Report: New immigration policy will hurt growth
7:30 pm - June 14th 2010
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The Office for Budget Responsibility’s report today had another stark message for Prime Minister David Cameron: his attempts to restrict immigration into the UK would have a huge impact on our economic growth.
It points out that immigration policy will also lead to a long-term decline in the UK’s economic potential.
This key paragraph in the report states:
Our estimate is that trend output will grow at 2.35 per cent over the next three years, slowing to 2.1 per cent from 2014 on as demographic changes reduce the growth of the potential labour supply.
The FT’s Alex Barker says this indicates Cameron’s immigration policy ‘will fail’. He also thinks Cameron will simply fail in restriction immigration anyway.
The implication is to maintain a 2.75 per cent long term growth, either the British birth rate needs to rise significantly (it’s predicted to fall) or immigration levels need to run at the same pace as when Britain opened its doors to Poland.
It’s an economic challenge that runs against the grain of the political debate these days. Most folk in Westminster are only happy to talk about restricting the borders, rather attracting more foreign workers.
The OBR report states that even though immigration won’t fall as much as Cameron wants, it will still impact the UK’s growth prospects.
“Makes you wonder what the additional hit to trend growth would be if Cameron did manage to bring net migration down to under 100,000,” Alex Barker asks.
And that is before news that business confidence was down because the Treasury keeps playing down the economy.
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Sunny Hundal is editor of LC. Also: on Twitter, at Pickled Politics and Guardian CIF.
· Other posts by Sunny Hundal
Story Filed Under: News
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Reader comments
Of course this also impacts on reducing the debt burden of the UK.
Want to reduce the debt you leave to your children? Well there’s millions of people happy to take a slice of it off their hands.
A growing population is far better positioned to handle debt than one not growing.
Again, the Tories show they aren’t serious about debt.
Goodish news, but not good enough. Human lust for ever more, then more and more, and then, more, is the reason for the relentless destruction of the biosphere. Either you pander to the bottomless human lust for having more, or you care about the environment. You can’t have it both ways. Economic growth is about having more. Caring for the environment entails having less. By the way, happy International Year of Biodiversity, everyone! Not that denizens of Liberal Conspiracy would give a toss about the biosphere. Let’s celebrate having less for a change.
With the Irish economy taking a raincheck on growth, there’ll be a plentiful supply of young, highly-motivated and well-educated labour close at hand.
Ultimately growth is not sustainable. DavidHurry
The tories really don’t care about debt but also we can see that David Cameron is being racist.
i mean why should people in other countries be blocked out only. People from the Phillipines have given us a much better health caqre servic for example. I do agree that british citizen should get priority though.
Another factor is that some people (not all people) from inside the EU don’t benefit the country at all. I have seen them steal, hurt, and commit various crimes but do the TOries care. I don’t think so!!!!
Reactions: Twitter, blogs
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Kelly
RT @KaschWilder: David Cameron's immigration policy destroyed.. by his own Government http://bit.ly/cSSJFy
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Malcolm Evison
RT @libcon: Report says Cameron's attack on immigration will lower UK growth http://bit.ly/cSSJFy
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Nick Warren
RT @sunny_hundal: RT @libcon: Report says Cameron's attack on immigration will lower UK growth http://bit.ly/cSSJFy
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Immigration Tips
Report: New immigration policy will hurt growth | Liberal Conspiracy: The Office for Budget Responsibility's repor… http://bit.ly/bplblV
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Nick Panayotopoulos
RT @KaschWilder David Cameron's #immigration policy destroyed.. by his own Government http://bit.ly/cSSJFy
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Ryan Bestford
Report: New immigration policy will hurt growth – http://bit.ly/90LURK (via @LibCon)
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ALFIE SMITH
RT @libcon Report says Cameron’s attack on immigration will lower UK growth http://bit.ly/c3VIS1
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law
"Report: New immigration policy will hurt growth | Liberal Conspiracy" http://bit.ly/9QWClR #immigration
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Liberal Conspiracy
Report says Cameron's attack on immigration will lower UK growth http://bit.ly/cSSJFy
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Ben Cooper
RT @libcon: Report says Cameron's attack on immigration will lower UK growth http://bit.ly/cSSJFy
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Colin Heinink
RT @libcon: Report says Cameron's attack on immigration will lower UK growth http://bit.ly/cSSJFy
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Adam White
RT @BenCooper86: RT @libcon: Report says Cameron's attack on immigration will lower UK growth http://bit.ly/cSSJFy
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Kasch Wilder
David Cameron's immigration policy destroyed.. by his own Government http://bit.ly/cSSJFy
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sunny hundal
RT @libcon: Report says Cameron's attack on immigration will lower UK growth http://bit.ly/cSSJFy
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Palmer 1984
RT @libcon: Report says Cameron's attack on immigration will lower UK growth http://bit.ly/cSSJFy
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Jackie
RT @sunny_hundal: RT @libcon: Report says Cameron's attack on immigration will lower UK growth http://bit.ly/cSSJFy
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Catherine Neilan
RT @libcon Report says Cameron’s attack on immigration will lower UK growth http://bit.ly/c3VIS1
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Val Stevenson
RT @CatNeilan: RT @libcon Report says Cameron’s attack on immigration will lower UK growth http://bit.ly/c3VIS1
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