John Rentoul vs most people
John Rentoul, chief political commentator for The Independent on Sunday, writes that “the tax on bankers’ bonuses was the final act of self-destruction” for the Labour Party, and that “Brown’s reversion to class-war politics has compounded his error. The City’s fury matters…And for what? It won’t make Labour any more popular among the voters it needs to save its marginal seats at the election.”
So according to Rentoul’s argument, we would expect opinion polls to reveal that most people oppose the government’s policies, right?
ComRes:
From what I have heard, the Government’s plans for heavier taxes on people with high incomes are fair
Agree 66%
Disagree 28%
Don’t know 5%
This illustrates: (a) The Government is right, in the eyes of most voters, to tax high earners more heavily. (b) Unsurprisingly the highest proportion who agree are DEs (71%) although even 64% of ABs agree. (c) There is also a correlation between age and agreement, with older voters the most likely to agree. (d) Although Labour voters are the voter group most likely to agree, 61% of Tories do too.
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The Inconvenient Truth about David Rose’s ‘Special Investigation’
So, at last, the Mail on Sunday has waded into the furore surrounding the hacked CRU emails with a special investigation, bringing out its big guns, David Rose, who is highly regarded as a journalist and has a solid track record in serious reporting and investigations, to write up the story.
For all his well-deserved reputation as a serious journalist, Rose, it must be said, also has previous form for being taken in by sources he believed to be reliable at the time but which then proved to have been feeding him disinformation. In this case the disinformation in question related to alleged links between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda, which Rose fell for hook, line and sinker. To his credit Rose did eventually come clean and admit to having been duped, expressing his regrets in very strong and, in regards to the role of some of his sources.
The point I’m making here is that even a very good journalist is only ever going to be as good as his sources, and in the case of Rose’s investigation his choice of sources are letting him down very badly indeed.
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How the Times distorted opinion on global warming poll
contribution by Climate Sock
A few weeks ago The Times ran a story claiming a Times/Populus poll had found that only 41% of Britons think that global warming is man-made. Clearly I’d missed something dramatic that had brought about such a radical change in how people see climate change (and this was before any UEA emails came out).
Bear in mind that the sort of numbers we’re used to seeing on this question are between 80-90% thinking that climate change/global warming is at least partly man-made (see for example MORI’s Tipping Point report). A drop of this magnitude sounded pretty fishy to me.
Populus, very helpfully, provide a full break-down of the results on their website. If you have a look through the questions, there isn’t much controversial about the structure of the poll: it seems quite fairly set out, rather than having been rigged to lead respondents to answer one way or the other.
So if the poll itself is fine, what about the results? Here’s my own summary of the bit about perceptions of climate change/global warming:
- Around 5 in 6 believe that climate change and global warming are taking place;
- Only 23% disbelieve anthropogenic climate change;
- Nearly 4 in 5 think that climate change is either very serious or the most serious problem we face.
This hardly matches the media reporting of the poll.
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The supposed criminality of black people
There’s a paradox raised by the reaction to “Rod” Liddle’s mostly incorrect claim that “the overwhelming majority of street crime, knife crime, gun crime, robbery and crimes of sexual violence in London is carried out by young men from the African-Caribbean community.”
The paradox is this. When it comes to tax, the right are keen to stress that people respond to incentives. And yet when it comes to crime they seem coy about incentives, and prefer to talk about “multiculturalism“ or genes.
The paradox is especially strong because economic theory is much clearer on the link between poverty and crime than between tax rates and tax revenue.
This is because in the case of taxes, the income and substitution effects work in opposite ways. The substitution effect causes people to prefer leisure over work when taxes rise, whilst the income effect causes them to want to work more to recoup lost income. However, with crime the two work in the same direction. The income effect causes a poor person to turn to crime to raise money, whilst the substitution effect means the unemployed have more time with which to commit crime, and lower penalties – no danger of losing one‘s job – for doing so.
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Tory economic attacks keep missing target
Most of the time, the mainstream media acts like a baying mob with rarely a sense of nuance or self-reflection.
For example over the last few weeks we’ve seen journalist after journalist echoing the Tory line that Britain was in danger of having its credit rating downgraded because of its so-called “mammoth debt” (a narrative now taken up by the liberal press too).
At any other time the Tories would be furious at someone constantly trying to downplay the strength of the British economy. But when they’re doing it that’s ok.
And so it came to pass that Boy George’s constant dire warnings about the economy’s creditworthiness came to nothing.
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How could the PCC reform? Your suggestions needed
Sunny has highlighted that the Press Complaints Commission is carrying out its annual review of the Editors’ Code.
