call” you mean the centre ground on issues like immigration shifting to the right in efforts to bander to the BNP vote

Such a drift has been happening for several years, at least since the BNP made gains in 2005. So the lesson from further BNP gains is that effectively endorsing their talking points rather than arguing against them, is a suicidal mistake.

The rise of the BNP is not about right/left?

I’m afraid it is. It need not be in a simplistic way – e.g. people voting BNP because they are committed ideological fascists (almost certainly not true) – but at some level it is about right/left – e.g. people voting for a far right party because they are not aware of or interested in that party’s far right status, because there traditional allegiance to left-of-centre parties has disappeared, as that left-of-centre party has become hollowed out and centre-right, thus leaving behind many of the people who formerly identified with it.

You seem to be suggesting that immigration isn’t a left-right policy – something to which I don’t really know how to reply.

Who has endorsed the BNP’s talking points?

If the BNP win, I’m going to consider leaving the UK. I don’t think I can keep on fighting

All I can say is, the crappy old bullshit about how BNP voters aren’t racist MUST be put to death NOW. We have to fight intolerance and defend immigrants, not the other way around.

@18
No, what I’m saying is that the Government has given the BNP tremendous help by organising immigration so badly. This has been made worse by labelling any and all criticism as “racist”.

Why is Eric Pickles on the TV so much?

He’s go to be the worst pundit around. Worse than Alan Shearer.

His voice makes me skin crawl. It makes me think of treacle and honey – laced with dead flies and wasps.

@23

Fair point re the fact there’s been no proper discourse about immigration.

I sitll think it’s a right/left issue though; I think the left has conspicuously failed to make the case for immigration, in particular. When Boris Johnson is the spokesperson of immigration liberalism, then the left has really failed itself.

@20
Where will you go Rayyan?? Anyway, don’t worry because they’re not going to win.

Who has endorsed the BNP’s talking points?

Each and every one of the government’s draconian attempts to clamp-down on immigration, and even the craven way in which it defends immigration only in terms of economic benefit rather than on the principle of freedom of movement, effectivel endorses the BNP’s platform.

@24
Thanks, but for crying out loud, I didn’t say it wasn’t a right/left issue. What I said was that neither left nor right had taken the issue seriously enough to prevent the BNP making ground.

Who has endorsed the BNP’s talking points?

Everyone on the “left” who has said we need to pander to whites who don’t like immigrants.

@24, absolutely, we haven’t adequately defended immigrants. At the same time, we have to fight fascists. This wouldn’t have happened in the 70s when the left actually fought the BNP and smashed them. We’ve failed. A seat in the North West would be catastrophic. Another in Yorkshire would be the end of any goodwill for immigrants. Fuck this shit, man, London elected a BNP man to the London Assembly last year, now this.

Fuck this shit. It’s the fault of no one but those who vote for the BNP.

What IS this about the BNP ‘winning’? As far as I can see they have only increased their share of the vote by a small percentage despite the attempts of Labour and the Tories to scare us.

@26
The government may have hinted at draconian clamp-downs after various cock-ups have been leaked, but the problem has been their laxity (no idea of numbers, no idea of who’s arrived etc etc).

You can make a case for large-scale immigration, and you can make a case for restrictions. You look stupid if you, a) don’t know what the immigration level is, b) lie about it, and c) label criticism of your incompetence as “racist”.

Labour has fallen behind the Lib Dems in the East of England.

I’m a brown Muslim man. Am I really living in a country where enough people to elect MEPs think I should be killed?

Yorkshire and Humber.

FUCK.

Rayyan, the thing with fascists is to mock them not to fight them (you can’t have smashed them very hard in the 70s if they’re doing better than ever now). This is why they’ve never got very far in Britain. Their succes now is surely down to the very poor standard of debate amongst the main parties.

Yorkshire result in…

Tory – 2
Labour – 1
UKIP – 1
LD – 1
BNP – 1

Fuck.

WhatNext, has mocking them stopped them getting an MEP?

fuck off you liberal racist-excusers.

FUCK. They’ve elected a literal National Socialist, too!

@31:
The “no idea of numbers” thing is utter crap. No government knows how many illegal immigrants it has, and there’s no way any government could unless it shut down all points of entry. The right’s attempt to capitalise on that are sheer hypocrisy unless they plan to end all tourism, stop allowing foreign students at UK universities, enforce a finger-tip search on all freight and cover every pier and beach with barbed-wire and armed patrols.

Britain now has the most draconian immigration system we have ever had. And the thing is, like the Empire in Star Wars, every time the government tightens its grip, the more illegal, unrecorded, unknown immigrants slip through its fingers. The massive rise in illegal immigration in recent years began courtesey of Michael Howard and his massive clamp-down in 1993. The restrictions he introduced led people to turn to criminal gangs to travel to the UK; these gangs, like all businesses, in turn started creating their own markets, promoting illegal migration to the UK to people who otherwise wouldn’t have entertained the idea, and developed illegal employment networks (especially in the sex trade) out of that. If we really want to stem the increase in immigration, and above all end illegal immigration and the associated criminal activities, the only way to do it is to liberalise our immigration laws, to make it easier to come here legally and openly.

