I suppose if its the economy we are talking about here, then the loss in support of Merkel is a loss in support of avoiding huge bank bailouts, would I be right in saying this?

Otherwise, yes its good to see that the CDU is losing support to the left. My concern now is the composition of that left group; communists, socialists, social-democrats, left-of-centrists, doesn’t this look familiar?

Except Oskar Lafontaine is a bit of a racist:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/lafontaine-milks-ethnic-german-debate-for-votes-1341063.html

Denim Justice,

re: your 1996 article

if you set out to find stuff to smear a political opponent, especially as “racist”, then you could dig out any article about anybody. Ken Livingstone, for instance, has been accused of similar stuff as well, but -while many things, he is certainly NOT a racist.

Secondly, the controversy included in your link refers to an ongoing debate in the 1990s about people of German ancestry moving to Germany. Hence, as far as ethnicity goes, Lafontaine was asking a few questions about people of his same ethnic group, meaning that racist he wasn’t being.

Like, imagine if in ten year’s time (for instance due to a persistent crisis or other) a good chunk of the 800,000 Brits currently living in Spain suddenly decided to go back to Britain all in one go. Would a Minister expressing concern at how to best make that viable be branded as racist?

this is the first time in ages an openly socialist party notched up such a clear victory.

Don’t you have to actually win for it to qualify as a victory?

Hi Claude,

Worth noting that these results are similar to the results die Linke got in the federal elections in 2005:

Saxony – 23.6% compared to 22.8%
Thuringia – 27% compared to 26.1%
Saarland – 21.3% compared to 18.5%

http://electionresources.org/de/bundestag.php?election=2005&land=SL

So I’m not sure it is right to call it ‘unprecedented’ or to say that the surge is just because of recent events.

As for whether it damages Merkel’s chances of re-election, 2 thoughts:

1. it depends on whether die Linke are just taking votes from the SPD / Greens. To stop a CDU/CSU/FDP coalition, they either need to be taking votes from the centre-right or getting new voters to turn out.

2. the threat of the former East German communists being part of the federal government (in a red/red/green coalition) will presumably be used by the centre-right parties to motivate their supporters to go out and vote – which some of them might not have done if victory seemed certain.

millions of Germans decided to listen to “a party with attitude“, one that tells it like it is on redistribution, big business and the most brutal side effects of unfettered capitalism.

Do you honestly think that Germany is an exemplar of unfettered capitalism? Really?

länders

No such word. The German singular is Land (meaning province), the plural Länder (pronounced lender). If you’re going to pluralize it, either do so the English way or the German way, not both. Oh and German nouns always start with a capital letter.

– Phil the grammar Nazi

Denim Justice
#Except Oskar Lafontaine is a bit of a racist#

“As an estimated 700,000 eligible applicants await their turn “with suitcases packed” to join the annual flow of 220,000 Volga Germans from Russia, the government in Bonn, egged on by the opposition Social Democrats, is preparing to stem the tide.”

So a German wanting to limit the numbers of ethnic German immigrants into an already struggling economy is racist? Is anybody racist who doesn’t ascribe to a Neo-liberal / globalistaion / open-border agenda these days? Just wondering…you see I can see a perfectly valid Social Democrat justification in wanting to restrict the flow of cheap labour which might well oil the whees of capitalism on the one hand but act as a lever to reduce wages and employment rights on the other. Is that debate settled now? It’s open borders or “you’re a racist” these days is it? …even when dealing with immigrants of the same ethnicity?

I was quite encouraged by the headline “A left-wing success story in Europe”. Next time I see it I’ll know better…”Racists gains in German Heartland” Kinda makes you wonder what the Left has gotta do these days?

@6 Hi donpaskini,

but you’re comparing regional elections results with the national ones of Sep 2005 which doesn’t add up!

The comparison has to be made with the equivalent state elections in Saarland, which was five years ago and when Linke tallied 2,3%.

In any case, even if we look at your 2005 results, Linke were twenty points behind the SPD and got half the CDU votes. Now they are in the unique position of being crucial for the SPD to form the regional government if they wanted to.

