Good advice, Labour have had their fingers burnt in the past by mirroring tory policy, they still need to win back the trust of their traditional supporters, postulating about the EU is not the way to do it.

Richard Carey.

There was no Lisbon Treaty in 2005, it hadn’t even been conceived then. Labour promised a referendum on a proposed EU Constitution, but that was dead in the water within a month of the election, because two countries had already rejected it.

The only person to offer a referendum on Lisbon – and a “cast iron” one at that – was Cameron, but as with so many of his promises (especially “no top down reorganisation of the NHS”), he reneged on it.

Categorize it as nothing more than an attempt by Cameron to appease the raving right of his party – and treat with disdain a move that creates such uncertainty just to win a party political game.

If however there is an in-out referendum socialists cannot possibly vote positively for neo-liberal principles even before whatever renegotiations Cameron is able to secure such as getting rid of Human Rights and Working Time Directives.

Timing.

There is going to a referendum anyway, and this has been obvious for at least 4 years. Any political party opposed to one simply looks shady and unwilling to trust the people. Think how stupid westminister’s attempts to derail the scottish referendum have been (ironically, once they stopped doing this, support for the union went up)

Currently about 25% of the public have taken a hardline stance on either side of the EU question. About 50% undecided. Which is a massive amount to play for. Ironically Cameron’s stance of ‘in europe but with a reformed relationship’ is probably the mainstream position.

Delay, dither and deny the public a referndum and euro-scepticism gets more popular, particualrly with farage playing an anti-politics card and given free reign in the media. If Milliband comes out and says “our relationship with europe is crucial to the economy. Lets sort the issue out for good so everyone knows where they stand” he wins points from all sides for being open and democratic. He even looks statesmen like for doing something people are aware he probably wouldn’t like to do.

But the points go to the person who is first on this. Cameron has almost go there, but stating “in a while” meant he has missed the open goal.

As things stand, the conservative party has no chance in the next election. A string of would be tory prime ministers have proved beyond doubt that an anti-europe stance kills your chances of being elected in Britain (Michael Foot already showed them that, but they weren’t paying attention).

Cameron on the other hand will be u-turning. He doesn’t want out of Europe, he’d be put in an extremely tough place of both u-turning to provide it and then either remaining silent or campaigning to stay in the EU so that negotiations on the future of the EU can take place, or he can fight *against* an EU referendum.

I’m not sure how Cameron wins, except if you believe it’s a foregone conclusion that a “Stay in the EU” camp can’t win when they have nullified one, nay…two, of the “leave EU’s” biggest arguments…the first that’ll be that the EU is not working with Britain to change how it works, it’s time to leave…and the second is that they’ll no longer be able to pretend that the “pro-EU” camp are trying to deny people their say on Europe because it was the pro-EU camp that brought the date forward!

ROFL.

Why would it put them in crisis mode? Cameron would accuse Labour and Libdems of u-turning but then offer a bill on a referendum, and win it, returning him to power as the strong leader who argued for Britain’s interests.

While Cameron is leader, the only person who can win (politically) from a referendum before or at 2015 is Cameron himself.

2) The Tories are not infighting on this issue, they are…aside from a few voices…in compromise mode. Backbenchers seem happy with the “promise” of an EU referendum in 2017, and Cameron will no doubt be happy that he will probably be able to support it from opposition (or whoever his successor is), or reneg on that promise if still in power.

What would keep them infighting? Give the Tory Right a reason to cause the executive problems. Go in and say you want a referendum before (or on) the day of the next General Election. No promises that can be broken, no waiting around in uncertainty. Decide now if we’re going to keep engaged or not. The backbenchers will love it, they know they could pass that bill with Labour support easily, and it would truly put the Tories in to crisis mode.

Of course you’re right, Ed’s positioning has largely taken this option off the table, it feels like an own goal by Labour and the Lib Dems tbh.