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Are Tories losing opinion on public services?

The Guardian / ICM poll tonight has bad news for the Tories: just 43% now think a coalition government was the right decision for Britain, down from 59% in May.

But I wonder if this is a bigger worry for the Tory-led government:

Almost half of those questioned – 49% – say things will get worse for the NHS, while 12% say it will improve. There are also fears for the future of state education: 54% say 2011 will be a worse year for schools than 2010, while 10% think it will be better.

There is little sign of public backing for the coalition’s promised reforms to schools and health: even among definite Conservative supporters, only 13% say schools will improve in 2011 and 15% say the same of the NHS.

If a majority of the public, even Conservative voters, do believe that public services will get worse thanks to government policy, then the political danger is potentially massive.

All it needs is for the public to keep making that connection and a few high-profile controversies to drain away a lot of support.

The caveat is that it also needs enough of the public to believe that front-line cuts were avoidable. Fortunately, the Tories are saying that anyway.

Already, according to a Comres/Mirror/Indy poll also out today, four in 10 voters believe the Tory-led coalition exaggerated the need for big cuts for party political reasons.

The Comres poll also found that just 30% believe the cuts are fair to all sections of society, with 54% disagreeing.

Tories do embarrassing u-turn on Booktrust cut

This morning it was reported by the Observer:

Britain’s poet laureate has accused the government of behaving like “scrooge at his worst” after ministers decided to axe all funding for a free book scheme that benefits 3.3 million youngsters a year.

Carol Ann Duffy, who was appointed poet laureate in 2009, leads a series of writers who have attacked the decision to cut all government funding for the Booktrust charity which provides free books for children from the age of nine months until their first term of secondary school when they are 11.
…
They began as a pilot project in 1992 but were awarded government funding in 2004 to become universal. But 10 days ago – despite having previously offered to take a 20% funding cut – the charity was told it was to lose 100% of its £13m-a-year government grant.

But after worries they might be branded ‘Christmas scrooges’ – ministers u-turned completely by the afternoon:

In a joint statement, the Department for Education (DFE) and Booktrust said that the DFE would now continue to finance the programme which benefits 3.3 million children a year in England.

“The Department for Education and Booktrust are determined to ensure that reading for pleasure is a gift every child can enjoy. That is why the DFE will continue to fund Booktrust book-gifting programmes in the future,” the statement said.

It comes hard on the heels of Michael Gove’s hurried retreat over plans to axe funding for the School Sports Partnership scheme in England, which had been slated to close.

How many u-turns has Michael Gove done now? Is he the most incompetent minister ever?

‘Replace IHT with a tax on expensive gifts’

Inheritance Tax should be abolished and replaced with a new tax on gifts to individuals over £150,000, according to a new report from ippr.

The report argues that Inheritance Tax is no longer worth defending in the face of declining revenues and public hostility, and that there is a strong case for replacing it with a progressive Capital Receipts Tax on cash and non-cash gifts.

This would stop tax avoidance by the super rich and reduce wealth inequalities in Britain.

ippr wants to see a Capital Receipts Tax on gifts worth over £150,000 with a band system to tax bigger gifts at higher amounts, up to a maximum of 40 percent:

• gifts between £150,000 and £300,000 would be taxed at 20%
• gifts between £300,000 and £450,000 would be taxed at 30%
• gifts over £450,000 would be taxed at 40%
• gifts between married or civil partnered couples would be completely exempt.

ippr’s report argues that the tax reform would:

• be a direct contribution to reducing wealth inequality,
• promote a wider distribution of wealth by creating an incentive for a wider disbursement of estates so as to limit beneficiaries’ tax bills,
• remove the ability of the very wealthy to dispose of some of their assets during their lifetime.

A Capital Receipts Tax on gifts above £150,000 would raise £1 billion more revenue than Inheritance Tax does now. ippr’s report argues that the extra funds could be used to expand free nursery education to promote social mobility.

The tax reform would raise enough to offer a free nursery place to the poorest two thirds of families when their child reaches the age of two.

Nick Pearce, ippr Director, said:

A Capital Receipts Tax on gifts above £150,000 would raise £1 billion more revenue than Inheritance Tax does now and would be a fairer means of increasing equality of opportunity. It would spread wealth better across the generations, by incentivising families to pass on their wealth to a greater number of children and grandchildren.

The proceeds of a switch from Inheritance Tax to a Capital Receipts Tax could be used to fund an expansion of free nursery education, a key driver of social mobility. This would be the best way of passing on opportunity, not privilege, from one generation to the next.

Inheritance Tax is paid at a rate of 40% of the value of the estate above the £325,000 threshold.

