Polls: more people accept cuts than before
9:45 am - January 31st 2012
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Bad news for the left and the Labour party yesterday from YouGov:
YouGov’s Peter Kellner said that from the beginning of 2011 to 2012, public opinion changed as such:
* The proportion of people expecting their family’s finances to get worse has declined, from 64% to 53%
* The proportion expecting public spending cuts to have an impact on their own life has fallen from 72% to 62%
* The number accusing the Government of cutting spending too fast is down from 58% to 48%
* The proportion saying the cuts are necessary is up from 55 to 60%, while the number saying they are unnecessary is down from 34% to 26%.
Remember – these are figures over an entire year, not just recently. Though I’d like to see if they showed sudden movement during that period.
YouGov’s Peter Kellner says:
One big reason why it isn’t is that, despite the rise in unemployment, the Government is winning the argument about the necessity for spending cuts and who should be blamed for them. Compared with last January, there has been no material change in the numbers: almost twice as many voters still pin most blame on Labour rather than the Conservatives.
It can’t be denied that despite vigorous campaigning on the left about the cuts – the public still blame Labour for them (for ‘spending too much’) and as a result don’t want to punish the government for them.
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Sunny Hundal is editor of LC. Also: on Twitter, at Pickled Politics and Guardian CIF.
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Reader comments
I suppose as the cuts disproportionately hit the poor and the public sector the majority are only marginally affected and for those with a mortgage are actually better off because of the very low interest rates. This is probably reflected in the percentages accepting the cuts (as long as it doesnt affect them) and those opposing. The hysterical almost hatred of those on benefit, the disabled and the unemployed stirred up by the Tories, and not opposed by Labour, is a deliberate displacement which allows the tories to deflect the blame for the cuts onto those suffering them the worst.
I can see one optimistic explanation and one pessimistic explanation.
Optimistically: people have been pleasantly surprised that, for all the warnings from the Left, the cuts haven’t caused the world to collapse around their ears. This would reflect a failure to grasp that we’re only one year into a four-year program of cuts, and as such the worst effects are yet to be felt; we don’t *yet* know that we’re back in recession, crime isn’t *yet* skyrocketing, unemployment hasn’t *yet* hit three million, we aren’t *yet* reading news stories about malnourished, homeless children and disabled people found dead in their flats. As all that changes, the sense of pleasant surprise will wear off. (Did I say ‘optimistically’?)
Pessimistically: people are taking the ‘common sense’ view that the more the economy stagnates, the less we can afford to spend on luxuries like creating jobs and stimulating demand in order to, y’know, prevent economic stagnation.
Of course, the Tories are also doing a very good job of creating the impression that the cuts are all set to fall on a target group of evil scroungers rather than on users of public services more generally; and they can rely on the Left to help them out by similarly focusing on roughly the same target group, while feebly protesting, in the face of overwhelming opposition from the right-wing press, that sick and unemployed people are not, on the whole, evil scroungers, but just ordinary people who happen to have health problems and/or no job.
As an addendum to G.O.’s post, people may look across the channel and fear that not cutting leads inexorably to crisis without realising, probably and understandably because they have more pressing things to do than read through the minutiae of what’s going on, that the crisis across the channel is certainly being exacerbated by cuts and wrongheaded drives to “balance budgets”.
As we keep hearing, the cuts narrative is powerfully simple. It is wrong. But it is simple.
And the big risk here is that the economy will eventually steady itself and a large number of people will go “what a relief!” despite the charred remains of the UK’s economy, growth and employment capacity and its tax base continuing to smoke behind them – ie. effectively what happened in the 1980s.
“Remember – these are figures over an entire year, not just recently. Though I’d like to see if they showed sudden movement during that period.”
Sunny,
See the second graph in this post – http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/4527
Apart from a brief blip after the 2011 budget it was a pretty smooth trend through the year with no really sharp ups or downs.
Please do let me know when, where and how I can get questioned for a poll. Not me or anyone that I know has done a poll or anyone else that they know. Makes you wonder how fair and correct these polls are. How are people sellected. Is it targeted ? In addition to this polls are up and down like a yo-yo.
Mr Tomne,
Sign up here: http://labs.yougov.co.uk/
I keep getting sent these and always respond that I have no confidence in this administration, or their ability to do anything other than destroy the infrastructure of the country. Maybe my responses arent being counted…
How quickly will those numbers change if we slip into recession in the next quarter? Realistically there isn’t that big a difference between +0.1% growth and -0.1% growth but psychologically there is a huge difference.
Not too surprising.
Suspect a lot of families have ‘priced in’ austerity to their outlook, so have a degree of preparedness. Expect that to change if there is another sharp downturn – though they may blame that on Europe
I doubt public spending cuts ever were going to directly affect 72% of the population. Of the three big universal services, schools have been *relatively* protected, NHS cuts only have an impact when you need it, and police cuts haven’t fully filtered through
As for opinion on the rights and wrongs of the cuts – the Eurozone crisis has had a big impact there, and has spooked everyone. But that’s a very volatile situation, particularly in relation to Britain’s credit rating
Oh, and try not to sound too downhearted that people don’t sound too downhearted…
“The proportion of people expecting their family’s finances to get worse has declined, from 64% to 53%”
Yes, I can see how that is bad news for Labour. What we really want is an electorate which is pessimistic, scared, and fearful for the future. Then we can get them to embrace socialism. Right?
JustAnotherVoter: “Yes, I can see how that is bad news for Labour. What we really want is an electorate which is pessimistic, scared, and fearful for the future. Then we can get them to embrace socialism. Right?”
Well, perhaps we can at least get the electorate to oppose reducing a large group of mostly decent people to living in illegal hovels.
Sadly, politics isn’t just an ideological food fight and actually has real consequences for real people.
None of this is really a surprise. Labour failed to defend themselves at the outset and then reinforced the Tory argument through their long winded admission of ‘mistakes’. Worse than that, it appears ,with recent statements essentially supporting many of the cuts, they have existentially become Tories. I fear that Tory hegemony is here for quite a while( if indeed it ever went away). A Thatcher rerun ,but this time in black and white.
Reactions: Twitter, blogs
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Liberal Conspiracy
Polls: more people accept cuts than before http://t.co/M5dcJvYA
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Patron Press - #P2
#UK : Polls: more people accept cuts than before http://t.co/5HkYToqo
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leftlinks
Liberal Conspiracy – Polls: more people accept cuts than before http://t.co/kEka8YcG
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Dominic Ellison
Polls: more people accept #cuts than before http://t.co/7bxRVAC0
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Jason Brickley
Polls: more people accept cuts than before http://t.co/3pI4kPXM
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Shae Courtney
@YvetteCooperMP Yet the majority still blame your government, not the current, for the need for spending cuts. http://t.co/GmLYwTRU
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