Meddling in our lives, despite evidence it doesn’t work


by Left Outside    
9:05 am - May 28th 2010

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The sacking of David Nutt by Alan Johnson last year cemented Labour’s reputation for policy based evidence making. The fitting of the facts to previously agreed upon policy objectives is an egregiously common practice for those in government.

The election to the Tory benches of Nadine “smear Tim Ireland” Dorries and the appointment of Philipa “cure the gays” Stroud to the back room of the Department for Work and Pensions left me nonplussed, to say the least. The lamentable loss of Evan Harris from parliament further dented any hope I had of a new rational approach to evidence and policy.

So I think it safe to say that I never had Chris Giles’ faith that the formation of a Conservative-Liberal coalition government would announce the resurrection of something long dead.

Yesterday, the temporary Lazarus of evidence based policy making has been put firmly back into his cave with the publication of the State of the Nation report.

The State of the Nation is a policy document which is fairly hot on highlighting correlation, but as Chris Giles points out, weak on justifying policy on causality. In pointing out that…

Children in lone-parent and stepfamilies are twice as likely to be in the bottom 20 per cent of child outcomes as children in married families.

… the report is entirely correct. Yet evidence from the Institute for Fiscal Studies show that there is little or no evidence that marriage has any discernible effect on a child’s emotional of social development. Better educated and richer parents are more likely to be married and are also more likely to be better parents.

This is a fact which is readily conceded in the report.

The evidence would thus suggest that we do not meddle in family structures as both family structures and child development are dependent on other variables. So other than encouraging people to be better educated and wealthier this Government may not have much chance at tackling either of its aims.

You would imagine then, that the policy recommendation following on from the above evidence would bare some resemblance to it, right?

Wrong. Rather than accept that meddling in the private lives of others is usually counter-productive and at worst a massive waste of resources the, report falls back upon the old fallacy that correlation is causation in recommending various interventionist measures despite being inches from evidence suggesting this is a waste of time and resources.

Is it clichéd yet? Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

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About the author
Left Outside is a regular contributor to LC. He blogs here and tweets here. From October 2010 to September 2012 he is reading for an MSc in Global History at the London School of Economics and will be one of those metropolitan elite you read so much about.
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Reader comments


Excellent.

Agree with every word.

When will they understand that ANY policy designed to engineer society or alter individual behaviour is unacceptable.

The election to the Tory benches of Nadine “smear Tim Ireland” Dorries … left me nonplussed, to say the least.

Damn that pesky democracy eh?

Even more amusing with the politicians jumping to obvious conclusions with causal statistics when the media seem to be taken the opposite step in dealing with the “Brushing Teeth” story.

Perhaps the universe has a natural balance when it comes to reporting such things ;-)

“Damn that pesky democracy eh?”

We musn’t criticise the democratically elected? I think you’ll find the opposite is true.

Just because someone is elected it doesn’t follow they’ll be predisposed to evidence based policy making, sometimes just the opposite. What’s your point?

When will they understand that ANY policy designed to engineer society or alter individual behaviour is unacceptable.

Well, that’ll simplify the legislative program…

Step 1: Repeal all existing laws.
Step 2: Go home.

Good article. The output of IDS’ Centre for Sociopathic Injustice (for such was the originator of the marriage tax break) is one of the main things that both Lib Dems within the coalition and lefties outside it should be campaigning against, in my opinion. I’m not sure yet what forms the campaign can take – others will be better at that bit. But if we can get some actual initiatives going, I reckon there are plenty of people happy to be channelled into activities. This is something that, as you hint, we can get the sceptic community involved in because it appears to be such a clear abuse of statistics. May I humbly offer up my own analogy of the cargo cult to describe the Tories’ “thinking” in this area:

http://fabulousblueporcupine.wordpress.com/2008/11/18/tax-before-marriage/

Actually, there are Tories who are embarrassed by the degree of policy-based evidence making on this subject, and they’d probably be silently cheering on any co-operative campaign.

Like the Methodrone ban, turns out Louis Wainwright and and Nicholas Smit hadn’t touched it, even this wasd apparently what killed them

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/10184803.stm

Well I’d be happy for less meddling by the state in private life, but sadly, it does work, not for the advantage of the masses, however. My biggest bugbear is tax credits, (no surprises there), wages could far easily be increased to a basic national standard by increasing the minimum wage. Instead people have to give-out more information to the state and are compelled to do so in order to receive the benefits. Moreover, the masses have to pay, through taxation, for employers who will not pay a decent wage, the many subsidize the poor, and that’s why the state interferes, it usually benefits the financial elite and it’s a form of control over the many.

