How Cam’s ratings have collapsed since election


by Éoin Clarke    
3:01 pm - July 24th 2011

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In the 63 YouGov polls since David Cameron became PM there has been one clear pattern. He’s bombed.

He has gone form highs of +47% in approval ratings to today’s record low of -16% as PM.

That’s a net turnaround of 63%.

Since June of 2010, more than 10 million voters have ceased to approve of the PM. And a whopping 16 million extra now disapprove of him.

That’s a net change in the opinions of 26million voters.

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About the author
Eoin is an occasional contributor. He is a founder of the Labour-Left think-tank and writes regularly at the Green Benches blog.
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Reader comments


1. Jimmy

I don’t think leader’s approval ratings are that useful. Labour have been ahead in polls for ages with Miliband not doing well in approval, while the Tories have been behind despite Cameron being much less unpopular.

It doesn’t address where the loss of support is from – people in the centre, or right wingers who think Cameron isn’t right wing enough or compromising too much. Happy though I am to see Cameron’s ratings slide, its meaningless unless supported by voting intention.

2. Charles Wheeler

Everything Cameron has been associated with – from his walk-on part in the ERM debacle, through the decision to sell off forests (where he couldn’t see the wood for the trees), his arms dealing during the uprisings, to the parcelling off of the NHS, and his incestuous relationship with the media has been a disaster. Even his election ‘victory’ based on the votes of just 25% of the electorate and an enforced marriage of convenience was less than impressive seen against the backdrop of an economic meltdown and the implosion of New Labour.

So, the question is: how has he been able to maintain a veneer of competence. Aside from an obsequious media (take a bow Martin Kettle)? It can only be down to his breeding and an atavistic impulse among some to defer to the ruling class (oh, combined with the fact that he articulates the interests of the rich and powerful).

3. blackwillow1

Cameron has survived this far, by the skin of his teeth, because of numerous factors. Being propped up by the libdems in their phoney aliance, the long wait for Ed Miliband to show some metal(he’s getting there now), the reluctance of moderate consevatives to criticise him, preferring power under a leader they do’nt rate, to the dangers of a possible election they do’nt think he could win. Add to that the general sense of apathy amongst the public, is it any wonder he still clings to the job, a tenuous grip certainly, but he’s still there. The Murdoch scandal has damaged him, no doubt about it, but with everything else going on around the world, he’s probably hoping that the interest will fade and people will forget just how close to the whole sorry affair he appears to be. I have a feeling there is more to be revealed, regarding Cameron and the Murdoch empire, not a new opinion I know, but something tells me that his involvement goes much deeper than a few cosy chats at the dinner table. I think particular attention needs to be paid to other leaders of other nations, how are they linked to Murdoch, what did he tell them about Cameron, what did he tell Cameron about them. Let’s face it, Murdoch is more than just a media baron, he’s a political chess player. Here’s hoping that someone, somewhere has a few nuggets of information that can rid us of this lame duck PM and his incompetent shower of shite.

4. XXX

This statistic is fairly meaningless without telling us (a) what the usual pattern of leaders’ approval ratings is — most politicians’ ratings go down over time, and are Cameron’s going down faster, slower, or about the same as usual; (b) what people think of Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg — they might not like Cameron, but if the alternatives are also seen as bad, they might vote for them anyway; and (c) voting intention — as Jimmy pointed out, Labour have been ahead in the polls despite their leader being less popular than Cameron. Is this reduced popularity going to translate into fewer votes, and if so, how many will he lose?

5. Luis enrique

I’m not sure I understand these numbers. Is an approval rating the percentage who approve minus the percentage who disapprove?

In which case it would not make sense to talk of a 63% change when subtracting
-16 from 47 because that way you can easily get numbers in excess of 100% (if he went from 100% approve to 100% disapprove that way of doing it would produce a 200% change).

I’m not sure about the number of voters who change their mind either.

Say you started A=73 and D=26 (so plus 47) and ended A=42 and D=58 (so minus 16) that only requires 31% of voters to switch, from A to D, and I don’t think 31% of voters is 26million people is it? Uk electorate 45.2m.

But hey, who cares about details.

6. Gordon Rae

Given that the total turnout at the 2010 General Election was 29.6m, a net drop in support of 26m is pretty bad.

Source: BBC http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8672976.stm

7. rook

The graph is interesting and pretty,
and significant in a modest way as a rough indicator.
The headline describes it well.

For the maths, and a more correct interpretation of the numbers, I recommend the excellent post by Luis Enrique (post 5, above).

btw, I think the change from plus 47 to minus 16 may be described as a flat difference of 63 points.

8. John Q. Publican

So. No-one likes Labour. No-one likes Cameron. And yet, the LDs still won’t win an election….

9. BenM

The Tories poll ratings are slightly more dependent on voter opinions of Cameron. People tend to like Cameron and distrust the Tory Party itself.

Labour’s ratings seem to act – marginally – in the opposite way.

This is why Cameron’s approval ratings correlate a bit with how the Tories perform overall in voting intention polls.

If he doesn’t remain scandal free, voters will look behind him and, usually (and rightly in my opinion), don’t like what they see.


Reactions: Twitter, blogs
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  26. Gordon Rae

    29.6m cast a vote in #GE2010. 26m now dislike Cameron. http://bit.ly/pWW74W

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  37. Mensch apologises to Morgan, a no-growth situation, and Steve Hilton’s bizarre policy ideas – round up of political blogs for 23 – 29 July | British Politics and Policy at LSE

    [...] Paul Waters at Liberal Democrat Voice blogs that David Cameron will not be Prime Minister in a year’s time, as Eoin Clarke at Liberal Conspiracy charts Cameron’s declining poll ratings. [...]





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