For the record I blame the Left wholeheartedly for the BNP’s win here. Why is it that they can’t pick the middle ground of ignoring the BNP and focusing on their own positive aspects, rather than either trying to censor them or big them up on the national news as a real and possible threat?

Talk about voting for Christmas…

Why is it that they can’t pick the middle ground of ignoring the BNP We ignored them in Yorks and the Humber.

Lee Griffin,

Given that the left-wing media consists in The Guardian, the New Statesman and The Independent, I hardly think the left is responsible for the hyping of the BNP threat – and then it’s another question as to whether the hype caused the BNP boon.

Me, I think the 3 weeks of Telegraph revelations certainly helped shift votes to the far right. Torygraph is not exactly the left.

And Hope not Hate was predominently a left-wing campaign, and they were the frontline in anti-bnp campaigning.

This goes deeper than blaming just “the left” or “the right”.

@31

Come on Gregg, the government’s has been particularly sloppy and dis-organised on this issue. And what’s this about the Empire in Star Wars?

@38

Ah …. that’s what I’m talking about Rayyan. Anyone who thinks differently on this subject must be racist. Thanks for that. Anyway, they haven’t been mocked have they?

Why the hell did the other parties stay on the stage while Brons spoke?

Ah well, not going to Yorkshire and Humber anytime soon then!

Wow, we’ve got a former National Front chairman representing Yorks and Humber.

What a low point for British democracy.

WhatNext, people who vote for the BNP know they are a racist party. UKIP I can understand and excuse. BNP I can not. Yes, we have to engage with these people to change their minds. But racism is racism.

The Telegraph revelations created a desire to punish the main parties; the hysteria over the BNP told people how to vote if they wanted to really piss Labour off.

And despite this Hope Not Hate’s site is indicating BNP support has FALLEN in several areas.

“And Hope not Hate was predominently a left-wing campaign, and they were the frontline in anti-bnp campaigning.”

And yet this is also part of the problem, as I said. Between the BBC, and those papers you mention, constantly going on about how credible the BNP threat is, and those like Hope not Hate running the quintessential negative campaign, I personally can’t believe there isn’t an element of self fulfilling prophecy here.

WhatNext?! – I’ve worked in immigration enforcement, and the government hasn’t been sloppy; it has been excessively hard-line. It has panicked and pandered both to the far-right and (to a much greater extent) to tabloid hysteria. It has abandoned every principle Labour has ever held on immigration, most shamelessly our moral duty to refugees.

This is a fucking disaster, I am so ashamed.

Why has this happened? Because people keep fucking blaming immigrants, because idiots like Ian Dale can say things like “Britain has no immigration control” and get away with it. Britain does, draconian controls too.

We send refugees to the Congo to be murdered, and its not good enough for some people. We are not fighting hard enough and I am sick of it.

How the hell can we recover from this?

I bet BNP support has fallen where their profile has previously been bigger.

Another reason not to fear their success too much: the BNP is made up of charmless and gormless oafs and their voters will discover this once they see more of them.

Don’t despair, so long as the main parties do their job properly in future the BNP will soon get their comeuppance.

I have a feeling that Griffin was also be elected.

Lee Griffin,

I campaigned for Hope Not Hate on 3 occasions, and it wasn’t all negative at all.

In Dagenham for example they ran a good, solid campaign on local issues and not just shouting “BNP are racist”.

But I do accept that there were/are problems in the way HNH operate.

Hanging on we’re perpetuating the mistake here by banging on about the BNP.

The big story is the huge kicking that Labour is getting. Will Brown go tomorrow?

Oh great, Nick Griffin has just been given a national platform to say that white people suffer from racism, and he’s sticking up for them.

BNP elected in Yorkshire? I’m sure we can find all sorts of reasons for this, but those people who voted for them ought to be ashamed. Idiots.

Sunny, how do you feel about Griffin just claiming that Sikhs vote BNP?

I think people might be mis-reading the reason the BNP has won the seat in Yorks and Humber. It looks like it actually got slightly fewer votes there than in 2004. But Labour got about half as many, and the Tories have dropped too.

This is how most of the BNP’s victories are delivered – not because voters from other parties switch to the BNP, but because they abstain. And this is what drives both the media and party response, and the strategy of campaigns like Hope Not Hate. I just think the disgust and apathy inspired by the expenses scandal was too much to overcome this time.

According to the BBC Website, the Green Party nationall has polled 7.7% versus the BNP’s 7.5%

Sunny I fear you are right.

