Why Labour and lefties shouldn’t worry about the rise of UKIP
8:55 am - April 18th 2012
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For the second day in a row yesterday, YouGov revealed that UKIP were 1% point ahead of the Libdems (9% to 8%) as the third largest party. Another opinion poll Opinium has found the same result.
For a start, it means Libdem voters who abandoned the party over ‘betrayals’ post 2010 election are in no mood to come back. I can’t imagine that a few leaflets on how the Libdems have apparently managed to get 75% of their manifesto passed will work at local elections.
But does the rise of UKIP mean trouble for lefties? I’m sanguine about that too.
Let’s be blunt about this: UKIP overwhelmingly drain support from the Conservative party. Those voters are highly unlikely to vote Labour any time soon.
At the last election UKIP cost the Conservative party 21 seats – where the UKIP vote exceeded the Labour majority.
So a growth in the UKIP vote will only hurt the Conservative party further at elections. I don’t have any problems with that at all.
This also means further Tory party infighting, as hard-right Tories call for a shift to the right to pull back some of those voters. But a Conservative party only talking about immigration, Europe and related UKIP issues would damage their own brand with centrist voters.
Let the right split and fight on right-wing issues. That allows Labour to put forward more sensible and interesting ideas to hoover up enough remain votes to beat the others. From their perspective, this is a gift.
But will it shift public opinion to the right? I think David Osler and others worry too much about this. Public opinion isn’t shifted in a particular direction simply because a bunch of unhinged-sounding politicians make a case on TV.
There are way too many lefties who believe in the power of speeches. But as Ezra Klein showed in this excellent essay: people just aren’t persuaded that easily by politicians.
So relax and enjoy the ride. I want to savour the infighting for once, since it’s on the right.
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Sunny Hundal is editor of LC. Also: on Twitter, at Pickled Politics and Guardian CIF.
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Reader comments
That allows Labour to put forward more sensible and interesting ideas to hoover up enough remain votes to beat the others.
Ed has has a long time to do this, he’s not suddenly going to start being all centrist and on the ball, unless he takes a rather sudden turn, which is unlikely.
Having said that, Labour’s revamped BNP style logo that was passed around yesterday might pick up a few more uneducated or non-politically aware voters.
There is a danger of complacency on left though. If labour roll into election with 5 point lead but UKIP have 10%, I’d expect a good deal of then to switch back to Tories in the closing stages.
Needless to say I don’t regard a belief in national sovereignty and democracy as “unhinged”.
Or perhaps you support the technocratic control imposed on Greece and Italy?!
Of course you’re right about the infighting – see Hannan here obviously worried.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100151515/as-long-as-the-eurosceptic-vote-is-fragmented-the-euro-enthusiasts-will-keep-winning/
No, no, no.
We should never be happy or “enjoy the ride” when one of our political opponents experiences a rise such as the one UKIP are enjoying. I’m sure we all have our views on this party and the reasons why they are enjoying this opinion poll boost but the fact remains that this right wing anti-europe party is the opposite of Labour. If people are considering UKIP as an alternative to the government it is because the government are not right wing enough for them and this is bad news for Labour and the country.
A very complacent piece.
The danger is that UKIP could pull the Conservative party and public opinion to the right. It is not inevitable but we should be very alert to that danger.
If UKIP are enjoying a rise in the polls, i don’t believe its because they are right wing. I think its because they have a strong leader. I’ve watched Nigel Farage on you tube and he’s pretty impressive, although i doubt i could ever vote for them.
We know what UKIP stands for, but what does Labour stand for anymore, it’s hard to tell.
The important factor, surely, is what lies behind UKIP’s rise. I think it complacent to believe that this is just a problem for the Conservatives. Some will recall recent comments on here following the events in Greece: we were reminded by many posters that the EU was a right-wing trade scam, and that Labour had seen it all coming (and had been right to campaign to leave in 1983).
It’s hard to find EU supporters right now, and many regard recent actions in Greece and elsewhere as appalling.
Labour is able to debate (and criticise) the EU in ways that the Conservatives just can’t. Most agree that there are many things wrong with the EU, and this is absolutely not the same as believing that co-operation with fellow Europeans is wrong in itself.
