Labour still hasn’t sealed the deal
While eating on Saturday at a restaurant, I noticed this little sign on the table thanking the Chancellor for reducing VAT. I’ve been pretty sceptical of the impact and viability of this move, but a fellow blogger at a Boris watchers meet on Friday pointed out that businesses across the country were doing the Chancellor’s PR for him in mentioning these incentives.
As yet, the polls don’t point that way. Yesterday’s Comres poll in the IoS confirms an earlier view that Labour is only one point behind the Conservatives. A YouGov poll in the Sunday Times points to a Tory six-point lead, greatly reduced from double-digit leads only a few months ago (surprisingly, neither Iain Dale nor Guido Fawkes bother mentioning either poll).
Anthony Wells says what I’ve been banging about too:
The most surprising of the four statements to me was “The Conservative response to the economic crisis seems to me like a ‘do nothing’ strategy” – normally polls reveal a pretty cynical attitude towards politicians from the public, and the Conservatives hadn’t seemed to have got any obvious alternative strategy across to the public, so I’d expected majority agreement here. In fact only 45% agreed, with 45% disagreeing – suggesting Labour’s line of attack on the Conservatives hasn’t chimed as much as it might have (not that this seems to be helping the Conservatives in topline voting intentions!)
Brian Coleman AM: Ignorant incompetent sexist buffoon
Oh dear. Boris doesn’t half know how to pick ‘em, right? This time, it’s his Chair of the London Fire and Emergency Planning Authority, Brian Coleman AM, that’s shown himself up. His crime? Complete ignorance of fire authority guidelines, a sexist attack on a female MP and a complete unwillingness to actually find out what you’re supposed to do in an emergency.
Beggers belief, doesn’t it? I think the worst aspect of the whole story is that the Tory press is completely on side with his story, and even when quoting fire service sources debunking his claim, have still joined in with his incompetent posturing.
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More Tory economic idiocy
The Tory economic policy is really beginning to annoy me. George Osborne has written an incredibly smug article in today’s (supposedly left-wing) Indy which trots out more guff.
1) The Germans may not be happy about our spending plans, but they’re pretty much alone in Europe on this. Even the (right-wing!) Sarkozy and Bush governments want to pump money into the economy. Some half-wit German ministers start dissenting and the Tories have a collective orgasm. Get over yourselves.
2) And then there’s this: “Only a few weeks ago Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling said that they would bring forward capital projects to boost the economy. Now they are announcing cuts and delays to major programmes.”
That is shadow defence secretary Liam Fox, annoyed that defence spending is being cut.. But…but… I thought these people wanted to cut spending? Oh, that was only for poor people that Cameron can demonise with help from the Daily Mail. When defence gets chopped then suddenly they want those big projects you see.
3) Anyone with half an economic brain can tell you that a sinking currency during a recession is a good thing because it makes our exports cheaper. Inflation isn’t a worry right now, deflation is. So a falling pound should be celebrated, not used as an economic football when you have nothing intelligent to say, Osborne.
Update: Oh look, Germany signs up to European spending plans
Is this what Cameron thinks of them?
Harpymarx says if you thought James Purnell was bad, then try Civitas.
Sure but if you thought those idiots were bad, check out David Cameron’s latest editorial in the Daily Mail. Now we know what the Tory leader truly thinks of all unemployed people: that they’re just on the verge of turning into Karen Matthews.
Or maybe he thinks that of all working class people. Anyone still praying for these arrogant toffs to come into power? (via Paul Waugh)
Update 1: Good related piece by Matthew Norman in the Indy.
Update 2: Beau Bo D’Or has knocked up a perfect response.
Boris Johnson’s touch = career suicide
Poof! And there goes another Boris advisor, this time the Carphone Warehouse businessman David Ross who was to help him cut costs from the Olympics. Too bad he wasn’t good at managing his own finances. Another egg in the face for Boris, who can’t even say anything coherent to defend his position.
