No word on the mother of all Somali problems: al-Shabab and its Islamic ideology.

http://www.owen.org/blog/4818

As an antidote to “half baked commentary”, as he puts it

I just though it a bit pointless to go into where I get my info when it’s not hugely relevent. in this case, I’ve done 3 diffrent physics degrees, so have at least some knowledge in the field…

I said I wasn’t going to get into the argument about is global warming good for agriculture argument, but there is a fair amount of evidence to show that a certain warming and more C02 in the atmosphere *is*.

As you should know, if you have farming family in Zim, is that famine there was *nothing* to do with AGW etc. It was all to do with Bob Mugabe. Here in SA crops were (and are) good and have bene for some time. AGW doesn’t stop at the border…

But, all round, good points about Somalia Tyler.

I do have some technical knowledge of both…and some knowledge of Somalia.

Greenhouses work on the basis of trapping heat and C02….which plants need a lot of both. This being good for agriculture – and not wanting to get into a debate about global warming on that front.

The links between AGW and disruption in water systems isn’t exactly proven science either…despite a lot of people calling every flood or storm a result of it. Statistically there is little significant change in the occurence of these events. It’s near impossible to assign definite causality.

What it really boils down to though, is that Somalia and surrounding regions are generally shit places for agriculture, and have been so for a very long time – long before anyone even mentioned AGW. Many parts of the country are essentially constantly shifting desert. Add in an almost constant war and poor land and water management and a significant increase in the population since WW2 and you have a recipe for disaster.

But basically the point is this is nothing to do with banks or AGW.

I’d question your depth of knowledge regarding climate change and agriculture though. They key concern is about large scale disruption of water systems, and last I checked, people used water in agriculture.

Food prices in Somalia have not been affected by specualtion. It’s a totally closed economy. Internal political problems are near enough the sole reason for this problem.

As an example, nearby Eritrea and Ethiopia aren’t having the same problems with their harvests.

It’s like saying the food crisis in Zimbabwe was caused by a combination of bankers and global warming. i’ll tell you for free, sitting as I do in South Africa, that it wasn’t…unless of course bankers and global warming’s effects stopped at the border.

As for global grain prices in general, and the reasons why prices are going up;

– Global population is increasing
– Global population is getting richer, so requiring more meat (= approx 7x more grain per calorie)
– US dollar has been devalued through QE

This is nothing to do with speculation, which reduces price volatility. Outright, pure speculators are simply too small to have a real effect on such a massive market. Government driven economic policies like Europe’s CAP have effects magnitudes larger.

As for the effect “in the West” that is ruining so many of our lives? Again, prices have increased and the currencies we use to pay for our goods have devalued. Add in high taxes and the debt overhang free spending governments have left us with, and you are closer to the truth than blaming global warming (last time I checked people use greehouses to trap CO2 and heat to IMPROVE crop yields) and speculators.

In other words we are culpable of crimes against humanity – or is it just Northern Crock’s fault?