Given the low key nature of the review, and the fact that the new PCC chair Baroness Buscombe has made it clear she doesn’t see any overall crisis in the media’s standards, the best chance for change I think comes from one or two specific, narrow and well worded suggestions which are supported by a large number of people.
There certainly are some much bigger issues that should be at stake – but this isn’t a process likely to resolve those.
So what changes might it be sensible to suggest? My favourite is to lobby for a change so that in future newspapers have to properly acknowledge the source of stories lifted from others, most notably blogs.
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Preventing terrorism at home
A late contender for post of the year, this superb treatise on local racism, the decay and depression of outer-city housing estates and with it the potential for extremism, also contains a paragraph that gives me heart that permanently pulling up the tabloids on their bullshit, however many times you repeat yourself, is worth it:
The impulse to segregate was compounded by the messages that seemed to reinforce the idea that the treatment in Southmead reflected the mood and views of the rest of Britain. “Hundreds of thousands of migrants here for handouts, says senior judge“. “Britain paying migrants £1,700 to return home BEFORE they’ve even got here” “The violent new breed of migrants who will let nothing stop them coming to Britain“.
These headlines were just three of many that were printed in the Mail, a right-wing daily during my time in Southmead. I don’t usually take much notice of the headlines in the Sun and the Mail unless they are truly shocking, but in Southmead the headlines seemed to have an impact on the treatment we received. The level of low-level hostility from adults seemed to be directly linked to the content of the headlines. More outright hostility from younger adults and children followed a day or so later.
Do go and read the whole thing.
Climate change sceptics? Really?
Growing climate change scepticism on the political right has been one of the themes of a week in which David Davis gave voice to the Parliamentary dissenters to David Cameron’s (welcome) “hug a huskie” enthusiasm, while the Australian Liberals ditched a leader over his support for legislation to reduce carbon emissions.
Andrew Grice reflects in his Independent column, quoting the well informed Tim Montgomerie of Conservative Home claiming that the dominance of climate scepticism around the Tory blogosphere, documented here on Next Left is not simply an internet phenomenon buzt reflects majority sentiment among Tory MPs, candidates and activists.
Tempting though it may be to dismiss this as leftist stirring, that seems a good right-wing source.
If Montgomerie is right about the strength of scepticism at all levels, then it is not at all surprising that Grice reports that there are ’sleeper’ allies at the top table.
So, who are they? Tips, educated guesses and/or evidence from previous statements very welcome! I don’t think any member of the Shadow Cabinet will think the balance of risk would make it worth a showing a bit of leg to grassroots sentiment, not this side of a General Election anyway.
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BBC has repeats, ITV has ‘classics’
Sometimes it’s the subtle semantic prejudices that are the most revealing, as here in Telegraph’s foray into the annual round of whinging about there being too many repeats in the Christmas TV schedules…
600 hours of TV repeats to be shown over Christmas
Nearly 600 hours of repeats will be shown on Britain’s four main television channels over the festive period according to schedules released by broadcasters.
Let’s play ‘Karate Kid’ – Wax on…
On the BBC’s two main channels, there will be approximately 270 hours of repeats over the holiday period.
The majority of BBC Two’s Christmas schedule consists of repeats. On Christmas Eve, the channel is showing only four programmes that have not been seen before, including the traditional carol concert from King’s College, Cambridge.
Wax off…
ITV One will also be broadcasting more than 117 hours of classics and old shows during the Christmas fortnight.
And wax on again…
On Channel 4, about 192 hours of repeats and old films will be shown during the festive fortnight.
In 2007, Channel 4 were notionally granted £14 million in state funding over six years, by the government, to help it out of a funding crisis, with the money due to come from the BBC licence fee. The deal was, however, scrapped by Andy Burnham, during his tenure at the DCMS (Jan 2008 – July 2009) before C$ received any of the promised funding, not that this has prevented the channel from winding up on the Telegraph’s shit list. continue reading… »
Why we should fall a little bit in love with Sally Bercow
Ever drunk more than one bottle of wine? Had a one night stand? Not if you’re a Labour politician standing for a seat in Pimloco you haven’t. Except Sally Bercow has, and she doesn’t seem afraid to admit it.
Anne McElvoy deserves full praise for an exceptional interview with Sally Bercow in yesterday’s London Evening Standard, where she gets the Sally Bercow to frankly discuss politics and past misdemeanours.
It’s not that she’s married to a Conservative speaker and willing to trash the party, we’ve all gotten used to that. It’s that she actually seems to be refreshingly human. Speaking as young person, it’s brilliant to hear politicians admit to making a mistake (lying on her CV) or just behaving a little big outrageously.
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Re-tuning the environmental movement
Dubbed ‘climategate’, the leaking of emails from University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit, seems to have given the self-proclaimed ‘global warming sceptics’ a boost in their worldview.
