UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years


8:45 am - June 1st 2011

by Newswire    


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The UK economy is set to experience the slowest pick-up in consumer spending of any post-recession period since 1830, according to a Financial Times analysis of official forecasts.

Given that consumer spending powers the bulk of British economic growth, the impact will be massive.

The FT looked into forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility, which projects spending in 2015 to be just 5.4% above the 2008 peak.

But a survey of 18 major recessions since 1830 showed that consumer spending on average recovered to 12% above previous peak within seven years.

At the equivalent stage after recessions in the early 1980s and 1990s, spending was 20 per cent and 15 per cent higher respectively

This will make the current economic recovery the slowest of any comparable post-recession period.

And these are the government’s own projections.

Put simply, they expect this period of relative stagnation to last for over a decade.

The Treasury says they hope stronger export growth and business investment could offset the fall in consumer and government spending.

Exports and business investment?! The chances of export-led growth are virtually nil and business investment has been falling for years.

Thanks to Osborne’s unwillingness to pump money into the economy, we’re screwed. They know it. We know it. Someone tell the media industry.

Update: Some have asked me what Labour (or even I) would have done instead. Answer here: I were the Shadow Chancellor…

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Reader comments


1. Bob B

“The chances of export-led growth are virtually nil and business investment has been falling for years.”

This ONS chart plots what has been happening to business investment since 2001:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=258

And this charts Britain’s current balance of (international) payments since 2005:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=194

I do wonder whether George Osborne and his special advisers ever look at these charts from the Office of National Statistics.

2. Left Outside

Sunny, you at least used to put on a different writing style when publishing as newswire…

We are screwed though i agree. I’m just not sure where the growth will come from. I’d give monetary expansion a go, and try and inflate another, any, bubble. But they’re not necessarily good ideas.

3. paul

there was a clear choice at the last election. labour believed in some cuts ,tories believed in more severe cuts. we’ll see who was right but its not looking good for the tories . the massive cuts will slow down the recovery .

4. Bob B

To round off the charts showing where the extra spending is coming from to make up for the cuts in public spending – and the cuts have barely started as yet – try this ONS chart on Consumer spending:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=11


Reactions: Twitter, blogs
  1. Liberal Conspiracy

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  2. Captain Swing

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  3. Martin Shovel

    RT @libcon: UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years http://bit.ly/kKernW

  4. Peter Eggison

    @ConHome Congratulations, Tories, well done. UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years http://bit.ly/kKernW

  5. sunny hundal

    Thanks to Osborne's unwillingness to prop up the economy: 'UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years' http://bit.ly/kKernW

  6. manishta sunnia

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  7. Woodo

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  8. Susan Thorne

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  9. Tweet4Labour

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  10. ANDREW JENNINGS

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  11. Pen

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  12. Cheadle Labour

    Thanks to Osborne's unwillingness to prop up the economy: 'UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years' http://bit.ly/kKernW

  13. Perri Lewis

    Thanks to Osborne's unwillingness to prop up the economy: 'UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years' http://bit.ly/kKernW

  14. dolly daydream

    Thanks to Osborne's unwillingness to prop up the economy: 'UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years' http://bit.ly/kKernW

  15. Andrew Griffiths

    UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/tOlfIsO via @libcon

  16. VirtualResistance

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  17. Oasis Caretaker

    Thanks to Osborne's unwillingness to prop up the economy: 'UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years' http://bit.ly/kKernW

  18. Janet Rochford

    Thanks to Osborne's unwillingness to prop up the economy: 'UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years' http://bit.ly/kKernW

  19. Jill Hayward

    Thanks to Osborne's unwillingness to prop up the economy: 'UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years' http://bit.ly/kKernW

  20. Jane Phillips

    “@libcon: UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years http://t.co/rfQzNLi” Gideon are you reading this?..Oh yes I forgot..you don't care!!