As a major party, Labour should have a clear policy on Europe anyway … as should the Conservatives.
This recent BBC news report about Heseltine and Britain joining the Euro shows very clearly the current positions of the Conservative and Labour Parties:
Lord Heseltine says UK will join the euro
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17742675
There is nothing in that to show Heseltine has any insight into the fundamental flaws of the Eurozone: monetary unions without built-in fiscal unions, such as EMU, are inherently unstable.
Heseltine’s personal economic adviser when he was DTI minister was Walter Eltis, who was unambiguously opposed to Britain joining the Euro as Eltis sets out, at length, in his book: Britain, Europe and EMU (2000).
The only rationale conclusion is that Heseltine doesn’t know what he is talking about.
@ 7 Jack C
It’s also worth bearing in mind that the Tories recently put a massive hike on cigarette tax and are considering imposing minimum pricing on booze – two idea that UKIP would decry as nanny statism that attacks “normal” people. Combined with the EU, it’s hardly surprising that a certain rightwing demographic is finding UKIP to be more attractive.
“Needless to say I don’t regard a belief in national sovereignty and democracy as “unhinged”.”
Except when they are Scottish.
“Except when they are Scottish.”
Absolutely. I’m surprised that Alex Salmond hasn’t gone off to the UN Security Council to complain that map on the cover to The Economist about Skintland is a threat to world peace and a prelude to genocide.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/martin-hannan-skintland-slur-is-a-hate-crime-1-2238579
They say that you can even buy a sense of humour on eBay.
@ 11 Bob B
I love the way he takes a moment out from showing his lack of a sense of humour to bemoan how his party is seen as lacking a sense of humour…
My gut feel is that many – though not all – of these votes will go back to the Tories when it comes to the General Election.
So it is complacent to say the least to say that Labour should not be concerned at recent polls.
The question within Labour circles should always be asked: why aren’t these voters stating a preference for us?
Of course many UKIP voters are so far wackily rightwing (with parochial ideas of “national Sovereignty”) that they’d never vote Labour. But some ought to be on Labour’s radar for capture.
The growing split on the right is great because every bone Cam’ron throws the lunatics that comment on the Daily Telegraph will be pure Kryptonite to the centrist voters he also needs to win.
This before the cuts have really bedded in and the inevitable McHealthService-formerly-known-as-the-NHS scandals start to hit in a couple of years time.
I’d attribute at least some of UKIP’s ‘success’ to the Galloway/Boris factor – Farrage is a interesting character or a personality and even those with only a vague interest in politics will know his face, even if they don’t really know his politics. Sadly, this is what too many people now want from a politician. Perhaps (New) Labour themselves are partly to blame for this with the Blair personality cult that even the Tories wanted to mimic (or was that the quasi neo-liberal politics, I’m not sure).
Some of the ‘success’ will be similar to Respect’s recent win in that there will be an element of ‘protest vote’ about it. Many people are genuinely sick of what the Tories, the Libdems and New Labour have to offer. It’s like a Duluxe colour chart: we have a choice of ‘misty buff’, ‘spring caramel’ or ‘hazy dawn’ but the reality is that we’re being sold three slightly different shades of magnolia. This makes the ‘we need to out-Tory the Tories’ thinking I sometimes read on here even more worrying and depressing.
I’m not sure about the idea of gloating whilst the right supposedly tears itself apart though. The hardcore right of the Tories are already angry with Cameron and the very nature of a Coaltion; bizarrely, it’s just not right wing enough for most – despite the NHS being dismantled, the Welfare State being dismantled, tax breaks for the rich &c. All Cameron can do is move (even more) to the right in a bid to ease friction and render UKIP redundant. Which, for the bulk of the working classes, the unemployed, the disabled, those in rented accommodation etc will be a disaster. Particularly when so many writers here think Labour also needs to shift further to the right.
A further consideration is what happens when UKIP starts to regularly get upwards of 5k votes in more than a few constituencies but is left with nothing under FPTP.
The cheapest of all political protests is registering a preference in an opinion poll for a non-mainstream party. The next cheapest is voting for them in a European election. I suspect that when it comes to a General Election, most would-be ‘Kippers will feel that voting for them is a bit too pricy.