Because tax is paid only on the value of the estate above the threshold, the average, or effective, tax rate is always less than 40%. An estate of £1 million, for example, will pay £270,000, an effective tax rate of 27%.

From a press release

My predictions for 2011

2010 will most likely be remembered as the year we all looked at each other and said, ‘you mean people still vote Conservative?’

But what of 2011? What thrills and spills are to come? Here are a few of my predictions. Why not read them and offer a few of your own?
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Exclusive: government ministers’ Christmas announcements

contribution by Rumbold

As made during the year 0 AD:

George Osborne: The three wise men did bring expensive items into this country it’s true. But since they were only visiting for forty days, they are classed as non-domiciled; given that they earnt the money for these items elsewhere they won’t be taxed on them. The fact that these three businessmen recently donated gold, frankincense and myrrh to the Conservative party is neither here nor there.
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Vince Cable confession gets animated

How Britain could learn from America in helping low-income families

contribution by Sophia Parker

Antipathy towards ‘welfare’ is even more pronounced in the US than even the ‘benefit scrounger’ tropes of the British media suggest.

But the tax cut deal that President Obama and the Republicans reached last week should give UK progressives cause for thought. Where June’s Emergency Budget and October’s Spending Review by Osborne reduce and remove supports for low and modest income families, Obama’s deal reinforces and extends these supports.
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The fall of Tommy Sheridan

That Tommy Sheridan was the most charismatic and gifted revolutionary socialist politician of recent decades is beyond serious dispute, and I always used to admire him for that. I still do, I suppose.

In a period where the left  failed to find a widespread hearing, he alone proved capable of building a substantial electoral base for basic class struggle ideas.

Without him, the Scottish Socialist Party would not have achieved the measure of success it did achieve, and the credit for this can never be taken away from him.
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Police try to pin absurd charges on student

A few days ago Bristol student protester Paul Saville had his house raided by the police.

Bristol Indymedia reported:

At 5am on Saturday 18th December the home of UWE Student and Anti-cuts & Fees campaigner Paul Saville was raided by police. He was arrested on suspicion of affray and conspiracy to commit affray.

Paul, who was involved in the recent UWE occupation was held for 12 hours. His computer, mobile phone and note books have all been seized.

It now turns out the police had little real evidence to raid Mr Saville’s house and seize his possessions.

He writes about the ordeal on his blog:

I was detained for 12 hours in cell number 9 at trinity road police station, Bristol. After repeated requests to a solicitor I was refused, I was told I would see a solicitor when I was interviewed. I asked for a pen and paper. A pen and paper never came. Out of the three meals I sould have been offered during my detention, I only recieved one meal. After requesting a blanket as the cell I was in was so cold, I was refused, as I had already got one. I also requested to make my phone call, I never got this either.

All of the above apart from the blanket are my LEGAL RIGHT and recieved none of them.

Even worse was the attempt to pin charges on him:

After being in the cell for nearly 10hours, I was finally interviewed by two police officers: two dectives from the serious crime squad. They showed me a video that includes me stroking a police horse at the front of a police kettle and then suddenly a firework goes towards the police. firstly, they asked me whether it was me in the video. Of course I said it was me, as i have nothing to hide.

They tried to pin this on me! they tried to say that it was me that threw the firework, which I quickly denied, of course this was not me! after watching the video shown to me in the interview which was taken from BBC Bristol, I was quick to point out “how could I have thrown a firework if with one hand I am stroking a police horse” Of course, it is obviously impossible to light a firework and throw it with one hand.

Mr Saville was eventually released on bail and due to make an appearance at the local police station on the 26th of January.

Read his full blog post here / via @marmite_)

Last year Bristol police arrested and locked Paul Saville in a cell for two hours simply for writing on a pavement “Liberty. The right to question it. The right to ask: ‘Are we free?’.”

He was eventually released, but was forced to give DNA samples.

Labour needs to rediscover campaigning, not just vision

Anthony Painter has an article on Left Foot Forward, which argues that Labour has spent the last year engaged in “displacement activity”, and needs instead to set out a new vision and to articulate a different future.

The four pieces of “displacement activity” which Labour was apparently involved in was plotting against Gordon Brown, the general election campaign (!), the leadership election and campaigning against the cuts. And what Labour needs to do instead of this permanent campaigning is set out a vision of “an economy that provides good jobs in new creative services and industry; that re-defines public value and values for the post-austerity age; and makes real the promise of the Big Society as a new citizenship that tangibly improves communities and lives.”

This might be the defining statement of the Pamphlet Labour tendency – a clever, articulate piece which argues the totally nonsensical proposition that campaigning in elections is displacement activity for the Labour Party and is a distraction from the key task of re-defining public value and values for the post-austerity age.
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