Monthly Archives: October 2012

Open thread: who will win the US elections?

Less than one week to go til the US elections, so let’s have an open thread about what you think is going to happen. Will Sunny’s campaigning help power Obama to re-election, or will Mitt Romney and his billionaire backers prevail? Predictions can be as general or specific as you would like, and the person who gets closest will have the glory of being the inaugural Liberal Conspiracy election prediction winner!

For all the latest news about the election, I read Five Thirty Eight and Daily Kos Elections. Any other recommendations gratefully received…

Five reasons why the UK’s growth figures still point to a weak recovery

GDP growth of 1% in the third quarter is obviously good news but yesterday’s figures don’t mean that the crisis is over. Not by a long way.

First, we should consider the special factors that have boosted growth over the summer – as ITV’s Richard Edgar has already pointed out – Olympic ticket sales added 0.2% to growth and the timings of Bank Holidays over the Jubilee may have added around 0.5%.

Strip these out and we have underlying growth around of around 0.3% over the quarter – very close to NIESR’s estimate of 0.2/0.3%. Unless growth accelerates in the next two or three quarters then the OBR’s most recent estimates for growth of 2.0% in 2013 looks unattainable.

Second, we need to look at the longer term picture rather than concentrating on one quarter’s figures. Over the past year GDP has been flat, today’s numbers take us back to where we were last year. There has been almost no growth over the past two years – the longer term picture then is of an economy that is stagnant rather than growing.

Third, we need to consider the makeup of growth. Whilst GDP is flat over the past year that hides a lot of variation at the sector level, over the same period the service sector has grown by 1.3%, the production sector has fallen by 1.3% and construction output has collapsed by 10.8%. This raises serious questions about the extent of ‘rebalancing’ which we are achieving.

Fourth, the UK is well behind where it was expected to be. The economy has grown by just 0.6% since the Spending Review of October 2010, compared to an OBR forecast of 4.6%. During the same period both the US and Germany have grown by over 3.0%. We’re behind our peers and behind where we expected to be.

Finally, we still have a long way to go. GDP remains over 3% below its 2008 peak. On current, possibly optimistic OBR forecasts, it’ll be 2014 before we regain our pre-recession levels of GDP.

So far in 2012, the economy has grown by 0.2%. Even if GDP grew by another 1% in Q4 (very unlikely without the temporary boosts we got over the summer), overall growth would be just 1.2% for the year. By any stretch that would be a pretty abysmal performance.

The figures are good news but they don’t change the fundamental picture – our economy is much weaker than it should be and the government isn’t doing enough to support growth and, as I argued earlier this week, we are set for a weak recovery.

A4e worse than useless, according to leaked figures

Channel 4 News yesterday reported on the performance of welfare to work company A4e, based on performance figures from their first year of a lucrative government contract. The figures reveal quite how atrociously the company has performed.

A4e managed to help 3,400 out of more than 93,000. This is a success rate of under 4%. This is even more pathetic when as, according to the government’s analysis, around 5% of people referred to the Work Programme would have found and sustained work with no government support over the time period covered. In other words, A4e provided a ‘service’ which had worse outcomes than if they had done nothing at all. In one office in South London, only eight people were supported to find sustainable work over a nine month period.

In total, A4E has received £45,893,535 from DWP, mostly from the initial attachment fees. The cost to the taxpayer per job outcome so far is £13,498.

This is an indictment of the government’s Work Programme and the process which led to A4e being selected to receive massive contracts.

This isn’t just a failing on the part of the present government and of A4e, however. Given their pitiful performance, and the past evidence of fraud and criminal activity, A4e should have been found out years ago. Yet during Labour’s time in office, they were able to secure contract after contract, and rake in millions to deliver services where the outcomes required were very much less demanding than those required by the Work Programme. This waste of public money is an absolute scandal and one which must never happen again.

Guido Fawkes howler on Tom Watson allegations

A particularly crass howler was committed yesterday by the rabble at the Guido Fawkes blog, so eager have they been to
lay into Labour MP for West Bromwich East Tom Watson.

Watson intervened at Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs) on the subject of alleged paedophile activity. His point was that, on the fringes of a known paedophile ring which involved a man called Peter Righton, there was another child abuser who “boasted of a key aide to a former Prime Minister who could help get hold of indecent images of children”. He did not name the aide.

