Polling over summer favours Tories by 15%


by Chris Barnyard    
11:27 pm - August 29th 2009

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The Conservative party have a 17% lead in polls according to an Ipsos-Mori poll out in Sunday’s Observer.

The Tories stand at 43%, while Labour is at 26% and Libdems at 17%.

The Tory lead has roughly stabilised to around 15% with no real change over the entire summer, according to the head of Ipsos-Mori.

In a short analysis piece on their website, Sir Robert Worcester, founder of Mori, says:

In rainy July the eight published polls from six different polling organisations, fieldwork starting the 10th and ending the 30th July, averaged Conservatives 40.3%, Labour 25.1%, Liberal Democrats 19.3% and others combined, 15.4%.

Although the media made something of a meal of a July low of 38% for the Tories (Populus/The Times), which gave them a lead of just twelve percentage points, all eight were within the “standard” margin of error +/-3% of 40.3%. All eight polls had Labour at 25.1% (+-/3%), all eight had the Liberal Democrats at 19.3% and all eight had the others combined at +/-3% around 15.4%.

He adds that since the beginning of the year over 100,000 people have been questioned in 73 polls.

What does that say about the state of British politics?

First, since the beginning of the year, the monthly averages have shown that 42%/43% for the Tories in the spring has been sustained. The miserable 23% for Labour in May and June has recovered somewhat, except for a few numbers in the high 30s, and is now at 25%/26%.

However, the “core vote for Labour” of 30%, breached in the 1983 Election with 28.4% voting for Michael Foot as Leader of the Labour Party (the least popular leader in the polling history, with the least popular policies in polling history and the least well organised campaign in living memory), suggests that the current sustained level of Labour’s low level of support, not scoring any figure of 30% or above since early April, must make for dismal reading at Number 10 with the election forecasted to be on 6th May 2010.

A six-month trend picture is published here (PDF), covering several polling organisations.

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About the author
Chris is a regular contributor to Liberal Conspiracy. He is an aspiring journalist and reports stories for LC.
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Reader comments


1. gewyne

what on earth must the libs do to start breaking through.

2. Alix

I’m not sure there will be a “breakthrough moment”. That would be ideal from a media narrative point of view, of course, but I don’t think it works like that. The 19% average represents a steady climb up from the 11% or so of eighteen months ago, it’s just that that’s not very thrilling (to me neither).

3. Silent Hunter

Who the hell are the 25% who STILL want a Labour Government after all the utter shite that they have been responsible for?

Are they just too stupid to understand this or are they just as corrupt as the average Labour MP.

God save us from Labours ‘underclass’.

4. bluepillnation

Silent Hunter@3

I hope that they’re the people who know that no matter how badly some in the Labour Government have screwed up, a Tory Government would be far worse.

5. Joel

@Silent Hunter, 3

People still care about issues like Uni fees which could cripple them under a conservative government. The conservatives do a lot to alienate, really. There’s a lot of reason for someone to turn their back on the opposition.

As for the numbers… this week should have been a lot worse for the opposition.

6. monkeyfish

Silent Hunter..as I live and breathe…

How’s the tinfoil helmet?

Still ZanuLaboring your way around the interweb I see. I’d just advise you to be careful what you wish for…them Tories won’t be taking any prisoners when they introduce some kinda “respect agenda” for bloggers (free speech my arse)…they might not like the cut of your jib sir…nutjob, sarcastic, gonzo piss taking ain’t exactly ‘one of us’ is it?

We’ll probably end up in the same cell…I’m having the top bunk btw….and you better watch your back in them showers…you know what they say about us lefties.

7. L Gill

Do Mori polls really give a true reflection of public opinion ? Or is it simply trying to influence public opinion? I would suggest that the latter is true and the media are trying to influence people to vote for a Conservative party which laid down the foundations for the current economic climate which we face , when we were under Margaret Thatcher. David Cameron has no new policies and if you look at the education policy it appears that it is even more right wing that Thatcher , or wants to complete what Thatcher wanted to do , which is to run down state school funding and replace it with cash strapped charities trying to fund state funded education . How can people possibly regard running down state funded education as popular? Either Cameron and the Conservative party is misleading the voting public successfully or the media are helping the Tories to mislead the public , or both.

8. Steve

Silent Hunter asks

Who the hell are the 25% who STILL want a Labour Government after all the utter shite that they have been responsible for?

Obvious innit. Its the public sector employees who are beholden on Brown and co for their gold plated pensions.


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