IDS facing defeat at the next election


10:30 am - May 16th 2012

by Don Paskini    


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New data released yesterday gives a ward by ward breakdown of the London election results.

One very interesting finding is that, if the proposed boundary changes go through, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith faces an uphill battle to remain an MP.

The Boundary Commission is proposing a new ‘Chingford and Edmonton’ seat, bringing together six wards from Waltham Forest and three from Enfield.

In this month’s elections, Labour held an overwhelming lead over the Tories across this area – ahead by 46% to 30% on the London-wide list vote and 54% to 27% on the constituency list. Ken Livingstone led Boris Johnson more narrowly, by 45% to 42%.

These figures exclude postal votes, which would narrow Labour’s lead, but this is still a seat where Labour are stronger, and the Tories weaker, than the London average.

This will give Iain Duncan Smith, who has already been whining about the boundary changes, even more of an incentive to try and see the boundary changes amended or dropped entirely.

Alternatively, it would be no surprise if he decided to quit parliament at the next election, rather than waiting for the verdict of the voters on his hopeless performance as minister responsible for rising unemployment and poverty.

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About the author
Don Paskini is deputy-editor of LC. He also blogs at donpaskini. He is on twitter as @donpaskini
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Reader comments


1. nellslad

Strange how postal votes always seem to favour labour. Any correlation between patriarchal societies and postal voting?

2. Davo

Nellslad,

I think you have the wrong end of the stick, the OP stated that postal votes would narrow Labour’s lead, not increase it. Therefore favouring the tories.

3. Planeshift

“Strange how postal votes always seem to favour labour”

I love the evidence free assertion of foul play. The OP clearly states – “These figures exclude postal votes, which would narrow Labour’s lead”.

I’ve no idea who postal voting favours.There are ways in which you could see it advantaging either party – elderly voters being more likely to vote tory, but disabled people being more likely to vote labour for example. But either way – do you really think it’s a good idea to end postal voting and exclude people who physically would find it difficult to attend a polling station or people who have work commitments that make it inconvenient etc?

4. Oliver

@1. nellslad

Not saying that it’s not happened it (New) Labour’s favour, but it’s not as if the Tories didn’t try and rectify this themselves. A few ex-councillors and party officers did a bit of over-time filling out hundreds of forms trying to get Haroon Rashid elected in Bradford west back in 2005.

Postal voting is important and lots of people genuinely rely on it, but there’s lots of inherent flaws in the way we go about it.

5. Barrie J

Iain Duncan Smith’s wife has a ‘gastro pub’ in north Bucks, ate there once; it was hugely overhyped, very poor value for money and failed to deliver satisfaction at any level.
Pretty much the same as Mr Smith.
I’m sure the boundary situation will be fudged to keep the parasite’s snout in the trough

6. Lucidus

Don Paskini mentioned postal votes as, in a GLA election, these are aggregated at borough level. Therefore you can only examine the ward-level data for those who voted in person.

It is possible that party A appears to win a ward on the figures from those who voted at the polling station, but that party B actually won it because they predominated in the postal vote.

Looking at postal votes in Enfield, Boris got 8123 and Ken got 6022 in the first preference votes so the Conservatives had a slight edge there.

7. IDS Parole

Excellent Article.

One problem, Iain Duncan-Smith might not be at liberty to stand as an MP if he is at HMP ….

http://www.iainduncansmith.com

8. tigerdarwin

IDS defeated hope so

I would love , love it it he had to go down to the dole office and sign on.

It would make me so happy, no-one will want to employ the prat.

Mind you his is good at embellishing his CV, remember his degree

The guy left school at 14 and became a pen pusher in the army. I suspect he has never done a days work in his life

9. David Flisher

Never mind. He can vegetate with various senile ideas in the unreconstructed Lords.

10. Richard Gadsden

@David Flisher Yet another reason to support the reform of the Lords.

It’s not a perfect reform proposal. Of course it isn’t, it has Tories agreeing with it. But it’s better than what we have, and it will be easier to get minor changes through a reformed Lords without needing the Parliament Acts.


Reactions: Twitter, blogs
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  5. BevR

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  9. alexander (violette)

    Joy! Architect of govt's welfare cuts/lies – Iain Duncan Smith – likely to lose his seat in 2015 http://t.co/kh6kg0GL says @donpaskini

  10. Dan Crawford

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  11. Kyron Hodgetts

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  12. Jac Bastian

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  15. John COYB Syme

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  16. Chris Horner

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  19. Carole Ford

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  20. Andrea

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  26. BevR

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  27. Simon

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  28. Huw Davies

    IDS facing defeat at the next election – http://t.co/TMjZXOOj via @libcon – Could Chingford actually get a Labour MP? Surely not.

  29. Richard Alexandar

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  30. Anthony Adshead

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  33. IDS facing defeat at the next election… | Atos Victims Group News

    […] by Don Paskini      […]

  34. Logic Bomb

    Iain Duncan Smith facing defeat at next election, new voting results show. Will likely oppose boundary changes http://t.co/GUr1ZbPK

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  38. BevR

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