By the way, where do you get your stat that UKIP overwhelmingly drains support from the Tories? I’m sure I’ve seen analysis that shows that actual GE UKIP voters come from both ex-Labour and ex-Tory voters more or less equally.
“. The next cheapest is voting for them in a European election”
Are you saying you don’t care whether your party wins euro seats?
18. Planeshift
“. The next cheapest is voting for them in a European election”
Are you saying you don’t care whether your party wins euro seats?”
TimJ is right. Activists care about winning Euro seats, but most people don’t think the European parliament is a real or relevant institution, so tend to use these elections to give the Government a kicking if they think it needs it.
18 – me? Yes, I coudn’t give a rat’s arse about the European Elections. Though sadly I’ll have to vote Tory next time round, because Dan Hannan’s now one of my MEPs, and Sunny would be very disappointed in me if I didn’t.
@ 17 TimJ
“By the way, where do you get your stat that UKIP overwhelmingly drains support from the Tories? I’m sure I’ve seen analysis that shows that actual GE UKIP voters come from both ex-Labour and ex-Tory voters more or less equally.”
Agreed that statistics would be useful if available. But it seems unlikely that UKIP draws as much support from Labour as it does the Tories. Its key stances (anti-EU, anti-nanny-state, pro-tradition, little Englander in general) seem much more in tune with Tory policy (or at least rhetoric) than Labour.
You might be thinking of the BNP – they get a fair whack of disappointed Labour supporters via the disenfranchised working classes angle, I think.
Perhaps the logical response is for Miliband to call Cameron on it whenever he attempts to pander to the right and himself make the argument that it will only strengthen UKIP, maybe call Cameron a poor man’s Nigel Farage.
Found this:
http://www.matthewjgoodwin.com/2012/04/with-all-this-talk-about-ukip.html
which puts some figures on UKIP membership. Goodwin divides UKIP voters into two categories Strategic and Core. The former is more likely to be discontented Tories (and more likely to return at a General (not European or Bye) election). The latter is more Labour—in many cases the same type of voter that the BNP appealed to.
His conclusion:
“Ultimately, UKIP needs to decide. If it wants to continue playing a strategic and arguably unfulfilling game of poaching the odd disillusioned Conservative and attempting to influence policies on Europe then remain on course. Alternatively, if it wants to expand its political space by focusing on a broader array of domestic issues and employing the radical right model that has proven so successful elsewhere in Europe, then I would argue that the party would be met with a far more significant electoral following.”
To whichI would add: “…and if it avoids the overt open racism which put off a significant fraction of the election”. Many BNP voters were anti-immigration, not anti-foreign. This is a crucial distinction. It is not of itself racist to object to immigration, but the BNP’s overt racism meant that it could not expand its reach far beyond those who were. A UKIP which embraced both cuts in immigration and race-blindess for those legally here would have much more appeal than the BNP’s position did. This position would potentially hurt Labour as much, if not more, than the Tories, since it is the working-class Labour vote that feels—rightly or wrongly—that immigrants are taking their jobs.
It’ll be fkn hilarious if the Tories lose under FPTP because of UKIP votes they’d have got as second preference under AV.
Call for the analysis TimJ claims to have seen echoed. It absolutely seems implausible; the YouGov “who did you support before” polls for Kippers are solidly Tory (even more solidly than the BNP ones, which are themselves Torier-leaning than the Trying To Make Labour More Bigoted mob tend to lie).
Nice to think it’s only harming the Tories…. not nice to think that there is a rapidly growing number of people who have these mental opinions, and that I’m NOT happy with.
@ 24
“It’ll be fkn hilarious if the Tories lose under FPTP because of UKIP votes they’d have got as second preference under AV.”
True dat!
@ 25 Keira
Don’t assume that the number of people with those opinions is growing. It might just be that existing people with those opinions are jumping ship from other parties to UKIP, for whatever reason.
24 – I think this might be what I was thinking of:
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/06/07/doe-this-explode-the-telegraphs-ukip-myth/
As can be seen Labour was the biggest loser to UKIP with a negative correlation of 0.13. The UKIP-Tory correlation, on the other hand showed a small positive for the blues.