Part of the problem was that there were far too many pointless little fucking shit parties, even on the left – Socialist Labour Party, No2Eu, Animals Count, lots of stupid fucking quacks. If Hope Not Hate actually had a positive message (vote FOR someone) and had managed to get all the smaller parties to stand down and support one anti-BNP party (either the Greens, the Liberals or an alliance, this might not have happened.

The absence of people willing to stick up for immigrants in the mainstream parties, and those who say BNP voters aren’t racist, is the main problem

Sunny, how do you feel about Griffin just claiming that Sikhs vote BNP?

I don’t take anything Nick Griffin says seriously.

Why can’t Labour politicians say LOUD and CLEAR why immigration is not bad and why racism is wrong?

Why have I never heard anyone stick up for immigrants on the TV?

Is it just me or did Nick Griffin get given an incredibly easy ride?

Why isn’t his bullshit challenged at every corner? I hope you’re right sunny and we don’t have to take him seriously.

Their vote isn’t bigger, people aren’t more racist, but they have got Nazis into the European Parliament.

Here’s the extrapolated results so far:
Conservatives: 28.2%, 26 seats
UK Independence: 18.5%, 14 seats
Labour: 14.6%, 12 seats
Liberal Democrat: 14.1%, 9 seats
British National: 8.5%, 3 seats
Green: 7.2%, 2 seats
Nationalists*: 2.3%, 3 seats

*: Nationalists are likely to take one more seat than this, likely at the Tories’s expense.

Interesting fact: the BNP would gain five seats on this prediction if not for the seat cut.

@ Rayyan,

because for 12 years Labour has played the hooker to the tabloids’ pimp, figuring power was worth having even if without any purpose whatsoever.

I dispute that the BNP getting a small increase in share of the vote – and a declining share of the vote in places like Burnley where they are actually known – is the big story of this election.

The big story is the utter collapse of the Labour vote, down to a much smaller hardcore than has ever been exposed before. And that vote has gone many ways, not solely to the BNP, nor solely to the Tories.

The news that 10% of the population of Yorkshire is racist is not news to anybody who has ever been to Yorkshire.

Slight mistake there, it should be:
Conservative 4453332 28.12% (25 Seats +1)
UK Independence Party 2926557 18.48% (15 Seats +2)
Labour 2311826 14.59% (12 Seats -4)
Lib. Dem. 2220639 14.02% (9 Seats -1)
Green 1505149 9.50% (3 Seats +1)
BNP 1020731 6.44% (2 Seats +1)
Ian Hudghton, SNP 231505 1.46% (2 Seats)
Plaid Cymru 126702 0.80% (1 Seat)

There’s only a 1k difference under that prediction between the BNP and the Greens – scary echoes of what’s happening in the NW specifically.

(again, SNP’s unadjusted; they’d likely knock out the Greens).

The BBC has just forecast that the governing party and the official opposition will get a popular vote of 16% & 27% respectively – a sum of 43%.

These are the two parties that won’t give us proportional representation and won’t relinquish their duopoly over the House of Commons.

Given that the BNP think they are proud of British history, why are they so f-ing ignorant of it?
http://www.nextleft.org/2009/06/if-bnp-knew-our-history.html

Joseph – you’re projecting a lower national average for Labour than the BBC. Any reason why?

Nick Griffin now VIRTUALLY CERTAIN to win seat.

“Is it just me or did Nick Griffin get given an incredibly easy ride? ”

It’s you, he was repeatedly called a racist on national TV, with applicable reasons as to why he is.

Sunny: It’s likely because of the methods. My method is necessarily a little simpler than their likely one – it’s simply based on the ratio of votes in 2004 in declared regions compared to votes now and ignores the other regions, simply extrapolating.

It’s their heartlands that have declared so far (they were ahead in 2009 in total in votes but not seats), and I imagine that the drop there will of course be more dramatic (there’s simply more ‘weak’ voters to lose).

To put it more simply, say there were two regions – one drops from 30% to 15%, and another from 15% to 10%. The former will acting alone give a ratio of 50%, the latter 66.6%. Thus, if national vote last time was 30%, the first would give a prediction of 15%, the second one of 20%.

72. It’s sickening that a body set up by countries to stop any threat of the racist, national supremacist, politics that exist from causing problems is now housing someone just like that. And you’re right, history and a lack of respect and knowledge for it clearly plays its part.

Indeed a complete lack of knowledge about the EU and what it does has only aided those like the BNP and UKIP, and that certainly falls on Labour, Lib Dem and Labour shoulders. I hope they’ve learned their lesson because it’s the hardest way for them to do it.

BTW you’re claiming that the BNP have got a seat in Wales, may want to edit that

@50,

I have to agree. In Manchester (where I live) the Green leaflet stressed keeping out the BNP as a reason to vote Green. I am sure that was done with the best of intentions – though it doesn’t seem to have worked – but I really think that sort of thing helped to build up the BNP this time.