The perpetually thirsty Paul Staines, always on the lookout for anything that might enable him to put one over on Watson, got his newly appointed teaboy Alex Wickham to cobble together a post alleging that Watson’s news was not new, and had been (a) already covered in the Murdoch Sunday Times last weekend, and had (b) been exposed by a former Tory MP, Edwina Currie.

There was only one problem with this: it was bollocks. Watson was way ahead of the Fawkes folks

I am not naming the person for obvious reasons but for clarity it is not former MP, Peter Morrison. This afternoon my office has been bombarded with calls regarding Morrison, I think because he was named by Edwina Currie at the weekend as having inappropriate sexual relations with teenage boys.

So not only is the Fawkes blog wrong (again), they don’t even get a name check from Tom Watson, although they are more than likely the source of at least some of those calls his office has been getting.

We can’t reverse growing inequality without addressing Thatcherism

A contradiction lies at the heart of the contemporary political consensus – on the one hand, inequality is increasingly recognised as a serious problem; on the other, Mrs Thatcher’s legacy is seen as a precious inheritance.

She reversed Britain’s decline, the commonly accepted wisdom goes, and nothing must be done to reverse that. The trouble is that the inequality is, in large measure, the result of those policies.

This is highlighted by some new statistics, released yesterday by the Office for National Statistics. One of my favourite annual ONS publications is called the Effect of Taxes and Benefits on Household Income.

This is vital for seeing how the tax/benefit system and public services reduce inequality and which taxes, benefits and services are most effective. As I’ve noted before, original income is much more unequal than “final” income (after taking taxes, benefits and the value of services into account.)

The release presents these figures going back to 1977. There’s a lot to take in, but one of the first points I’ve picked up is how inequality has changed over time.

The table below looks at the ratio of the final income of the richest tenth (“decile”) of the population to that of the poorest tenth, that is, how unequal we are after everything we do to redistribute income is taken into account:

A couple of points jumped out at me. One is that the last government brought down this ratio slightly; the other is that the biggest change was the increase between 1984 and 1991 – it really does look like a ‘step change’.

This is the period when tax and benefit rates and spending on services were changed radically. It’s the period of Geoffrey Howe’s and Nigel Lawson’s Budgets.

If we want to reduce inequality we are going to have to take another look at the ‘achievements’ of Thatcherism.

How much GDP growth would be ‘half-decent’?

The UK’s quarterly GDP figures are out today. They have been negative for the few quarters – hence we are in a double-dip recession.

So what would be ‘half-decent’ for today? Tim Montgomorie at ConHome says a 0.4% rise in GDP would be half-decent.

I find this extraordinary. It’s like saying that just because you’ve been shot in the face repeatedly, a stab in the face instead is welcome.

The Tories will jump on any growth in GDP figures as positive. Here’s why this is rubbish.

The Q3 figures will be artificially inflated:
- the bounce back from the extra bank holiday in the previous quarter (which reduced growth by approx 0.5%)
- Olympic ticket sales (expected to add around 0.2%).

Plus – since around +0.6% would be trend growth (hat-tip @graemewearden), 1.3% would be ‘half-decent’.

Less than that and it means our economy is still growing very slowly overall.

Nadine Dorries Granted Debate On Abortion Limit

 

Conservative MP Nadine Dorries has been granted a 90 minute debate on reducing the abortion limit from 24 to 20 weeks.

The news comes on the same day that feminist activists marched on Parliament calling for women’s needs and concerns to be more central to government policymaking- including more parliamentary support for abortion rights. Thirteen out of the current sixteen conservative members of cabinet voted for a reduction in the upper limit when the issue was last debated in Parliament in 2008.

Health Minister Jeremy Hunt caused outrage earlier this month when he voiced support for halving the abortion limit to twelve weeks. Equalities Minister Maria Miller, Theresa May and David Cameron have all said that they would support a small reduction to the limit- although Cameron insisted at the time that there were no plans for a change in legislation.

