Poll of polls: Libdems fall to lowest ever vote


by Newswire    
8:45 am - January 5th 2011

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Support for the Liberal Democrats has slumped to its lowest level since the party was formed in 1988, according to The Independent’s “poll of polls”.

Nick Clegg is now the most unpopular third party leader since David Owen led the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in 1989. The Liberal Democrats’ 11 per cent rating in the first poll of polls since last May’s election highlights the dramatic slide in their fortunes since they entered the Coalition with the Conservatives.

The 57 Liberal Democrat MPs would be reduced to a rump of just 15 at the next election if this level of support were to be repeated then.

Labour is now on 40 per cent and the Tories on 38 per cent, giving Labour an overall majority of 14, according to the weighted average of the regular surveys by ComRes, ICM, Ipsos MORI and YouGov.

John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who compiled the figures, said that the costs and benefits of the Coalition had been distributed very unevenly between the two parties in it.

…. more at The Independent

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Reader comments


1. Galen10

It couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of people…. still, at least it should save them some money when it comes to booking venues for future party conferences; village halls shouldn’t cost much ;)

2. Tim J

There’s way to go yet. In June 1990, the Lib Dems were polling 5%. In the election two years later they still managed 18%…

http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/pdfs/1990_june_guardian_june_poll.pdf

Oh, and it’s not a vote they’ve fallen to, it’s an opinion poll rating taken more than four years before the likely date of the next election. Interesting and amusing, but not all that useful.

3. George W Potter

Wrong. The LDs have NOT hit a record low.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2932

4. Galen10

@3

Ah.. not to worry, I’m sure at the current rate you’ll be plumbing those single figure depths in no time George!

5. sally

Lie Dems in meltdown and their supporters are clueless.

Bit like their leader.

6. Planeshift

Its irrelevant anyway. Lib dems derrive strength and influence through hung parliaments not poll results. Consider these results (in terms of seats won):

Scenario 1: Lab 40%, Con 40% Lib Dem 20%

Scenario 2: Lab 45% Con 45% Lib Dem 10%

In each of these scenarios the lib dems can get stuff through by forming a coalition. Now consider this scenario:

Lab 54% Con 23% Lib Dem 23%

In this scenario the lib dems can’t do anything because Lab has a majority.

So the lesson here is Lib dems can’t get policies through as a result of winning seats (apart from the unlikely scenario of winning outright). But they can by being a partner with others. So they achieve more by being the partner for 5 years – even if it costs them half their seats and takes them 20 years to recover – than they can through 25 years of slow growth in opposition in a system designed to keep small parties small.

7. George W Potter

@4 I refer you to @2 :)

8. Galen10

@ 7

Keep telling yourself things can only get better….. it might even come true; meanwhile in the real world, come back and tell us how bright things look after the O&S bye-election, the local and Celtic elections, and the AV vote.

9. BenM

@TimJ

There’s way to go yet. In June 1990, the Lib Dems were polling 5%. In the election two years later they still managed 18%…

There’s a major fly in the ointment of this line of thinking.

The Lib Dems are now in government.

So the impact of an election being called and this third party no one ever hears anything about suddenly getting loads of airtime is going to be much, much weaker.

10. Chervil

“it’s not a vote they’ve fallen to, it’s an opinion poll rating taken more than four years before the likely date of the next election.”

I admire your ambition, but trying to explain democracy to the comrades is a waste of time.

Just look at their leadership ‘election’.

11. Chervil

“So the impact of an election being called and this third party no one ever hears anything about suddenly getting loads of airtime is going to be much, much weaker.”

Smaller isn’t the same as weaker.

See #6

12. Chaise Guevara

@ Planeshift

“So the lesson here is Lib dems can’t get policies through as a result of winning seats (apart from the unlikely scenario of winning outright). But they can by being a partner with others. So they achieve more by being the partner for 5 years – even if it costs them half their seats and takes them 20 years to recover – than they can through 25 years of slow growth in opposition in a system designed to keep small parties small.”

Very interesting point. Although if they’d done better in the last election they might have been able to deal with Labour rather than the Tories, which would probably have been less damaging for their reputation (especially if they’d managed to get rid of Brown in the process).

13. Mulligrubs

Galen @ 1.

Nice one – and not so wide of the mark methinks – but Village Halls as LD conference venues? Bit optimistically wasteful don’t you think? – a telephone kiosk should be adequate by the time those VAT Quislings present themselves for re-election.


Reactions: Twitter, blogs
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  2. OShea Dean

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  3. Andy S

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  4. ABC

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  5. salardeen

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  7. Neale GibsonAboAnber

    A good news item for the start of tne New Year : Libdems fall to lowest ever vote | Liberal Conspiracy http://t.co/gDWF1GI via @libcon

  8. Jen Mosley

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  9. Paul Wood

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  10. conspiracy theo

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  11. Daniel Pitt

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  12. Cliff O'Sullivan

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  13. Poll of polls: Libdems fall to lowest ever vote | Liberal Conspiracy | The Daily Conservative

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  14. No reason for Lefties to rejoice in Lib Dem poll misery | Left Futures

    [...] UK Polling Report points out — the Indy’s poll of polls has them at 11% which they (and Lib Con too) claim as the “lowest level since the party was formed in 1988,” but in fact they [...]

  15. Chris Keegan

    Libdems polling lowest since their formation. Good. Sack Nick Clegg and we'll talk. http://bit.ly/hY80eM

  16. Natacha Kennedy

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