This being, obviously, an analysis of actual votes cast in an election, rather than opinion polling. I haven’t seen much actual statistical analysis, because people tend to assume that UKIP takes Tory votes, rather than demonstrate it.
(even more solidly than the BNP ones, which are themselves Torier-leaning than the Trying To Make Labour More Bigoted mob tend to lie).
I think the last reliable analysis of BNP voters is still the one we discussed here
https://liberalconspiracy.org/2009/10/28/dont-believe-your-eyes/
“BNP voters are twice as likely to have previously identified as Labour voters than any other party. They are also twice as likely to come from ‘Labour backgrounds’ than any other party”. Although the majority of BNP voters have never voted for anyone else.
I’m sure that UKIP are mostly harming the tories, doing what the SDP did to Labour in the 80s. I can enjoy a little schadenfreude at this, especially if the Lib Dems collapse too, as seems likely.
It’s wrong, though, to say that concerns about the EU and immigration are matters of concern to right-wing voters. Labour needs to recognise this rather than to dismiss it as racism or xenophobia.
Brown’s disastrous dismissal of Gillian Duffy as a bigot for expressing concerns about local jobs aptly demonstrates the disconnection between Westminster politics and people’s everyday concerns. Labour need to show that they understand the threats people feel, and not just with weasel words. If they don’t then they can be undermined by extremists too.
Unless we are seriously expected to believe that there are as many “natural Tories” in, say, Hull or Cornwall, both of which placed UKIP at the top of the poll for Strasbourg last time, as the combined Conservative and UKIP votes there would suggest, then we must accept that at least half of UKIP’s Strasbourg vote is Old Labour or, especially in the West Country, Old Liberal rather than Old Tory or “Thatcherite” New Right (don’t mention the Single European Act). The idea that they would otherwise vote Conservative is laughable. They would just go home. As, at General Elections, all sections of the UKIP Strasbourg vote always do.
As a matter of party policy, the Conservatives are not even remotely Eurosceptical, and they never have been. The Liberals and the SDP, both of which still exist, are both far more critical of the EU. So is the Gordon Brown-Ed Miliband-Ed Balls wing of New Labour, like the Labour Left and the parliamentary remnant of the Old Labour Right.
Miliband is already making hay, entirely sincerely and without any hint of opportunism, over the Coalition’s daft schemes to cripple provincial economies by slashing the spending power of public employees far from London, to redefine legal marriage in order to include same-sex couples (which has never been Labour Party policy, and on which Labour MPs are probably going to have a free vote), to deregulate Sunday trading, to devastate rural communities by flogging off our Post Office and our roads to private companies and even to foreign states, to break the Royal Mail’s direct link between the monarchy and every address in this Kingdom, to abolish Gift Aid while drastically reducing the activities entitled to charitable status, and to bankrupt the Church of England by imposing VAT on listed building repairs.
He could seal his position as the voice of moderate, mainstream Britain by promising primary legislation to restore the supremacy of British over EU law, to use that provision both to repatriate agricultural policy and to restore the United Kingdom’s historic fishing rights (200 miles, or to the median line), to require that all EU legislation pass through both Houses of Parliament as if it had originated in one or other of them, to require that British Ministers adopt the show-stopping Empty Chair Policy until such time as the Council of Ministers meet in public and publish an Official Report akin to Hansard to the satisfaction of a resolution of the House of Commons, to disapply any ruling of either European Court unless and until ratified by a resolution of the House of Commons, and to disapply anything passed by the European Parliament but not by the majority of those MEPs certified as politically acceptable by at least one seat-taking member of the House of Commons.
Heaven knows, the party of Heath, Thatcher and Major never will.
David: you are wrong about the same-sex marriage issue. Ed supports it and has spoken out in favour. I think there will be no more than a couple of Labour MP’s who vote against.
I also think that the European issue is interesting at the moment because the only people who are outside an essentially ‘stay in Europe but no enthusiasm’ position are UKIP and a few right wing Tories, who are well out of step with the party leadership
If the Tories are pulled to the right a lot of people’s lives are fucked. asylum seekers sent home to die etc. so it’s nothing to cheer. what matters isn’t what party’s in power but what policies are in place
Indeed, there’s no evidence whatsoever that the rise of the UKIP party recently is down to an ideological shift to the right. Lib Dems + Labour have, for the past year, had about 50% of the opinion polling combined. Nothing is breaching that figure, just transferring from one right wing party to another.
