Labour still ahead of Tories in marginal seats

by Sunny Hundal
12:51 pm - April 29th 2010

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The latest IpsosMori polling from marginal seats has very grim reading for the Tories.

Con 35% (+3), Lab 38% (+2), Lib Dem 21% (-2)

Here’s the Ipsos-Mori verdict:

Voting intentions (among those absolutely certain to vote) in these key constituencies are Conservative 35%, Labour 38%, Liberal Democrat 21%, Others 6%. This represents a swing of 5.5% to the Conservatives since 2005. As in the previous three waves, this would result in a hung Parliament with the Conservatives as the biggest party. Certainty of voting in these constituencies has increased steadily over the last month, and a total of 71% of adults now say that they are absolutely certain to vote.

The increase in support for the Liberal Democrats in last week’s poll has been maintained, with 21% of voters saying they intend to vote Lib Dem (compared to 11% in the first two waves), even though almost all these constituencies are ones that the Liberal Democrats cannot realistically hope to win.

However, a week before polling day, almost half of the public say that they may change their mind before May 6th (46%). Conservative voters are more likely to have definitely decided (65%) than Labour and Lib Dem voters (51% and 42%).

Both Labour and Conservative supporters who say they may change their mind would be twice as likely to switch to the Liberal Democrats as to the other major party. Of Liberal Democrats who might change their minds, more think it would be to vote Labour (52%) than Conservative (33%), potentially strengthening Labour’s lead here.

In other words, even if sentiments shift, they are more likely to shift towards the Libdems than Conservatives or Labour.

Most of the polling was done before Bigot-gate, but it’s unlikely the polls will shift that decisively for the Tories. We are still very much in Hung Parliament territory.

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About the author
Sunny Hundal is editor of LC. Also: on Twitter, at Pickled Politics and Guardian CIF.
· Other posts by Sunny Hundal

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Reader comments

1:00 pm, April 29, 2010

1. Martin Coxall

Are those changes on 2005, or the last Mori marginals poll? I find it hard to imagine Labour being up 2 pts on 2005.

Without a 2005 comparator, we have no way to objectively measure the swings. Anyone have the 2005 numbers?

3:22 pm, April 29, 2010

2. cim

Martin Coxall: The changes are on the previous marginals poll. The numbers from the last election… Mori say the poll was “across 57 key marginal constituencies in Great Britain. These are Labour-held constituencies which the Conservatives need a swing of between 5% and 9% to win.” so roughly from Edinburgh South to Norwich North, though it’ll depend which notional figures you use and I don’t know exactly which ones they polled.

On average there’d have been Labour about 3.5% ahead of Conservatives in 2005 in those constituencies (varying between 2.5% and 4.5%), and on that poll they’re on average about 3% ahead still (3% margin of error on all figures, so it could realistically be anything from Labour+9 to Conservatives+3, of course)

It’s not great news for Labour, since they really need to keep almost all those seats, but it’s not good news for the Conservatives either, who really need to win almost all of them.

8:07 am, April 30, 2010

3. cim

Wait, hang on, I got that backwards. Sorry.

The constituencies in question would have been Lab+10 to Lab+18 at the last election, with an average of Lab+14. So if the average is now Lab+3 they’re now Con+1 to Lab+7 (but could plausibly be anywhere from the Con+7 to Lab+1 range to the Lab+5 to Lab+12 range, given the margin for error on the poll)

Still not particularly good news for either party, though.

3:14 pm, April 30, 2010

4. Reginald Fah-Fah

Bloody marvellous, Conservative Party for Government!

David Cameron is a Great English Gentleman to lead us to great victory and re-introduce fox hunting with dogs.

His speeches during the debates have been outstanding and it makes the nation realize that he is the right man for the job.

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