Why Ukraine is past the point of no return with Russia, and we have to get involved
4:16 pm - April 15th 2014
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It feels like the calm before the coming storm. The situation in Ukraine is likely to escalate very quickly, and yet there seems to be worrying lack of urgency about it everywhere.
Three things happened over the last week that have set the stage.
1) Rather than going home after taking over Crimea, Russia started amassing troops on the Ukranian border. It also started directing its people inside Ukraine to take over various towns and cities in the east of the country. There are obvious examples of this: well-armed and well-trained ‘militias’ have sprung up everywhere; the newly appointed police chief in Horlivka admitted to being a lieutenant colonel in the Russian army.
2) In response, Ukraine said it would launch a military operation to take back its own territory unless the militias left peacefully by Monday morning. Fair enough: any government would want to fight back against armed (and foreign) militias who have taken over its towns without any democratic mandate.
3) The deadline passed and the Ukrainian govt did nothing. Then, it asked for UN peacekeeping forces to maintain order. Today, the Ukranian govt belatedly launched military operations, but there are reports that some troops in the east are defecting to the pro-Russian side. Meanwhile, the Ukranian economy is near collapse.
The key problem here is that Ukraine is too weak against Russia. If Ukraine gets bogged down in a long battle against pro-Russian forces in the east, it would only hasten a collapse of its economy.
Putin is betting that the Ukranian economy collapses before his does, which would trigger a crisis for the EU and force them to agree to his demands.
This is why we have to get involved now rather than later. This could mean all out trade sanctions, UN peacekeeping forces or NATO forces. If Ukraine collapses then Europe will feel the full force and force us to agree to Putin’s demands. It would be the worst crisis for Nato and the EU in a generation.
Hoping that Russia will back off from strong words is foolish – Putin’s only hope now is that Ukraine goes down before him. And he’s doing his utmost to make that happen.
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Sunny Hundal is editor of LC. Also: on Twitter, at Pickled Politics and Guardian CIF.
· Other posts by Sunny Hundal
Story Filed Under: Blog ,Europe ,Foreign affairs
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Reader comments
You want to send NATO troops to fight Russia/Russian proxies in Ukraine? What are you, crazy? Personally, I’d rather try and go another few years before we destroy Europe in a WWIII styleconflagration
I think Putin is weak in his own country, which is why this works for him. If anyone objects he can accuse them of being unpatriotic, or deny any involvement as Russia isn’t openly involved.
We have to stand up to him now, or this is not going to stop. Moldova next.
There would more likely be a coup on Moscow if we engaged them, than if we stood back and did nothing.
Fundamentally, Putin needs to believe that Western leaders (esp. Obama) have the capacity to behave as recklessly and irrationally as he does. That’s why perversely, people like Bush, Nixon and Reagan are quite good in these kinds of crises. Obama’s problem is that he’s too considered and therefore predictable. Starting to move US fleet out of Naples towards the Black sea would be send clear message he’s taking this v. seriously and capable of anything.
Secondly, we need to start contingency planning for a full gas boycott. Doing so would cause real economic damage to Russia within months. Before mooting it, would look for Norwegian and Saudi assurances that they were able to compensate production, which should be possible during Spring/Summer. Don’t need to go through with it at this stage, but both we and the Russians need to be sure that Europe is capable of turning off the taps.
Thirdly, need to increase logistical and intel support to Ukrainian military, so they know who they’re dealing with, how many etc. Would semi-openly arm them if needed- compared to Syria, the costs of doing so are quite small.
Finally, a freeze on assets held by key Putin allies in London – not a cost-free decision, but evidence is that Putin’s personal control isn’t yet total- still relies on keeping his cadre happy.
Sunny, you’re well off the mark here.
Why should we start demanding our capitalist states mobilise troops to defend another capitalist nation state – one with an openly fascist government, that is a puppet of the Troika and the US? How would that benefit anyone?
Moreover, as even the UK media recognise, this is not a ‘straightforward’ situation of Russia using undercover troops to invade Ukraine. There is popular support for the autonomy of Eastern Ukraine. And part of this is about the crisis of authority of the Kiev government.
