“As everyone knows, the general public can’t cope with the idea that more than one thing might be happening at once in Africa.”

That is a pretty patronising note on which to begin.

I think the public can cope with more than one thing going on in Africa at once, Nick, it’s the mainstream media that doesn’t seem to think so. Hence my criticism of them for not reporting what’s been going on in Abyei.

Look, this deal may not be perfect, but it is actually pretty damn good. The North gave up the South with all its oil without a fight. At a time the West had zero chance of actually making them do anything. After Iraq I doubt there is any will for even so much as more sanctions. Just look at Libya and the NFZ.

So most of the South will become independent. If we have to buy off the North with a little bit more territory to let this bit go, or even let them keep it, it is not a perfect solution, but it is vastly better than anything anyone could have expected ten years ago. Or even two years ago. We have little ability to influence the outcome here.

Perhaps for once we could try to see the glass half full?

Pretty bold claim to make that acts of genocide and ethnic cleansing are happening in Abyei – who particularly have you been talking to in South Sudan? You appear to be a missionary and a self-declared diplomat – what role exactly are you taking here? Are you with the Save Darfur gang and the Enough Project?

You’re right that there’s a fine line between apportioning the ‘right amount’ of blame to north and south and just saying both sides are being equally unhelpful. But I think in making the kind of sweeping statements here you’re actually generalising about the northern NCP government’s aims and intentions, as well as the Dinka Ngok’s position and that of GoSS.

So far the militias that burnt the villages are of unknown origin; there are huge reports of clashes between Misseriya and the Ngok Dinka, as well as clashes with SPLM-DC and Athor’s militia elsewhere. It’s not quite as north-south as I think you would like it to be, or as ‘genocidal’ in its character as you portray it.

#3

You’re right that very few predicted we would get this far down the line, that a Southern referendum declared free and fair and credible would have taken place and that the North would have issued a statement accepting the results.

What you ignore when you say “If we have to buy off the North with a little bit more territory to let this bit go” is that Southerners have done this several times already. Compromise was embedded in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, again in the Abyei Boundaries Commission decision, again in the Road Map, PCA verdict etc. Southerners are not ready to compromise again. They feel further compromise would be trading the claims of some of the Dinka Ngok against the claims of other Dinka Ngok, and are not prepared to do this. What’s more, the international community may be underestimating feelings on the subject of Abyei. I believe if Salva Kiir did not authorise the SPLA to defend the Dinka Ngok and to secure Abyei in the final instance should a just resolution prove impossible, senior officers with strong links to Abyei would mutineer and do it anyway. So fundamentally I don’t believe the solution you identify IS a pragmatic solution, and the sooner the international community recognise this, the better.

What’s more, further compromise on the part of Southerners is not the way to reach a sustainable agreement. If the basis of a final settlement on Abyei is the current balance of forces in Abyei following land grabs in the last few months, the borders of Abyei will always be subject to the balance of forces between the Dinka Ngok and the Misseriya. Much better to base them on something that has some permanency – like, say, the result of an international process of arbitration that SPLM and NCP both agreed to abide by and whose results were accepted, at first, by both parties.

If you’re really interested, I expound on these arguments a lot more in a briefing I wrote for FPC. The link in the article above doesn’t seem to work, so here it is: http://fpc.org.uk/fsblob/1321.pdf

#4

No, I’m not with Save Darfur or the Enough project, I’m independent. Having said that, what I’m proposing is very similar to the Sudan Act Now campaign, which I attempted to link to at the bottom of the article above, and is here for reference: http://www2.americanprogress.org/p/dia/action/public/?action_KEY=123 (fwiw, I did meet someone from Enough while I was out in Abyei; I do have respect for them as their photographer actually went to Abyei and very few organisations are willing to do that)

In terms of my credentials, well for a start I was in Abyei towards the end of last year. That in itself is fairly unusual. I spoke with community leadership, government officials, political figures, youth, women, cattle-owners, traders, teachers, health workers, church leaders and congregations, UN and others and remain in close contact, getting regular information from the ground from a variety of sources. I’ve also been in contact with various organisations and individuals based in the UK from Sudanese diaspora to academics to NGOs/campaign organisations etc since returning to discuss how these issues can best be taken forwards.

As far as generalising is concerned, I appreciate I don’t deal with all the issues in the 600 words above. Check my fpc article, linked in the last comment for more details. But I feel you’re being a little naive about the relationship between the Misseriya and the NCP (certainly the leadership of the Misseriya, which many feel is unrepresentative of traditional Misseriya culture or Misseriya youth, but which has the “right” ideology to secure patronage from the GoS), and especially about fighting in the South. Have you seen the recent leaked documents suggesting that the GoS has been giving arms to Athor and other rebels who’ve been fighting against SPLA in the South? Of course, the NCP claim they are forgeries but experts disagree, and history suggests it is highly likely. Check Prof Eric Reeves’ site for a good piece on why they are probably not forgeries.

However, where I would agree with you is that we should not paint the dynamics of Sudan as being purely “North-South”, which I don’t do. Obviously in talking about Abyei this is an important dynamic, but it’s precisely because all the problems in Sudan won’t be magically fixed through separation of the South that in the article above I criticise the UK for having “followed the US in creating the impression that the reintegration of Sudan into the international community is a one-off reward for permitting the separation of the South. This allows the Government of Sudan to think they can get away with continued abuse of human rights in Abyei, Darfur, the Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile regions, as well as reforming Sudan’s constitution to limit existing rights after separation of the South.”

Re the choice of words, how would you describe the burning of villages and forced displacement of thousands of people from a single tribe in order to secure land and resources, other than ethnic cleansing? I appreciate “acts of genocide” is a more controversial phrase, and I haven’t used it in model text to MPs for that reason. I chose to use it out of respect for those on the ground who have used it in describing to me what is taking place in phone calls, texts & emails since I returned.

#4 aside from that, just looked at your blog. Was particularly interested in your comments on how the focus of reporting on women in Sudan is on abuse and paints them as victims rather than political actors (sorry if I’m over-simplifying). I’m about to write a piece I’ve been asked for for a local union publication on women in South Sudan and will base it on discussions with women in the South and border areas (particularly in Juba, Rumbek and Wau, also Malakal & Abyei – I also visited Kadugli but only briefly and had few discussions with women in that area) about their views and political activity in the lead-up to the referendum, the likely consequences of the referendum for them and how their political activity would shift if/when separation was achieved. If you’re willing to take a look at it and comment on it before it’s published, let me know.