Another element you’re not considering is the collapse of the CDU vote, until very recently believed to be sleepwalking into victory. Again, put against the equivalent polls in 2004, when the CDU had almost 50%, CDU lost 13% of the vote, which to me is extraordinary. Look at this for more details.

Most of those votes didn’t hemorrage to the right (with the partial exception of the FDP). They went to the left, instead – but not to the SPD, mind.

In Thuringia, Die Linke got 27,4% of votes, and by far the main opposition party while the CDU picked up just 32 per cent of the vote, a loss of around 12%, defined as “one of its worst results ever in the former East Germany”.

Those are both places were CDU had the ABSOLUTE MAJORITY whereas now, in both states, the Social Democrats, Linke (Left) Party and the Greens scored enough votes together to form governments.

It is true that Saxony was the least impressive of all, but again, Die Linke has twice the amount of votes as the Social Democrats, battered by 4 years of coalition government.

“The loss of votes in Thuringia and Saarland are painful,” CDU General Secretary Roland Pofalla said on Sunday evening”.

I maintain, especially as the big winners are Linke.

@7 Tim J
Do you honestly think that Germany is an exemplar of unfettered capitalism? Really?

Exactly when did I write that?

10 – um, in the bit I quoted?

RETURNONG HOME TO THE GERMAN MOTHERLAND

The awkward fact being that the ex-Soviet ‘Germans’ are often far from being German in any real sense at all. Two generations spent in Uzbekistan will do that!

Like the ex-Soviet ‘Jews’ with their expensive forged papers* and the not-genetically-Jewish-at-all* Ethiopian ‘Jews’ – the Falashas – their arrival in a not-so-healthy economy puts a horrible strain on a small country.

Yelling STOP is hardly racist behaviour.

* These issues have been chewed over at length in the English-language press in Israel. Young Ethiopians, lacking an obvious role model in Israel, have often opted to ape the vile manners and behaviour depicted on Gangsta-Rappa videos, with the inevitable result that they are disproportionately overrepresented in youth custody

@11 Tim J

The bit I wrote goes:
millions of Germans decided to listen to “a party with attitude“, one that tells it like it is on redistribution, big business and the most brutal side effects of unfettered capitalism.

Apparently you seem to think I’m of the opinion that Germany “is an exemplar of unfettered capitalism”. I’m not of that opinion. However Germany too contains some particularly brutal elements of capitalism that need correcting. Starvation wages (worse than Britain) in low paid jobs are one particular example.

Hi Claude,

2004 were mid-term local elections when CDU were in opposition – they were bound to do worse in 2009 (though I agree the scale is .

die Linke didn’t stand in the Saarland in 2004, the PDS stood, so that’s not a like-for-like comparison – die Linke were obviously going to do better with Lafontaine (former State Premier) as the leader than when they were standing as the successor to the East German communists.

In 2004, PDS got 26% in Thuringia and 23.6% in Saxony – similar sorts of results as in 2009.

The results are good – but they aren’t some kind of new breakthrough. There is a real problem for the Left in forming a majority coalition – their vote is split between SPD / Green / die Linke, but there is always pressure on SPD to rule out a Red/Red/Green coalition before elections (particularly after the unfortunate example of what happened in Hessen last year).

they were bound to do worse in 2009

CDU’s worst result since 1949! I mean, I understand a penchant for defeatism, but this…!

There is a real problem for the Left in forming a majority coalition

Well, there is a real problem for the CDU – from having an absolute majority alone, now they haven’t got the numbers to form a majority coalition with FDP either which is, allow me, fantastic.

die Linke didn’t stand in the Saarland in 2004, the PDS stood, so that’s not a like-for-like comparison – die Linke were obviously going to do better with Lafontaine

But gaining 19% is incredible! And if thats thanks to Lafontaine then so be it.

The linked issues of immigration, race and ethnicity and identity cannot be ignored for long:

http://www.steynonline.com/content/view/2357/

What white Germans are NOT doing is having babies.

“But gaining 19% is incredible!”