Is it the role of the UK Left to call for the repression of dissent in Ukraine and the shoring up – by force – of a capitalist government that includes fasicsts? No. Clearly it is not. Could this be successful, anyway? No, probably not.
What should the left-wing line be, then? From here in the UK it is hard to really grasp the complex play of forces in the Ukraine. But, we do understand – to some degree – the UK state’s role in global, imperialist capitalism. And we should fight out battles first. So:
* No to Troika restructuring of the Ukraine.
* No to the UK/EU supporting an openly fascist government.
* No to the UK supporting military intervention in Ukraine.
That is our line.
Sunny, who is this `we’ and `us’. Imperialism operates in its own interests not ours.
Beside that I agree with your concerns. The domestically weak Putin imperialist kleptocracy is most definitely formenting civil war in Ukraine Bosnia style and will probably not rest until Kiev is flatter than Aleppo or Grozny. Putin is a well-established international war criminal. On the other hand the West I do not think would be to disappointed to see Russia bogged down in an unwinnable war in Ukraine as it was in Iraq. It would keep Putin stable but occupied and make Russia even more dependent on Western financial markets to pay for it.
The Ukrainian Revolution can rely only on its own strength and the support of workers and democratically-minded folks around the world. It will need to take a hard line against Putin’s Ukrainian-Russian irregular fascist militias whilst developing a policy that can unify East and West Ukraine under a revolutionary anti-gangster capitalist democracy. Let the neo-Stalinists of the StWC put their puny weight behind Putin and his vile propaganda and the AWL create illusions in Western imperialism’s bogus concern for national democratic revolutions whilst it justifies the daily annexation of Palestine. We will remain on the side of the workers and the popular democratic masses always.
With the people of Ukraine against imperialism East or West;
With the Russian anti-war movement;
With the international revolutionary masses.
BenW: come on fess up you are William Hauge aren’t you? You and c.witter look as opposed as heads and tails but you are both just a side of the same coin and in that sense identical. One thinks Western hegemony will create the conditions for peace whilst the other supports counter-hegemonic forces in struggle with the West as the road to peace. Both look to imperialism one way or another to solve the world’s problems. Neither are anything to do with the global struggle of the masses for socialism.
There are neo-Cons in the West who would love to see America confront Russia directly in the Ukraine and they don’t care how many Ukrainians die as a result but the mainstream opinion is like that of the contributors above: a few sanctions and hope that Putin gets bogged down killing Ukrainians while they carry on screwing their own populations.
@David Ellis:
I don’t see how the position I outline is contiguous with BenW’s, unless you smudge my text till only a blurred outline can be discerned, appearing to read: “let Putin alone”. I do not accept your characterisation of my position – that I ‘support counter-hegemonic forces in struggle with the West as the road to peace’ – particularly not if I am correct in inferring that you think I ‘side’ with the protesters/pro-russian forces/secessionists, or whatever; or, worse, with Putin.
My position is not about taking sides, nor even about the ‘road to peace’. Rather, it is about refusing to choose between competing imperialist powers. It is also about having the humility to fight our own battles first – that is, against neoliberal capitalism; and viewing the struggles in Ukraine through the lens of our struggle, rather through one or another set of abstractions.
Very disappointed. Firstly, you haven’t even questioned what would happen if Russia did take over parts of Ukraine if local people vote for it. Is it really our business to tell Ukranians what they should be doing? Secondly, you there is absolutely nothing here about the legitimacy of the current government in Ukraine. Let’s not forget The elected government was brought down by the very iffy mob encouraged by opposition politicians and foreign governments. Thirdly, amongs the general public in Europe … There is no appetite foe yet another war. can we afford it?
Putting aside all the talk of sanctions and ineffible punishments and so on, and leaving the various legal and moral considerations to swing: would you be willing to risk serious injury for the integrity of Ukraine’s borders, Sunny?
Because it looks to me like the Ukrainian army isn’t. I suggest that this tells us things.
Why do we have to get involved? We already are involved. This is Yinon Zionism applied to the old Soviet empire? You guys want WW3? Don’t get involved!
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