One of the OBR forecasts the Chancellor didn’t boast about this afternoon concerned unemployment.

Recently, the labour market has been doing a lot better than expected, given the lousy growth performance, and unemployment has been coming down, but the Office for Budget Responsibility expects this to change.

Their latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook shows unemployment on the ILO measure and the claimant count higher in 2013 than this year. In 2014, they expect ILO unemployment to stay steady and the claimant count to rise again:

The OBR expect unemployment to come down again in 2015 (but that is when they expect all good things to begin).

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Richard is an regular contributor. He is the TUC’s Senior Policy Officer covering social security, tax credits and labour market issues.
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