Figures released earlier this week by the Department of Health have shown a consistent year-on-year reduction in the number of abortions taking place after thirteen weeks. In 2011 16,755 abortions were performed after 13 weeks- down from 18,990 in 2008. Labour MP Diane Abbott, who supports the current 24 week limit, said “It’s becoming clear that Jeremy Hunt’s wild attack on British women’s right to choose was not based on the figures, the medical evidence, or on any real understanding of women’s lives,”

“Unfortunately, what Jeremy Hunt has done is unlock the door to the right-wing of the Tory party to begin a campaign in parliament to reduce the time limits, and also offer a supporting hand to anti-choice campaigners who protest, shout, and host vigils outside clinics, as women enter.”

Clare Murphy, Director of External Affairs at the British Pregnancy Advisory Service, argued if Dorries were “pro-woman” she ought to focus on access to contraception, improving access to early abortion and protesting cuts to midwives.

“There is no need to revisit this issue: but the tragedy is that the energy spent discussing it detracts time and attention from genuine problems in women’s reproductive healthcare.”

The debate will take place on the 31st October.

When Google, Apple and Amazon own everything, how will we stop them?

A couple of days a go, my friend Linn sent me an e-mail, being very frustrated: Amazon just closed her account and wiped her Kindle. Without notice. Without explanation. This is DRM at it’s worst.

I cannot verify whether the e-mail exchange actually happened or whether both parties are being honest, but it is instructive of the trouble with digitally “owning” something.

In digital form, in extremis, you own very little of what you think you own. A lot of the time you are merely leasing the material. So long as nothing goes wrong, and so long as you stay onside with the usually un-burdensome terms and conditions nobody will notice.

For example, most music, films and books bought online are in fact leased. You have full use rights of the material you purchase but you don’t own it, and your use rights can be revoked if you transgress the terms and conditions nobody reads.

Most people don’t know this, and this is why people don’t mind. However, as seen at the link at the top of this page, when you break, or are thought to have broken, the terms and conditions of the lease it can be cancelled and all the content you thought you owned will vanish.

This points to one reason people pirate material. Pirated material is material you own, unlike most of that provided commercially. Paradoxically, it is in the real world that ownership allows anonymity.

In reality, we are all very traceable on the internet. Each click or digital transaction involves electronic data passing between two known, verifiable and unique IP addresses.

When you buy something in a shop in the real world you usually don’t know where the other guy lives, but on the internet you know just where their computer “lives.” That means if you annoy the person from which you bought a game, song, book or movie they can slip in and silently take what you bought.

The internet and tech sector is growing much more quickly than the rest of the economy. That means that digital goods are becoming a bigger part of what we own and these problems are multiplying.

As the digital world expands more and more of the valuable things you own could end up being leased and power will pass from the state and from individuals to private companies.

The European Robinhood Tax overcomes a major hurdle

Yesterday the European Commission gave the green light to the adoption of a Financial Transactions Tax (FTT) by 10 European countries, bringing a Robin Hood Tax that could raise €37bn a year one step closer.

The Commission’s decision means that the proposal is legal under EU law, and meets the criteria for a process known as the Enhanced Co-operation Procedure (ECP) where a subset of EU member states want to do something where unanimity cannot be achieved.

The Tax Commissioner, Algirdas Semeta, said:

“in difficult times, fairness matters. And the FTT is the epitome of a fair tax. It will also help to deter the casino-type trading we’ve seen too much of, and re-focus the financial sector more on supporting the real economy.”

The next step is for the Finance Ministers’ meeting (ECOFIN) on 13 November, to agree. It’s still possible that other countries could join in, and there is still scope to improve the measure originally proposed by the Commission in September 2011 (for example to prevent avoidance by adopting the same principle that underpins the UK’s stamp duty on shares).

There’s an excellent summary of what was decided today, and what the next steps are.

Alternatively, it is also still possible for a blocking minority to be mobilised to prevent the coalition of the willing proceeding – but so far governments like the UK seem willing to let the measure go through as long as they don’t have to join (there’s a curiously balanced approach to the issue even in the comments on this dead straight ConHome blog by Iain Anderson.)

The 10 countries which have already written to the Commission indicating that they want to proceed is Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain, including four of the five biggest economies in the EU: no prizes for guessing which one is the odd one out! Estonia, which had been expected to sign up, could well still do so, and unions and campaigners will be lobbying several other governments to join in.

Not surprisingly, the Robin Hood Tax campaign are delighted.