  21. Emily Davis

    Thanks to Osborne's unwillingness to prop up the economy: 'UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years' http://bit.ly/kKernW

  22. Matt Tancock

    Well done George: UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years http://bit.ly/jcOOHC @conservatives #welldonegeorge

  23. lesa

    Thanks to Osborne's unwillingness to prop up the economy: 'UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years' http://bit.ly/kKernW

  24. Broken OfBritain

    RT @libcon: UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years http://bit.ly/kKernW

  25. meme

    UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/xqHbBFw via @libcon

  26. meme

    UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/xqHbBFw via @libcon

  27. Chris Paul

    Thanks to Osborne's unwillingness to prop up the economy: 'UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years' http://bit.ly/kKernW

  28. Peter Johnson

    Thanks to Osborne's unwillingness to prop up the economy: 'UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years' http://bit.ly/kKernW

  29. Watching You

    Thanks to Osborne's unwillingness to prop up the economy: 'UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years' http://bit.ly/kKernW

  30. malcolm

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  31. Swamp Thang

    Thanks to Osborne's unwillingness to prop up the economy: 'UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years' http://bit.ly/kKernW

  32. Elinor Predota

    Thanks to Osborne's unwillingness to prop up the economy: 'UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years' http://bit.ly/kKernW

  33. Christian

    Thanks to Osborne's unwillingness to prop up the economy: 'UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years' http://bit.ly/kKernW

  34. Laura Belton

    Thanks to Osborne's unwillingness to prop up the economy: 'UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years' http://bit.ly/kKernW

  35. sunny hundal

    Why isn't Osborne defending his super-duper growth plan @ToryPressHQ http://bit.ly/kKernW ? Is it because he doesn't have one?

  36. Natacha Kennedy

    Why isn't Osborne defending his super-duper growth plan @ToryPressHQ http://bit.ly/kKernW ? Is it because he doesn't have one?

  37. Birmingham Clarion

    Why isn't Osborne defending his super-duper growth plan @ToryPressHQ http://bit.ly/kKernW ? Is it because he doesn't have one?

  38. Daniel Pitt

    UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years http://bit.ly/kKernW #ConDemNation

  39. Robert Frost

    Thanks to Osborne's unwillingness to prop up the economy: 'UK recovery set to be slowest in 180 years' http://bit.ly/kKernW

  40. The myth of Tory credibility on the economy | Sunny Hundal – Marcus Evans Offices

    […] realised that their economic credibility is sinking fast. Moreover, if recovery remains sluggish, as their own projections say it will, then voters will punish them at the next election. The U-turn – from highlighting how deep it […]

  41. The myth of Tory credibility on the economy | Sunny Hundal | MyBlogWorld

    […] realised that their economic credibility is sinking fast. Moreover, if recovery remains sluggish, as their own projections say it will, then voters will punish them at the next election. The U-turn – from highlighting how deep it […]

  42. ‘Shameful’ anti-reform Lib Dem peers, the slowest recovery for 180 years, and is the Labour shadow cabinet half asleep? Round up of political blogs for 28 May – 3 June | British Politics and Policy at LSE

    […] Conspiracy covers news from the FT that the UK’s recovery is set to be the slowest for 180 years, and The Coffee House believes that the fires are being stoked in the inflation battle. The […]

  43. The myth of Tory credibility on the economy (enhanced version) | Liberal Conspiracy

    […] realised that their economic credibility is sinking fast. Moreover, if recovery remains sluggish, as their own projections say it will, then voters will punish them at the next […]

  44. The myth of Tory credibility on the economy | Sunny Hundal

    […] realised that their economic credibility is sinking fast. Moreover, if recovery remains sluggish, as their own projections say it will, then voters will punish them at the next election. The U-turn – from highlighting how deep it […]

  45. sunny hundal

    Pity the Today Prgrm did not point out the govt's own projections indicate the slowest recovery in nearly 2 centuries! http://bit.ly/kKernW

  46. The Bee

    Pity the Today Prgrm did not point out the govt's own projections indicate the slowest recovery in nearly 2 centuries! http://bit.ly/kKernW

  47. Jill Hayward

    Pity the Today Prgrm did not point out the govt's own projections indicate the slowest recovery in nearly 2 centuries! http://bit.ly/kKernW

  48. Mabel Horrocks

    Pity the Today Prgrm did not point out the govt's own projections indicate the slowest recovery in nearly 2 centuries! http://bit.ly/kKernW

  49. Molly

    Pity the Today Prgrm did not point out the govt's own projections indicate the slowest recovery in nearly 2 centuries! http://bit.ly/kKernW

  50. David Poole

    Pity the Today Prgrm did not point out the govt's own projections indicate the slowest recovery in nearly 2 centuries! http://bit.ly/kKernW





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