To be fair, though, at least the Green leaflet got here – most of the others arrived on polling day!

“It’s you, he was repeatedly called a racist on national TV, with applicable reasons as to why he is.”

You’re right, I’m just upset.

Greens overtake UKIP in London – some good news at last.

Anyone else notice McShane playing the ‘PR lets in the fascists’ card on the Beeb.

Verily the man is a complete cunt.

unity@81

more wit and wisdom from denis macshane – suggests purnell is suspiciously french
http://www.nextleft.org/2009/06/purnell-is-suspiciously-french-says.html

Yeah, I had to shout at the TV over McShane’s nonsense. In one statement he managed to both declare that he thought the electoral system was the problem (and therefore less about the politicians failing to win the argument) and also that he prefers people’s views are not reflected in governance. Go go Labour democratic reform!

Conservative 4391587 27.89% (25 Seats +1)
UK Independence Party 2669326 16.95% (13 Seats)
Labour 2513163 15.96% (12 Seats -4)
Lib. Dem. 2219566 14.09% (10 Seats)
BNP 988219 6.27% (3 Seats +2)
Ian Hudghton, SNP 358929 2.27% (3 Seats +1)
Green 1410120 8.95% (2 Seats)
Plaid Cymru 126702 0.80% (1 Seat)
Yeah, that result single-handedly bumped Labour back up, although whether they’ll hold there remains to be seen. Third BNP seat is in West Midlands.

MacShane is a total fucking cunt.

@81 Yes indeed. The sight of the man made me want to smash up my TV set.

78. BruceK,

Yeah, I think perhaps what has happened a lot is that some have taken for granted that BNP wouldn’t normally get in, and have almost tried to use them as a trendy political bullet point. “Don’t vote for the nasty BNP, vote for us instead, we already have an MEP!”

There was only *one* good leaflet I saw, I think it was Unite or UAF, and that listed at least the types of people that a vote for BNP would be voting for, in all their “Nazi Germany had it right”, “rape is just sex” glory. But even that was an exercise in basically endorsing the BNP as a legitimate threat.

The job is now tougher, now they are a legitimate threat, albeit with extremely little power. The question is now how to root them out before they get their tendrils in deep…incumbency can be self-fulfilling.

Apparently looks like tory 2/ lab 2/ UKIP 2 in the West Midlands, Liberals lose a seat but no BNP.

Oh, and on the greens in the North West, I rubbished them. I was badly, badly wrong. A few thousand more green votes would have stopped the BNP win thats apparently in the pipe.

Haha UKIP lost East Midlands MEP.

Good.

Twats.

“Verily the man is a complete cunt”

amen

Conservative 4414040 28.52% (26 Seats +2)
Labour 2534017 16.37% (12 Seats -4)
UK Independence Party 2369681 15.31% (12 Seats)
Lib. Dem. 2163041 13.97% (10 Seats -1)
BNP 984382 6.36% (3 Seats +2)
Ian Hudghton, SNP 358929 2.31% (3 Seats +1)
Green 1369562 8.85% (2 Seats)
Plaid Cymru 126702 0.81% (1 Seat)

This may have been the ‘missing link’ here. Not that many people thought that UKIP would actually plunge without Kilroy.

Oh, and on the greens in the North West, I rubbished them. I was badly, badly wrong. A few thousand more green votes would have stopped the BNP win thats apparently in the pipe.

We did try telling you and other Lib Dems and the Labourites.

To be fair, it could have been so easily different. If the Greens were nearer their polling numbers, and the BNP on about 7%, then it would have been the Tories who would need votes to keep them out.

Argh, MacFuck again.

Your table seems to give the BNP a seat in Wales – thankfully, they didn’t manage to win one and are (at this time) standing at only one seat.

“Plus: I know BNP winning a seat is bad, but why is it the main story on the BBC News site! Why give fascists credibility?”

Because the BBC, the Lib Dems, Unite, Hope not Hate, Labour, Tories, Greens and god knows who else have ALL made the BNP getting a seat the main issue about Europe.

“I know BNP winning a seat is bad, but why is it the main story on the BBC News site!”

Hear, hear.

“Because the BBC, the Lib Dems, Unite, Hope not Hate, Labour, Tories, Greens and god knows who else have ALL made the BNP getting a seat the main issue about Europe.”

Sadly, too true

Am I confused or is that 3 seats for the BNP?! From nothing. The communication funds they will have access to will dwarf a lot of their previous campaign operations. We can only hope that they manage to blow themselves given enough oxygen.

“Your table seems to give the BNP a seat in Wales – thankfully, they didn’t manage to win one and are (at this time) standing at only one seat.”

Oh right. That is still bad but not much worse than expected.

