Tories remain confused on tax credits


by Chris Dillow    
1:41 pm - August 2nd 2009

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The Tory right is, yet again, showing its ignorance of the income distribution and tax system. The Speccie’s leader says:

Mr Cameron has been criticised for telling Mr Marr that he would remove tax credits for households which earn more than £50,000 a year. This…would hit 130,000 families immediately and unsettle many more. It is a proposal that would undoubtedly hurt Middle Britain. Considered in isolation, this would indeed be an objectionable and vindictive proposal.

The first flaw here is an albeit mild version of the middle England/Britain error – the notion that the well-off are just ordinary folk. In truth, a two parent household with two children and earnings of £50,000 a year is better off than almost two-thirds of the population.

It has disposable income, before tax credits, of over £650 a week, whereas median incomes are £601 a week for two-children households (table 2.3 pf this pdf).

The second flaw is that the sums involved are small. Such a household gets £10.50 a week in child tax credits – the working tax credit is exhausted after weekly earnings hit £340 (table 1.6d of this big pdf). But this is only around 1.6% of after-tax income. The loss of such a sum might sting a little – but it is surely over-sensitive to call such a move “vindictive.”

This is not to say it’s wrong to oppose Cameron’s proposal. There is a reasonable objection to it – namely, that stopping families on £50,000 getting tax credits requires a rise in effective marginal tax rates.

If you imposed an abrupt cut-off at £50,000, you would impose a marginal tax rate of over 100%  at around that income level. If you withdrew tax credits more smoothly, you’d impose even higher withdrawal rates upon families earning less than £50k – and these already face deduction rates of over 75% if they earn less than £720 a week.

To fulfil his promise, then, Cameron must either hurt people on incomes less than £50,000 – which acquits the Speccie of my charge of committing the middle England error – or impose even greater disincentives to work, or even further complicate the tax credit system, or some mix of all three.

However, the Speccie ignores this difficulty in favour of blather. Which is, I fear, yet more evidence that that the Tory right is entirely ignorant of issues of income distribution and the tax credit system.

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About the author
Chris Dillow is a regular contributor and former City economist, now an economics writer. He is also the author of The End of Politics: New Labour and the Folly of Managerialism. Also at: Stumbling and Mumbling
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Reader comments


1. A different John

Chris Dillow attacks David Cameron for saying that families with incomes (net of pension premiums, Gift Aid contributions, income from PEPs and ISAs, and various other items that I do not bother to remember) of more than £50,000 do not need Child Tax Credits. I should have thought that was patently obvious.
What is the point of simultaneously charging people higher rate tax and paying them tax credits apart from creating jobs for civil servants in HMRC?
If you want to worry about marginal tax rates don’t look at those on £50k, look at the family that is struggling on £20k, with the wife at home looking after small children and the husband commuting – his effective marginal tax rate is 71% and he gets no tax relief on his train fare (I am self-employed so I do get tax relief on my train fare so despite an effective tax rate of 81% – my elder son is at university – I am better off than the typical wage-slave).
Income tax is supposed to be based on ability to pay so either raise the threshold to 80% of median income and charge 50% (including NI) on income more than 150% of the median, abolishing higher rate tax relief on pension contributions, or follow Alaska (the idea predates Palin so don’t panic) and give everyone a basic income out of North Sea Oil taxes and then tax them on the excess.
The Tax Credit system is a Abomination – I suspect that the number of errors is nearer 90% than the published 30+% because the Inland Revenue staff themselves do not understand it and it took FOUR YEARS for a determined individual to get the data with which to check his allocation (even the last answer was incomplete, but after a few more months I managed to assemble the picture). As far as I can tell, every single form sent to me by HMRC has been wrong. I have savings from my hard-working bachelor youth so we can get by but the average family cannot.

Ah ha, concern about marginal tax rates. Now we’re getting somewhere. I hope you’ve read the research from the CPS that shows how someone on benefits can face marginal tax rates of up to 95.5%.

Don’t worry, we’re not confused on tax credits. We know exactly what they are.

3. mavis bristow

Tax credits is not only getting couples back to work and single people that otherwise are better off not working, but it also is the difference of people that are married, or with partners get back to work and help with costs of the nursery. If mums cannot get back to work with the help of these credits and going back to work they will also be joining the non workers, when all they want is to be able to provide for their families themselves.

We cannot continually expect couples either married or with partners to continually work without being able to have their own families as they are paying for everyone else, who many of are left unemployed through no fault of their own. Tax credits should definitely stay. Would the politicians like Theresa May and David Cameron be also to provide for their families and put them in nurseries with a joint income of £50,000. Couples with this joint income have worked jolly hard to get to this position to pay their own homes and families and cannot afford to be continually penalised.


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