@6 Lynne: If UKIP are enjoying a rise in the polls, i don’t believe its because they are right wing. I think its because they have a strong leader.
That may be a factor, but IMO it’s not the main reason.
The main reason is that all the establishment parties are disliked by the electorate. This is also why George Galloway won in Bradford East, it’s why there’s a long term trend for votes to minor parties to increase, and it’s why I think that the Pirate Party will replace the Lib Dems.
Tim: Professor Denver’s analysis doesn’t (can’t) answer the question, because electoral returns – being anonymous – don’t show who a voter voted for last time.
So what? Well, the table you linked above could, in theory, arise if Labour voters were switching to UKIP. However, it could also arise if Labour voters were switching to non-voting and to Tory voting, while at the same time a smaller but still significant proportion of Tory voters were switching to UKIP.
The only evidence we have which does answer the question is the YouGov “who did you used to vote for / what’s your background / would you rather a Labour or Tory govt” polls – which overwhelmingly show UKIP voters as ex-Tories from Tory backgrounds who’d rather see a Tory govt than a Labour one. We also know that the Tories won the most votes as the last election because of people switching from Labour to non-voting and to Tory voting.
In other words, it’s wildly improbably that the table can be interpreted in the way you interpret it, and highly likely that it should be interpreted as showing that Tories shifting to UKIP led to a smaller swing to the Tories than there otherwise would have been.
@ 28 Tim
” think this might be what I was thinking of”
First, see John B above: the data doesn’t tell us anything. Secondly, even if it did, it would be about changes in vote share *in one election*, not which party would benefit the most if UKIP closed down tomorrow.
Thanks John. I agree that it makes intuitive sense that UKIP supporters are ex-Tories, but I haven’t seen a proper psephological analysis that shows this (not that I’m saying there aren’t any!) nor an analysis of where their actual voters (a much smaller number after all) come from.
FWIW, I still believe that at the General Election UKIP will sink back to the 3-4% mark…
It’s a naive idea that has become fostered by the left that all voters have a particular ‘wing’ or political space. What the majority of voters put their ‘x’ next to is what they feel reaches out to them, what they consider relevant to their everyday lives. As much as I wish it wasn’t, some of the issues in our society preyed upon by UKIP are very real and very disheartening. So lefties should fear the rise of UKIP, as they provide a new breed of tory, a ‘super-tory’ which is able to communicate and effectively deceive the once working class strongholds of the left. From my own personal expereince, the only UKIP voters I have spoken to are working class males who have become disillusioned by what they see as Labour’s overly-lenient immigration policy.
Diligent followers of the news have long since realised that European Monetary Union was a big mistake. As Jacques Delors put it:
Euro doomed from start, says Jacques Delors
The euro project was flawed from the start and the current generation of European leaders has failed to address its fundamental problems, Jacques Delors, the architect of the single currency
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8932647/Euro-doomed-from-start-says-Jacques-Delors.html
The trouble for Britain is that the damage being inflicted on the European economy by EMU will continue regardless of whether Britain leaves the European Union or not. In other words, UKIP is pointless.
Sunny is trying to apply his experience of leftist splintering to the right wing. The right wing doesn’t work like that – they have business experience, so are much more savvy about things like mergers.
UKIP thus far has been a minor irritation to the tories – lost them a few seats in parliament in the past, reduced their influence in the European Parliament, etc.
The main equation for the Tory strategists to bear in mind is that it is better to have 999 voters switch to UKIP than 500 switch to Labour. Conversely, if they can win back more than 2 UKIP voters for every 1 they lose to Labour by doing so, they are still ahead of the game.
But if UKIP becomes a major threat, the tories will simply co-opt them. A couple of tory MPs will defect to UKIP and then they’ll run on a joint ticket for the next election in seats where UKIP is particularly strong (Conservative Party, for UK Independence).
That’ll frighten some tory voters into the arms of the Lib Dems, and some into Labour, but will prevent the major damage of tories switching to UKIP in large numbers.
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