“Am I confused or is that 3 seats for the BNP?! ”
Potentially, yes.

If you think about it for a sec, the big news of this election is that it’s looking like a Tory landslide of unbelievable proportions in England come the General Election, followed smartly by a cliffhanger vote on the exit of Scotland from the United Kingdom.

Yeah, I was wrong, but to be fair the greens didn’t appear to be catching much attention and were polling poorly so there wasn’t much to go on.

Also, the BBC have a gain down for the Lib Dems but I can’t for the life of me see a seat thats changed hands. I think its down because of the lost UKIP seat from less seats overall, but thats surely a nonsense?

Greens knocked Labour into fifth place in South West!

Lib Dem gained from UKIP in east midlands

hahaha “Fascists, fucking fascists!”

haha, I loved it when I heard that…

now updating South East and south west..

“Plus: I know BNP winning a seat is bad, but why is it the main story on the BBC News site! Why give fascists credibility?”

BBC in doing the same thing they’ve been doing for the past five years shocker.

And Greens knock Labour into fifth in S East, too.

Lib Dems did not gain from UKIP, thats a sitting MEP. UKIP lost a seat as there were less seats in the East Midlands this time. Stupid BBC.

Oh god why are they giving Hannan coverage? The Terminator reference was lame.

“If you think about it for a sec, the big news of this election is that it’s looking like a Tory landslide of unbelievable proportions in England come the General Election, followed smartly by a cliffhanger vote on the exit of Scotland from the United Kingdom.”

I say we go for it. It worked out pretty good for Slovakia after all.

Hannan is an even bigger cunt than MacShane plus Gordon Brown.

Hannan makes give copy, if its good enough for youtube its good enough for the BBC… Oh god, Dr Suez?????????

Tinter: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/elections/euro/09/html/ukregion_31.stm

Farage, a twat, but at least he insulted Hannan.

“Farage, a twat, but at least he insulted Hannan.”

Your enemy’s enemy is your friend, except when they are both Tory bastards

Farage reckons UKIP’s natural constituency is too stupid to find it on the ballot paper.

But yeah, it seems you’re right tinter, I guess they’re claiming that the Lib Dem’s lost their seat due to the seat changes, but then UKIP lost one of theirs higher up to the Lib Dems

Farage: “We have had hundreds of voters calling us up saying they couldn’t find us on the ballot paper.”

That says all that needs to be said about the kind of people who vote UKIP.

I know Lee. They are wrong, which is why I am annoyed. Just look uk the 2004 results. I think they must have it as a gain because the Lib Dems moved from the last seat that was being removed to overtake UKIP. But thats just stupid IMO.

It’s technically true, but it’s not really so much a gain for Lib Dems, as you say

Conservative 4361028 27.89% (25 Seats)
UK Independence Party 2442635 15.62% (12 Seats)
Labour 2414273 15.44% (12 Seats -3)
Lib. Dem. 2200030 14.07% (11 Seats)
BNP 996996 6.37% (3 Seats +2)
Ian Hudghton, SNP 370697 2.37% (3 Seats +1)
Green 1400892 8.95% (2 Seats)
Plaid Cymru 126702 0.81% (1 Seat)
Labour are back below UKIP, and what’s left could be brutal for the party.

Polly (I’m loaded) Toynbee “…people love ex-leaders…”

Ha ha ha! When his time comes, they’ll have to bury Brown next to Thatcher – a public grave would be desecrated before he was cold.

@112 I say the Scots should go for it too.

It will be a fine silver lining on the massive dark cloud of a generation of Tory hegemony.
Hopefully Slovakia not the model!

But could Scotland cope with the post-independence influx of Englanders?

UKIP lost a lot of votes because their supporters couldn’t find them on the ballot paper but even more votes where their supporters ate their crayons. They’ve been decimated in one area where they stood outside the voting booth to staring at something shiny.

Oh dear Christ, Hannan and Farage at the same time?

McDonnell: “…PM’s on probation…” -

Still they cannot realise; people HATE Brown. It’s time to turn off the life support.

Yep, its the Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber show…

I swear, a layer of slime is forming on my TV.

Hey, was that Farage talking favourably about PR?

Lol Hannan basically admitted he would be in UKIP were it not for the fact they were small.

What a complete fuckwit. Both of them

@Unity, of course, he’d get MPs under PR.

Hannan had two goes at saying “Dr. Seuss” and got both of them wrong. Hope that makes youtube.

Since nobody has posted it yet Griffin has won, BNP get last seat in NW.

They’ve not talked abt the BNP for a while on the BBC. New policy of just not talking about them?

I spoke too soon. Griffin is in.

Lee are you updating the main post?? I need to copy and paste in the results so far…

Nick Griffin is in MEP!

No BNP in W Midlands.