Inevitably, a lot of the comments and emails have been taken out of the context and twisted to suit the ’sceptics’. The emails haven’t even been verified for authenticity – they could have been made up. The Times even claimed a lot of data was dumped, when it wasn’t. Misinformation has always been a classic tactic of the deniers.
This isn’t about whether most of global warming is driven by human activity – my position is very clear – but about how to win the public relations battle.
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Why are Tory writers so stupid?
Maybe it’s a good job that newspapers don’t matter, because even the so-called quality ones carry appalling errors. Via Tim and Danny, here are two in the Torygraph.
First, it tells us that:
A low income household is one that lives on less than 60 per cent of the average UK household income
No. Low income is defined, for official purposes, as 60% of the median household income. If you’d read the Joseph Rowntree report, or even just the summary of it, you’d know this*.
Second, Janet Daley writes:
The Office for National Statistics points out that the amount spent on state education has risen by 43 per cent since 2000 but school “productivity” – measured by GCSE and stats results - has actually declined by 7.5 per cent. There is what statisticians call an inverse correlation between the amount of money spent by the state on schools and their academic success.
This is just gibber.
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Labour should expel Frank Field MP
‘What we’ve go to do here is get people to understand it’s not a referendum it’s a choice and as a choice it has consequences,’ said Sean Woodward MP at the Labour party conference.
And the fast emerging electoral strategy, as reflected by Labour Matters, is all about ensuring that the voters see the clear blue water between Labour and the Tories.
The focus, say the electoral strategists and the PR people, should be on the way Labour is dealing with the economy, and the 1937-style disaster that may well ensue if the Tories get into power.
And as election strategies go, it’s pretty good one, especially as it’s starting to be sharpened up by a concentration on how the Tories will ‘target investment on a tax giveaway of £200,000 to the 3,000 wealthiest estates’; in general the focus is on reminding people that, in the end, it is the Labour party that is wedded to the interests of the working class, not the Tories.
Time then, for Labour members, you’d think, to get behind the message. Unless you’re Frank Field, that is.
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Observer repeating right-wing spin on inheritance tax
Andrew Rawnsley has an excellent article in today’s Observer on the changing politics of inheritance tax. In the era of deficits and looming austerity, the Conservative pledge looks less canny than when it was first announced in 2007, as if the one group that the Conservatives can find some tax relief for in these difficult times are the very rich.
The Observer’s Political Editor, Toby Helm, also reports that, in view of the changed circumstances, the government is considering freezing the threshold, rather than increasing it as planned.
This would seem to me to be the least the government could do as part of a program for spreading the burden of paying for valuable public services in what are indeed difficult times.
But consider how Helm chooses to describe the issue:
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Cameron: More to be done on workplace bullying
Anthony Painter has nothing but praise for David Cameron’s stance on workplace bullying…
Can I just say that I categorically agree with the statement on bullying that David Cameron issued to the National Bullying Helpline in September of this year:
“Stamping out bullying in the workplace and elsewhere is a vital objective. Not only can bullying make people’s lives a misery, but it harms business and wider society too.
Now it seems he has a perfect opportunity to put his views into practice…
A News of the World reporter who suffered from a culture of bullying <b>led by former editor Andy Coulson, who is now David Cameron’s head of communications</i>, has been awarded almost £800,000 for unfair dismissal and disability discrimination.
Anthony asks the question…
“Perhaps Mr Cameron could give his reaction and say how he intends to demonstrate his commitment to making workplace bullying a ‘thing of the past’?”
Mandelson’s Copyright Death Star exposed
I’m not even going to comment on this story, having more or less promised myself from the outset that I wouldn’t go into full-on swearblogging mode at LC. Instead, I’ll the Guardian tell the story…
Lord Mandelson is seeking to amend the laws on copyright to give the government sweeping new powers against people accused of illegal downloading…
In a letter to Harriet Harman, the leader of the house and head of the committee responsible for determining changes to such legislation, Mandelson says he is “writing to seek your urgent agreement” to changes to the 1988 Copyright, Designs and Patents Act “for the purposes of facilitating prevention or reduction of online copyright infringement”…
Henry VIII clause alert!!!
The proposed alteration to the Copyright Act would create a new offence of downloading material that infringes copyright laws, as well as giving new powers or rights to “protect” rights holders such as record companies and movie studios – and, controversially, conferring powers on “any person as may be specified” to help cut down online infringement of copyright.
The changes proposed seem small – but are enormously wideranging, given both the breadth of even minor copyright infringement online, where photographs and text are copied with little regard to ownership, and the complexity of ownership.