@ steveb

wages could far easily be increased to a basic national standard by increasing the minimum wage.

I’m afraid, Steve, that would come under……..err……….meddling.

Just heard the latest………

Cameron response to Bradford murders.

Legalise smack so women don’t have to prostitute themseves to feed their drug usage?

No.

Decriminalise street prostitution so the women can work more safely?

No.

Let’s clamp down on kerb crawlers.

Yes. That’ll solve it.

WTF

11. Shatterface

Mention of David Nutt gives me an excuse to point out that neither of the two lads who police claimed had died as a result of taking mephodrone had actually touched the stuff:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article7139387.ece

12. oldpolitics

“When will they understand that ANY policy designed to engineer society or alter individual behaviour is unacceptable”

Really? No Government policy should aim to alter individual behaviour? Are you quite sure that’s what you mean?

13. Shatterface

Oops – Dave beat me to it. Still, a point worth making twice.

14. Nick Cohen is a Tory

Pagar at leat your not a libertarian hypocrite
Unlike tory shatterface

15. Left Outside

Thank you Dave and Shatterface, I agree its worth mentioning twice.

Mephedrone is not particularly dangerous, and I am sad to see further people’s tragic death further complicated by association.

Evidence is not important and rarely has been in government, I just wish people were more honest and admitted as such.

“My name is David Laws, and I will do whatever is politically advantageous, don’t pretend you want evidence you slags, I’ll do what you know is right.”

“When will they understand that ANY policy designed to engineer society or alter individual behaviour is unacceptable.”

So you will not be in favour of bribing people to get married?

And you will be against prison as well then?

You pretend libertarians do talk tosh.

17. Shatterface

‘Pagar at leat your not a libertarian hypocrite
Unlike tory shatterface’

I wouldn’t expect anything better from someone who’s pseudonym is an ad hom but you really are a tiresome little shit.

Why not back that ‘tory’ up with evidence seeing that this thread is actually *about* evidence?

9
I actually said less meddling.

19. Matt Munro

“The evidence would thus suggest that we do not meddle in family structures as both family structures and child development are dependent on other variables”.

As any first year psychology undergraduate could tell you. Apart from the extremes of abuse and neglect there is no evidence that parents/teachers/the government/”nurture” genreally make any measurable difference to developmental outcomes. In general the children of the stupid and apathetic do badly in life, the children of the bright and ambitious do well. Didn’t of course stop the left wingers who took over the welfare state from “intervening” to engineer some sort of egalitarian wet dream with everything from the sublime (skewing the benefits system towards single parents) to the ridiculous (“advising” parents what to put in their kids lunch boxes).
You can’t have it both ways, defending left wing interventions, howerver flawed, as being driven by good intentions but then complaining when the right do the same. It’s payback time.

19
All state intervention in capitalist societies serves the interests of the financial elite whether or not it’s labelled ‘left or right’.
Of course the children living in poverty and in a single-parent household are going to be at a disadvantage to chldren living in an affluent environment.
If you really believe that this is nothing more than nature you need to read the works of Gregor Mendel.

21. Left Outside

19

Evidence please, or I shall ignore you.

22. Mr S. Pill

@19

In general the children of the stupid and apathetic do badly in life, the children of the bright and ambitious do well.

So – if that utter nonsense is what you really believe – what is your solution? Sterilisation of the “stupid and apathetic”?

Ah, but previously there was this gem:

As any first year psychology undergraduate could tell you.

As any first year pysch student is still in thrall to Freud’n'Jung and pseudoscienctific “research” I can only assume you are a clever parody of yourself ;)


Reactions: Twitter, blogs
  1. Liberal Conspiracy

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  2. Rogue

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  3. irene rukerebuka

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  4. Craig Moss

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  5. Gareth Winchester

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  6. Denny de la Haye

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  7. Chris Preston

    Ignoring the politics, will we ever reach a point where people understand how correlation is different to causality? http://is.gd/csYs2

  8. Demoex UK

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  9. Denny

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