I’m not updating the main post Sunny, no. WordPress isn’t very good for recognising when you’ve stopped doing anything :/

The North West has not yet declared.
Am I old fashioned, or do others think it would be better that we find out the result when the returning officer reads it out?

UKIP’s ironically what put the seat out of possibility:

PR (d’Hont system) calculations were:
Conservative 396847 (Seat 1)
UK Independence Party 300471 (Seat 2)
Labour 240201 (Seat 3)
Conservative 198424 (Seat 4)
Lib. Dem. 170246 (Seat 5)
UK Independence Party 150236 (Seat 6)
Conservative 132282
BNP 121967

Anyway, nothing really to predict now. The NW will be one of the following:
* Con 3, Lab 2, LD 1, UKIP 1, BNP 1
* Con 2, Lab 2, LD 1, UKIP 1, BNP 1, Green 1

Scotland will probably be one apiece for the four big parties, a second seat for the SNP, and the sixth seat up for grabs between the SNP, the Tories and the Greens.

Griffin!? Wholly feck!

I can’t wait for his speech! LOL

Heh, one clap for BNP.

Mardell: “…head scratching & heartache from the socialists…”

Moron.

Let’s not forget, it is Gordon “…light touch regulation…” Brown that brought us here.

He has been the master of his own downfall.

Go. And go now, you despicable excuse for a PM.

8,000 green votes off keeping the BNP out…

“Anyway, nothing really to predict now. The NW will be one of the following:
* Con 3, Lab 2, LD 1, UKIP 1, BNP 1
* Con 2, Lab 2, LD 1, UKIP 1, BNP 1, Green 1″

Or not.

And again, the BNP gained the seat despite their vote going down.

The result in England and Wales:

Conservative 4012600 28.61% (24 Seats)
UK Independence Party 2440438 17.40% (14 Seats +2)
Labour 2151907 15.34% (11 Seats -7)
Lib. Dem. 1953575 13.93% (10 Seats)
Green 1223303 8.72% (2 Seats)
BNP 916424 6.53% (2 Seats +2)
Plaid Cymru 126702 0.90% (1 Seat)

Yep, down to third. Labour are very likely to finish behind UKIP even after Scotland declares.

““Anyway, nothing really to predict now. The NW will be one of the following:
* Con 3, Lab 2, LD 1, UKIP 1, BNP 1
* Con 2, Lab 2, LD 1, UKIP 1, BNP 1, Green 1?

Or not.
”
Or so. I’m too tired. Night.

Griffin confirmed.

Disgraceful.

The British people should take a long hard look at themselves. Our Grandparents died to keep these scum out.

Nick Robinson: ‘the BNP vote went down. Griffin got elected as a result of the failure of the other parties.”

8,000 green votes off keeping the BNP out…

or 4,000 more UKIP.

Daniel, don’t worry their vote went down. They can’t last, the British people aren’t scum, they’ll toss these fascists out next chance they’ll get.

ok thanks, the original post has now been updated…

http://www.breakingtweets.com/2009/06/07/bnp-seat-causes-stir-on-twitter/

BBC have actually played this beautifully, by giving the previous BNP candidate some air time they really have no need to give Griffin any time on screen. At least I’m hoping that’s why it’s worked out why it has.

“the British people aren’t scum”

Only some. The challenge now is to make sure that some of those with legitimate concerns about local issues don’t bunch in with the scum now that BNP have legitimacy.

@Lee, I hope that’s the case. It’s possible they’ll go back to him, as he is probably waiting for his turn to speak after the other candidates.

You’d think the Nick Griffin was PM to look at the coverage the BNP are getting.

What legitimate concerns are those, Lee? Anything that excuses racism?

No Griffin speech, thank fuck.

@155 – I take heart that the British People will come to their senses.

It is to our eternal shame that we have democratically sent fascists to the EU chamber.

This day should remain etched in the hearts of right-minded people. This is all because they stopped listening to us – they think they are better – and look where this has got us!

I hang my head in deep shame that the British People are reduced to this.

And FFS, News 24 runs with Lebanon as the lead story.

I take it back, they’re playing him on News24 now.

The BNP can convince some people that their not racists, enough to think that stories like the one discussed make good journalism.

They are running Griffin. Thankfully, he’s revealing himself as a paranoid lunatic.

FFS, the cunt on News24 has just claimed the BNP attracted disaffected Labour voters.

Looks like the bbc are going to continue supporting fascists both domestic and foreign.

I hope all those piss weak establishment liberals who have spent the past few years defending boaden, frei, webb et al are pleased with themselves.

Well, what a terrible night.
What was left of the Labour vote in 2004 collapsed, but it disappeared into many “others”, things like the Christian Party, English Democrat Party, as much as BNP it would seem.
The Greens didn’t pick up all that much, I guess because the middle classes had already departed in 2004.