If it were the same party, sure. But in the Saar, DL is basically the old Lafontine faction of the SPD rather than the successor to all three Saarland members of the PDS. Which isn’t to say that it wasn’t a good result for them, just that it’s not amazing and will not be repeated in the rest of the Western länder.

As for the East, they did better than expected in Thuringia (no one expected them to come so close to catching the CDU) though whether they end up in government there depends on who the SPD decide to hook up with, but Saxony probably counts as a disappointment. Significantly, turnout fell in Saxony, but rose in Thuringia and the Saar.

“Now they are in the unique position of being crucial for the SPD to form the regional government if they wanted to.”

Actually, bot the Saar SPD and Saar Linke seem to be fine about working with each other – the party in the position described above is the Saar Greenies.

All well and good, Claude – but don’t you think having a left-wing party in the UK would be a start?

Again, if Cameron’s rhetoric is to be believed, Cameron’s Tories are more left-wing than NuLab! The LibDem’s are more left-wing than they.

The feeling I get is that people are wanting to move ‘left’ but have no one to vote for, so how can they?

Let’s compare 2009 with 2004 then, Claude:

Saxony:
2004 23.6%, 31/124 seats
2009 20.6%, 29/132 seats -3.0%, -2 seats

Thuringia:
2004 26.2% 28/88 seats
2009: 27.4% 27/88 seats +0.8% -1 seat

In both regions, the SPD gained support, in Saxony by a small amount that meant they gained a seat and maintained their share but in Thuringia by more, gaining three seats. In all regions mentioned, the FPD made gains as well, and on a more consistent basis than the Left, and the Greens also had a reasonably good result with gains in Saxony and Thuringia. Overall the CDU slipped, and if that trend continues it would seem that they are not going to have a hope of an outright majority in the Federal elections, or even to form a national coalition with the FDP alone.

Basically, the only real for the Left success was in Saarland, and a lot of that could be down to Lafontaine bringing his vote in along with his organisation in his home state. I fail to see how losing seats in other regions is a ‘victory’.

@23 Danivon,

Basically, the only real for the Left success was in Saarland,
A net gain of 19%. Basically. Destroying the CDU’s absolute majority. Basically. But anyway.

On to Thuringia. We could go on forveer here but:

the CDU went from huge 43% 2004 to 31,2%
The votes went overwhelmingly to the left parties. Linke gained 1.3% (now standing at 27.4%) but the SPD too did well with a 4% gain, and the Greens with +1.7%.

The fact that Linke lost a seat is only due to more parties overcoming the 5% hurdle of the German voting system in 2004 both the Greens and the FDP didnt manage, hence the same total of seats available is now to be split amongst more groups ), but their percentage is grown.

You can split hairs as much as you like, but in Thuringia too (like in Saarland) the left as a whole has made enormous gains as against the collapse of Merkel’s CDU. And no left-of-centre coalition would stand a chance given the enormous weight of Die Linke.

Incidentally. Can anyone envisage a party on the left of New Labour in England routinely tallying between 21 and 28% in entire regions? Maybe it’s time to shed perma-cynicism and analyse the phenomenon. They are doing something that we aren’t.

Apologies for the incomprehensible comment above (24). As I was editing it out my PC crashed!

I take this opportunity to say: when in Britain the BNP makes some rickety gains all newspapers are at it bigging it up and talking about their unstoppable rise.

Here there’s a solidly left-wing party with an excellent manifesto on welfare, labour laws and social policy, with serious proposals on minimum wage, job security and guarantees to tackle casualisation and millions of people are truly listening to them.

I think we should cherish their advances instead of engaging in the usual intra-left cynicism and hair-splitting.

Claude,

When I typed ‘Left’, I meant specifically the Linke Party, which is what your post was about. You can’t claim they had a ‘victory’ when they lost seats in 2/3 regions (one of which they would have gained two if they’d just stood still due to expansion).

The results are bad for the CDU (good!). They are ok for the SPD and Linke, but they are splitting their support. They seem to be better for the FPD and Greens in that they were more able to get over that 5% threshold.

Personally, I’d like to see a more united democratic socialist movement in Germany, but they seem pretty fractured right now. The CDU are losing, rather than the left gaining.