Nick Clegg isn’t hated by Britons – his problem is something else


by Leo Barasi    
8:55 am - September 24th 2012

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In the TV show The West Wing, the deputy chief of staff Josh Lyman once said, “I make it a point never to disagree with Labour blogger Hopi Sen when he’s right, Mr President.” (I may have paraphrased).

While I probably should never ignore such sage advice, this time I do disagree with Hopi. In particular I disagree with his assertion that the Lib Dems absolutely have to get rid of Nick Clegg because, as he puts it:

“PEOPLE HATE NICK CLEGG.

REALLY HATE HIM.

REALLY. REALLY. HATE. HIM.

They are not kidding about this and are not going to change their minds.”

But I think Hopi – and everyone else who makes the same point – are misdiagnosing the problem for Nick Clegg. Because the polls suggest, as politicians go, he really isn’t particularly unpopular.

According to Lord Ashcroft’s May poll (which I use as it has a huge base size), Clegg’s average score, in terms of “how positively or negatively” people feel, on a scale of -100 to +100, is -11.7. This is slightly worse than Cameron’s -1.7 and Miliband’s -2.4, but is roughly on a par with -15.8 for Osborne and -10.6 for Balls.

So on average, Clegg is relatively low though not bottom. But this doesn’t tell us about the spread of opinions.

If Hopi’s right that a meaningful number of people really (really) hate Clegg, we should see a high number giving him extremely negative scores – but we don’t. The proportion that give him scores in the bottom 10% (-80 or below) is pretty much the same as for Cameron and Miliband:

What’s more, the people who give him such negative scores are far more likely to be 2010 Labour voters than 2010 Lib Dem voters: compared with the 31% of 2010 Labour voters who rate Clegg so badly, only 13% of 2010 Lib Dem voters give him such low scores.

Comparing the 13% of 2010 Lib Dem voters who give him such a low score with the 2% of current Lib Dem voters who do the same, we can work out that, among those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 but now wouldn’t do so, about 22% give Nick Clegg a score of -80 of below. So even among current Labour voters and defecting Lib Dem voters (which are overlapping groups), less than a third appear to really dislike Clegg.

It’s far from a good performance, but not in itself a sign that Clegg couldn’t do all right in an election again.

So if he isn’t hated, what’s the issue for Clegg? There clearly is a problem that needs explaining given 76% of people think he’s doing badly.

His difficulty isn’t that he’s seen as loathsome, but that he’s seen as pathetic. These Populus numbers are now 16 months old, but I suspect still hold true:

So Clegg’s seen as out of his depth, weak and indecisive, yet also likeable and not arrogant.

If these are the drivers of his unpopularity, we may wonder about the consequences of a music video that shows Clegg’s humanity and humility – but also the fact that he misjudged what he’d be able to achieve in government, for which he felt he had to apologise.

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About the author
Leo is a regular contributor to Liberal Conspiracy. He manages communications for a small policy organisation, and writes about polling and info from public opinion surveys at Noise of the Crowd
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Story Filed Under: Blog ,Libdems ,Westminster


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Reader comments


1. Mike Killingworth

Clegg leads his Party. Balls and Osborne don’t lead theirs and probably never will.

2. Leroy Schwarz

From pathetic Clegg to lying David Laws & compromised Vince Cable, the filthy, dirty politics of appeasement run through the Lib Dems like the words ‘Tory Stoolpigeon’ through a stinking brown stick of rock. They can get rid of Clegg before the next election, but there are some types of shit that can’t be scraped off.

3. Chris

‘People’ don’t hate Clegg. Labour tribalists who think that somehow he could have magically changed the election result in their party’s favour hate Clegg.

4. Drew

Fair point, I personally think Nick Clegg is more likeable than many others in the political class.
The bitter compromises, weak mandate and sometimes naive ideologies within the cabinet have left me feeling mistrustful and anxious about UK democracy. Voters are clearly ambivalent towards politics in general.
The Lib Dems were perhaps seen as a worthy protest vote, maybe even a credible alternative to blue or red.
My fear, is that UKIP will now become the loose hinge upon which many dis-affected voters, will be hanging their swinging gate upon.

5. Chaise Guevara

Sen’s just fallen into the trap of assuming that your own view is “normal” and reflects the majority of people. Think it’s called mind projection fallacy.

Personally I think he’s fairly likeable, but a lame duck. Which is also a good reason to get rid of him. Regardless of whether or not he’s hated, he’s not good for the LD brand any more.

6. Roger Mexico

There’s actually more recent data on Clegg’s personal qualities. YouGov asked for yesterday’s Sunday Times

Thinking about Nick Clegg, do you think he is:

Decisive 14% v Indecisive 66%

Trustworthy 24% v Untrustworthy 58%

Strong 11% v Weak 75%

Likeable 42% v Dislikeable 38%

So no, people don’t hate Nick Clegg. We mustn’t confuse confuse the noise from a thousand Sally soundalikes that have descended on every remotely relevant CiF thread for the last two years with public opinion. But they feel something probably more damaging – mild contempt.

7. Mike Killingworth

[4] Drew, we are often told that as people struggled (and in some cases even died) to achieve universal suffrage it is therefore a civic duty to cast a vote. I agree with that.

But does that duty extend to voting for a party which is in a position to form a government? I’m far less sure – after all, people in the Six Counties of Northern Ireland can’t even if they want to. Indeed, I think the duty extends to expressing a view about the political class as a whole.