This will deliver the Tories, what, a 300 seat majority at the General Election? Psephologists please advise.

If you think tonight feels bad, just wait for the General Election.

Strategist: First, this result isn’t a GE result, so there’s little point extrapolating out that way.

Second, The Tories will need a monumental swing of support, while also not losing out anything to the Lib Dems to get anything near above what Labour have as a majority.

The Greens did well, they just didn’t get seats out of it, a bit unfortunate really.

Well, can’t really predict GE’s from it but the labour collapse is stunning and certainly suggests bad things. I think a tory majority is very clear, and on Liberal performances in the SW in locals and today the only worry the tories have is how many they will gain from them.

I’m not extrapolating this share of the vote to a GE result, I’m extrapolating the basic trend, which will almost certainly apply to the GE, of the Labour vote evaporating.

Without UKIP as a major force, I imagine that a monumental swing to the Tories will occur and they will scoop up presently Labour seats in droves.

Even if a straight Lab to Tory swing in the Lab-Tory marginals doesn’t occur, the Tories will clean up in vast swathes of England if the Labour vote stays at home. FPTP simply requires you to come at the head of the field. Look at the Council elections. The map of the shires is solid blue.

@170 You are right. Labour are spent as a national political force – and not before time. The reasons are endless:

1 Iraq – Lies, lies and more lies

2 Pensions – mine is worth less this year than last – thanks Gordon!

3 Civil Liberties – 42 days, Busy-bodies on every corner, Walter Wolfgang, Bonkers ECHR legislation – we can’t even expel the cunts that hate us – in fact, we fund them and their bigamous marriages.

4 I’m an atheist – but we are almost persecuting the religious. Leave them alone Their consciences – however much we disagree, need to be respected.

5 The Poor – where are the media campaigns to target the boss class filth that have stolen money from poor people in this country. Benefits – bad, bailout – GOOD!

6 The EU – remember when we were going to engage? Yeah, me too. Didn’t happen.

7 Expenses – only shitting their pants because they got found found out – after repeated attempts to keep it all secret…

I could go on… but I’m sure you get the gist…

Shock news – the costs and benefits of immigration are unevenly distributed.
Labelling all those who voted BNP as racist probably isn’t the best way to win them back, even if it burnishes your halo.

Labour’s collapse really is a thing of beauty isn’t it.
Voters didn’t punish the “three main parties” did they?
They punished Labour alone.

Of course ironically this is so bad that it has saved Gordon.
Another 11 months of joy ahead then!

Labelling all those who voted BNP as racist probably isn’t the best way to win them back…

Speaking as someone who has no attachment to any political party, can I say that I agree with the above statement – calling BNP voters racist probably won’t win them back.

Nor will calling them pig-ignorant boneheads or small-minded cretins; nor glowering, self-pitying morons or slack-jawed, bigoted idiots. Or thick twats. OTOH, doing so would at least have the virtue of accuracy, thus avoiding the usual charge of “political correctness” levelled at those who tend to use more polite language.

In all honesty, who believes that anyone loopy enough to vote for the bag-of-shit-through-the-Pakistani-shopkeeper’s-letterbox Party can be “won back”? The only way that could happen is surely in the same sense that Terry Schiavo’s parents could’ve “won her back” had their court case succeeded, I suspect.

I guess the silver lining is the boost they provide to your already very well developed sense of superiority.

Perhaps the Hope Not Hate campaign could use your help…

I guess the silver lining is the boost they provide to your already very well developed sense of superiority.

Oooh, you almost got me with those nasty little claws there, missy. Swish!

So cjcjc immigrants provoke a reaction just by being immigrants?

I didn’t know people could have allergic reactions to immigrants that cause their brains to melt. Worst than peanuts, that’s for sure.

“The only way that could happen is surely in the same sense that Terry Schiavo’s parents could’ve “won her back” had their court case succeeded, I suspect.”

Correct.

Where did I suggest that?

But immigration has costs and benefits which are not evenly distributed.
It is (in general) the poor who bear those costs and the rich who benefit.

Denouncing those who are affected as “racist” may (obviously does) make you feel better but does nothing to solve the problem about which you claim to be so concerned.

For shame, Cjcjc! Are we now to describe voters for nakedly racist parties as “people affected by immigration” rather than the more succinct and inifinitely more accurate “racists”?

You rightists and your ridiculous speech codes and politically correct phraseology – why, next you’ll be telling me that we’ll all have to call the next BNP member caught in posession of nailbombs and guns a “victim”, rather than a terrorist! As if the BNP voter is driven to his extreme beliefs by the mere existence of foreigners, and is not responsible for his own despicable responses!

This is nothing more than an attempt to conceal what BNP voters are – racists, plain and simple – behind a thin veneer of PC mumbo-jumbo, and I for one am not having it. You trendy Daily Mailies with your stodgy, lardy food and your expensive real ales might think you can pull the wool over the eyes of the ordinary, hard-working Briton with your fancy talk, but by God you’ll get such a thrashing if you try that stuff up Islington way!

