Consumer confidence now points to a UK recession


by Richard Exell    
10:10 am - October 29th 2011

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If yesterday’s GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Barometer measured air pressure we’d be getting ready for a hurricane.

The overall measure has slipped from -30 to -32, down 13 points from October 2010′s -19.

All the different elements are negative, all are down on last year and none are up on last month:

We’re getting so used to this sort of measure, I wasn’t going to mention it, but then I looked through the charts that accompany the press release.

Does this look suggestive to you?

It certainly did to Nick Moon, the Managing Director of GfK NOP Social Research, who pointed out that this is only the third time since 1974 the Index has passed below -32:

On both previous occasions – June 2008 and March 1990 – consumer confidence was entering periods of sustained weakness and the UK economy was going into recession. At this point in time, consumers’ outlook is becoming increasingly pessimistic about the UK’s general economic situation over the coming year. Additionally, the climate for major purchases has worsened, suggesting the government can’t rely on people spending their way out of the double-dip recession that is likely to be on the horizon.

The business world really doesn’t like negatives – when MDs start pointing out that their products suggest there’s a recession on the way it’s time to notice.

—-
Cross-posted from Touchstone blog

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About the author
Richard is an regular contributor. He is the TUC’s Senior Policy Officer covering social security, tax credits and labour market issues.
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Reader comments


1. Andreas Moser

I have no confidence in consumers either.

2. Paul Newman

The assumption is, I suppose, that if we do slip into recession, and I have always thought it was possible, people will turn to the Party who created the deficit which makes it so much worse. I am not convinced about that
The worse conditions are the less reason there is to continue to borrow and waste money on unionised public sector parasites and.. what about that £12 billion we throw away on international aid or the cots of uncontrolled EU immigration and so on.

I do not fear a general election on economic competence when the competition is Balls and Ed.

3. gastro george

How’s the tin foil hat, Paul?

And I hope you keep quiet about your views when you next talk to a nurse.

4. Leon Wolfson

@2 – Yes,. the far right will keep on banging about their pet lies, while demolishing the social infrastructure. Regardless. PLAN A!

5. Bob B

Try Paul Krugman in the NYT on Austerity Expansion:

The Path Not Taken
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/28/opinion/krugman-the-path-not-taken.html?_r=1&src=me&ref=general

6. Tom Pride

Osborne said he’d go for growth and he has.
Unemployment, VAT, inflation, crime.
Credit where credit’s due.

http://tompride.wordpress.com/2011/10/29/osborne-is-succeeding-in-his-plans-for-growth/

7. Leon Wolfson

@5 – Post-Nobel Syndrome is a terrible thing. Iceland’s population is that of a moderate sized UK city, and they have strong exports. Anyone with a poor balance of trade, on the other hand…


Reactions: Twitter, blogs
  1. Liberal Conspiracy

    Consumer confidence now points to a UK recession http://t.co/uFtXMUWi

  2. Nicola Chan

    Consumer confidence now points to a UK recession http://t.co/uFtXMUWi

  3. Alex Braithwaite

    Consumer confidence now points to a UK recession | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/oEJL5m92 via @libcon

  4. perfectpresents

    Consumer confidence now points to a UK recession | Liberal …: On both previous occasions – June 2008 and March… http://t.co/zAQK2fcN

  5. Janet Graham

    Consumer confidence now points to a UK recession http://t.co/uFtXMUWi

  6. Clive Burgess

    Consumer confidence now points to a UK recession http://t.co/uFtXMUWi

  7. Frances Coppola

    Consumer confidence now points to a UK recession | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/KUC9UPZI via @libcon

  8. Tabitha Stevens8

    Consumer confidence now points to a UK recession | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/KUC9UPZI via @libcon

  9. magicredpill

    Consumer confidence now points to a UK recession | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/KUC9UPZI via @libcon

  10. Brian Myrie

    RT @Frances_Coppola: Consumer confidence now points to a UK recession | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/CgeaG2LZ via @libcon

  11. Free andEasy

    Consumer confidence now points to a UK recession | Liberal … http://t.co/HFFF6bhv

  12. RecessionInfo 4 All

    Consumer confidence now points to a UK recession | Liberal …: October 29, 2011 at 10:10 am. If yesterday's GfK… http://t.co/1R9ByY6T





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