And, in the process, leave the Copyright Act wide open to further amendments with minimal parliamentary scrutiny – cue Rupert Murdoch…
By giving the business secretary the power to amend the Copyright Act at will, Labour fears Mandelson could be creating a Trojan horse that under a Tory administration would allow Murdoch to be rewarded for his support for David Cameron over Gordon Brown, for example by making it illegal to use such extracts from a news site for profit.
I know I said wouldn’t swearblog, but isn’t Mandelson a complete and utter cunt.
The PCC still want to regulate blogs (the Baroness responds)
In response to Unity’s letter and petition posted earlier this week on LibCon, the PCC’s new chair Baroness Peta Buscombe has already responded to me by email. I publish the full letter below and a response below that.
It’s worth emphasising that at this point we haven’t yet sent off the letter. You can still sign it on the earlier thread and make suggestions.
* * * * * *
18th November 2009
Dear Mr Hundal
Thank you for your letter about my apparent proposal to regulate the blogosphere. I know you are intending to send it to me on Friday, but – given that it is already being commented on – I thought I’d respond right away. It is useful to have the chance to clarify what I was saying to Ian Burrell.
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Blogging and PCC Regulation – A Collective Response
As you may have either seen on the Indy’s website, or picked up on from Mark’s commentary on her speech to the Society of Editors, Baroness Buscombe, the new Chair of the Press Complaints Commission, has been making noises about extending the PCC’s remit to cover blogs and blogging.
In the past, when this kind of thing has been mooted, the typical response has been one of lots of blog-shouting of the ‘you’ll have to take my blog out of my cold dead hands’ variety. This time around I thought we might take a different approach and write directly to the PCC setting out one of the key practical reasons why PCC regulation would be a bad idea – which of, us, after all, wants to be seen to working to the ethical standards of the MSM when, with a few exceptions, these are so much lower than our own.
So, with that firmly in mind, I’ve drafted a collective response to the Baroness’s suggestion for you all to chew over, one that any active bloggers can sign-up to by leaving your name (real or online) and details of the your blog (title/link) in comments.
Comments on the text and any suggestions for amendments or additional matters to include are, of course, welcome – this is a blog not a newspaper after all.
At the end of this week, I’ll transfer any sign-ups to the letter and get it shipped off to the PCC, DCMS and Commons CMS committee.
UPDATE – Oh, and don’t pay too much attention to the time-stamp on this post – it was actually posted at 11:49am on 17th November but will be time-shifted, over next few days to, keep it visible in the left-hand side bar on the front page, so don’t worry that a lot of comments might appear to pre-date the post.
<— Letter Starts Here —>
PCC in crisis as Rusbridger resigns
Guardian editor, Alan Rusbridger, has resigned from the Press Complaints Commission’s code committee days after the Guardian’s coverage of the News of the World phone-hacking affair was criticised by the regulator.
The PCC said it found no evidence that it was “materially misled” by the News of the World over the alleged hacking of celebrities’ mobile phones or that the practice was “ongoing”, prompting Rusbridger to respond by saying:
“If you have a self-regulation system that’s finding nothing out and has no teeth, and all the work is being done by external people, it’s dangerous for self-regulation. If you have a regulator behaving this uselessly, I suspect MPs will start saying this is not regulation,”
More – http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/nov/17/guardian-editor-resigns-pcc
Getting Labour’s prison record wrong
Having attacked Gordon Brown personally last week and came off the worst for it, this week the Sun seems to have decided to stand on surer ground, by attacking Labour on crime.
Problem is, it can’t seem to do so without telling some whopping great lies, as yesterday’s leader shows:
Prison policy, in particular, has become a joke. Early on, Labour decided not to build more jails and instead focus on alternatives to prison and early release for prisoners.
In 1997 the average prison population was 61,470 (page 4). The population last Friday was 84,593 (DOC), a rise in just 12 years of more than 20,300. I can’t seem to find any concrete figures on just what the total number of places available in 1997 was, but ministers themselves boast that they have created over 20,000 additional places, and the Prison Reform Trust agrees, noting in this year’s Bromley report that the number of places has increased by 33% since the party came to power (page 5).
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You can read articles through the front page, via Twitter or rss feeds.
» Why don’t MPs pay back tuition fees instead of increasing ours?
» Obama is right to slam BP – and why capitalists should too
» Why does Phillip Blond see civil cohesion as a security issue?
» So what if the Labour candidates went to Oxbridge?
» Last night’s Labour hustings: will it get interesting or turn to torture?
» It’s now down to Ken to win London for Labour
» The Labour people need
» Blog Nation: what would you like to see discussed?
» The Labour leadership’s token contender.. and it’s not Diane Abbott
» In defence of these fraternal nominations
» Is this the end for the socialist left?
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