As for UKIP, the sooner we understand that race is a more primal source of political cleavage than class is, the sooner we shall be able to oppose racism effectively.

8. Sally

Clegg sold out his party for virtually nothing in return. He didn’t even get a referendum on lib dems preferred voting system. He had more power than he realised the day after the election. He played his cards abysmally. Was it incompetence, and naivety? Or is he a closest tory? We will probably never know.

What he has pissed away was the lib dems claim that they were somehow different from the other parties. Somehow more principled. That has been blown away in 2 years. Decades of cultivating that image has gone in a flash. And that should make lib Dem voters bloody angry.

9. Schmidt

Weak, indecisive, out of his depth, pathetic but not actually loathsome. What a wonderful achievement.

Of course he can be personally likeable but dangerously useless – Boris

10. Robert

Anyone seen Miliband and Ball’s for the past month.

11. the a&e charge nurse

Maybe people don’t hate Clegg, but they they do dislike what they they think he has come to represent – an opportunist with no clear ideology, or commitment to first principles (and no real public mandate come to think of it).

In other words the chance to be leader, albeit one with little influence transcended what might have better served the party or indeed the electorate – if you are in the wilderness for long enough I suppose you just have to grab whatever chances come you way?

12. Shatterface

So Clegg’s seen as out of his depth, weak and indecisive, yet also likeable and not arrogant.

So, like a Liberal then?

13. steveb

11

Agreed, Clegg has led his party into the wilderness, and as I have mentioned in previous threads, it’s an irony, because joining with the tories and supporting tory policies was what led the original Liberal Party into the wilderness. You’d think that the libdems would have known better, I suppose the idea of power can be too compelling for some.

14. Keith reeder

Oh I don’t HATE Clegg – he’s not worth the energy needed for hatred – but I have a deep and abiding contempt for the unprincipled, lying, power-hungry, spineless, Tory-enabling chancer.

His “problem” isn’t that he’s hated (which implies that he’s somehow the “victim” in all this) but that he’s a dishonest, self-serving piece of shit.

Basically, what 11 and 13 said…

15. MarkAustin

@8. Sally

I agree, he played a very strong hand very badly. The tories were desparate for power and would, I believe, have conceded much more.

However, remember on the key economic issues, he (and his inner circle) agree with the Cameron/Osborne line. That’s why he doesn’t seem too concerned about the ex-Labour votes he’s lost. IMHO his aim is to build a party of the centre right: economically conservatiobn and socially liberal.


Reactions: Twitter, blogs
  1. Kanika Vohra

    Nick Clegg isn't hated by #Britons – his problem is something else… http://t.co/B5dxF511 @libcon

  2. Maria Sobolewska

    Nick Clegg isn’t hated by Britons – his problem is something else | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/yYkFuBdR via @libcon

  3. sunny hundal

    This by @leobarasi is spot-on: 'Nick Clegg isn’t hated by Britons – his problem is something else' http://t.co/5eY6VChj

  4. PhilipHammond

    This by @leobarasi is spot-on: 'Nick Clegg isn’t hated by Britons – his problem is something else' http://t.co/5eY6VChj

  5. Jason Brickley

    Nick Clegg isn’t hated by Britons – his problem is something else http://t.co/xGL6INMu

  6. Peter Durant

    This by @leobarasi is spot-on: 'Nick Clegg isn’t hated by Britons – his problem is something else' http://t.co/5eY6VChj

  7. leftlinks

    Liberal Conspiracy – Nick Clegg isn’t hated by Britons – his problem is something else http://t.co/Tzd5yHXL

  8. Miljenko Williams

    Nick Clegg not liked 'cos people hate him or 'cos they think he's … well, not very good at his job? http://t.co/D7w6hcdl

  9. Stephen Lobsterbush

    Nick Clegg not liked 'cos people hate him or 'cos they think he's … well, not very good at his job? http://t.co/D7w6hcdl

  10. LV Schwarz

    This by @leobarasi is spot-on: 'Nick Clegg isn’t hated by Britons – his problem is something else' http://t.co/5eY6VChj

  11. SheffieldUncut

    This by @leobarasi is spot-on: 'Nick Clegg isn’t hated by Britons – his problem is something else' http://t.co/5eY6VChj

  12. Hopi Sen

    Glad to see @leobarasi's article (rightly) correcting me on Nick Clegg is now on @libcon – Do read it. http://t.co/M3W40MIJ

  13. Chris Paul

    Glad to see @leobarasi's article (rightly) correcting me on Nick Clegg is now on @libcon – Do read it. http://t.co/M3W40MIJ

  14. Paul Nettleton

    This by @leobarasi is spot-on: 'Nick Clegg isn’t hated by Britons – his problem is something else' http://t.co/5eY6VChj

  15. sunny hundal

    This, by @leobarasi, explains why Clegg's sorry video won't work: people will still think he's in way over his head http://t.co/5eY6VChj

  16. Foxy52

    This, by @leobarasi, explains why Clegg's sorry video won't work: people will still think he's in way over his head http://t.co/5eY6VChj

  17. ‘Clegg has at least another year to turn things around’ | Liberal Conspiracy

    [...] Barasi pointed out yesterday that most people don’t hate Clegg (outside the Twitterati) but think he is incompetent and is in way over his head. I think that is [...]

  18. Thomas Byrne

    Nick Cleggs problem is ineptitude, not dishonesty. http://t.co/Jfag4xGJ





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