Write them off then…so much easier than to address any of their concerns, isn’t it?

And that feeling of superiority…there’s just nothing like it, is there?

This is nothing more than an attempt to conceal what BNP voters are…

Well, one thing they are – or at least were – is Labour voters.

0155 Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University says: The Labour Party were clearly the principal losers where the BNP’s vote went up most. In areas where the BNP vote went up by more than three points their vote was down by eight points, whereas where the BNP’s vote fell Labour’s vote fell by only five points. This three-point difference is much bigger than the equivalent statistics for the Conservatives and Lib Dems. In contrast, above-average UKIP increases in their share of the vote seemed to have hurt all of the Westminster parties. Thus, it seems possible that UKIP may have picked up some of the anti-Labour protest vote as well as pinching votes from the Conservatives.

In other words, a large, perhaps the largest, element in the rise of the BNP is the death of the Labour Party. Their sheer unpopularity has deprived a large section of the electorate of a party to vote for. They won’t vote Tory, the Lib Dems are too middle class – who else is there? In Scotland, of course, there’s the SNP – how did they do? In Wales there’s Plaid. The BNP vote is almost exclusively an anti-Labour protest.

This should be at least partially slef-correcting. Once back in opposition, Labour will be able to articulate the grievances of the poor far more stridently in the knowledge they don’t have to do anything about it. That, coupled with the Tories inevitable loss in popularity, ought to see these ghastly, god-awful racists safely back under the Labour banner. Problem solved.

It’s happened before, of course. People usually attribute the collapse of the NF to the fact that Thatcher pandered to them. Looking at where their support base was, it’s more likely that the (racist, stupid etc) anti-Government vote of the NF cheerfully returned to Labour, after leaving it during the 1970s.

Write them off then…so much easier than to address any of their concerns, isn’t it?

Well, it is, isn’t it? My attitude is pretty much “Fuck Them, Because Fuck Them”.

Pretty much the only lesson we can draw about the opinions of BNP voters are that a) Oooh, they don’t like foreigners much, do they? and b) They’re not afraid to cast their votes for a party filled with stupid, violent, racist thugs whose ranks have included people who spent their youth baseball-batting minorities and reading far too many books about Hitler, and whose members have a worrying tendency to hoard fertiliser and talk enthusiastically about “Race War”.

These are not traits any political party is about to emulate, nor should they, so I suggest that BNP voters should continue to vote for the BNP in all elections. Then, when their bins aren’t being emptied and their houses don’t have electricity because running a local council is actually quite difficult compared to ganging together and battering a Pakistani teenager, the rest of us can decide whether or not to help them out of the hole they’ve dug themselves into.

I’m a strong believer in democracy, you know – BNP voters clearly know what they want and I, for one, hope they get it good and hard.

And that feeling of superiority…there’s just nothing like it, is there?

I wouldn’t know son – I’m too busy tucking into some Pinot Grigot and foix gras on the gilded balcony of my ivory tower while the serving boys perfume my fine leather shoes to consider such matters. Frankly, condescending to speak to a rough-handed, coal mining son of toil like yourself is a terrible indignity to my person, you utter berk.

But Flying Rodent doesn’t want them back…

“Fuck Them, Because Fuck Them”

see what i mean?

“These are not traits any political party is about to emulate, nor should they, so I suggest that BNP voters should continue to vote for the BNP in all elections. Then, when their bins aren’t being emptied and their houses don’t have electricity because running a local council is actually quite difficult compared to ganging together and battering a Pakistani teenager, the rest of us can decide whether or not to help them out of the hole they’ve dug themselves into. ”

Racists can achieve these things – aphartheid South Africa was very well run.

It’s far too simplistic to dimiss every single BNP voter as being a “racist”. The true picture’s more complex: with the expense scandal continuing to provoke outrage, we should accept that some people cast their vote for the BNP because they are non-racist morons, and others because they are non-racist cunts.

>>> Racists can achieve these things – aphartheid South Africa was very well run.

Yep, and the trains ran on time in Nazi Germany as well…

Some people never fucking learn…

Racists can achieve these things – aphartheid South Africa was very well run.

No it wasn’t, it was economically stagnant. Because – spook – the deliberate restriction of all important jobs in a country to a small minority of that country is a dramatically bad idea. It was just made to look better because it was surrounded by failed states. The fact that it was actively destabilising these states may not be unrelated.

I think we probably need to get used to the BNP having elected representatives. As Tim J pointed out, Thatcher was able to win voters back from the far-right in a way Cameron seems unlikely to. That constituency is going to stick with the BNP for the forseeable future, and it serve no purpose if we get hysterical whenever they pick up a seat.