From Beau Bo D’Or
What does the list look like? So far it only consists of: Bob Diamond, James McGrath, Ray Lewis, Tim Parker and now David Ross.
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Tories: Do as we say but…
ConservativeHome has posted a useful nugget of information on why Conservative HQs had to lay off 10% of staff recently:
To paraphrase George Osborne (and Fraser Nelson in the News of the World) the Tory leadership did not fix the party’s finances during the good economic times and are now facing very difficult decisions as a consequence.
…
The credit crunch is obviously not Conservative Party’s fault but the effect would have been more limited if there were better financial controls and a more strategic view at CCHQ.
Wait a second, doesn’t that a ring a bell? Recall anyone making accusations of profligacy and not saving up for a rainy day? If these people can’t even run their own HQ with the values they espouse, how do they plan to run the country?
Do the Tories favour a deep recession?
This week Barack Obama laid out his economic plans:
Obama, who takes office on January 20, began outlining his economic recovery plan on Saturday, saying he aims to create at least 2.5 million new jobs by 2011 and launch the largest U.S. infrastructure investment since the 1950s. On Sunday he did not put a price tag on the plan, which analysts say could cost at least $500 billion. But he acknowledged the costs would be “substantial” and would hike the budget deficit at least in the short term.
“We’ve got to provide a blood infusion to the patient right now to make sure the patient is stabilized,” Obama said. “We can’t worry short term about the deficit … We’ve got to make sure the economic stimulus plan is large enough to get the economy moving.”
Obama is likely to sell this as a way to ensure all Americans are ‘equipped to handle future challenges’ by investing green power, broadband, education and healthcare. If the plan works well, it could destroy the right-wing economic consensus around Milton Friedman for at least a generation and ensure Democrats stay in power for a while to come. Of course, US Conservatives are whining because they know what’s at stake, but unlike Gordon Brown at least Obama can lay out his plans forcefully and clearly.
So while the Tories have successfully managed to divert attention to the Damian Green affair, people are losing their jobs and houses and this government is still dithering over what to do or how to avoid talking about the ‘tax bombshell’. I despair.
Tory recession ad uses bankrupt builder
Oh dear, these Joe the Plumber attack ads don’t really work do they? Well, here’s another reason to point and laugh at the Tories, courtesy of Mark at Libdemvoice:
Shane Prescott starred in the Conservative party broadcast on Thursday, claiming his business had struggled because of the recession. But Companies House records show the 51-year-old father-of-four’s loft conversion firm actually went into liquidation at the height of the boom in 2006.
More at the Liverpool Daily Post. The ad is as fatuous as their own economic plans.
Damian Green: Tory crocodile tears
Snippets of commentary from blogs on the Damian Green arrest.
Jim Bliss:
But the last people that should be replacing them are a bunch of dangerous fools who are willing to cry “Stalin” when one of their own gets questioned for a few hours and then released, but who stay silent at — and indeed support — the systematic harrassment of others. I don’t recall the Tory outcry when police kicked down a door in Forest Gate and shot an unarmed suspect. I don’t recall the tories accusing the police of ‘Stalinesque’ tactics that day. In fact, just to demonstrate how divorced these fools are from reality, how utterly self-serving in their outlook, a Tory spokesman has described Green’s arrest as “unprecedented in its heavy-handedness”.
Unprecedented? Really? What complete tossers those tories truly are.
Why is the government losing this argument?
I frequently get the feeling this government would have trouble selling a Che Guevara t-shirt to a socialist, given how badly it is at communicating anything.
We are amidst the greatest financial crisis of several generations, with the world’s largest bank, Citigroup, and largest carmaker, General Motors, teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. Those who called loudly for more de-regulation and piously informed us that financial markets were looking after the interests of shareholders and pension funds are now running for cover. And yet New Labour still looks like its losing the public argument.
I think there are two reasons for this.
Firstly, it’s fighting the battle on a losing battle-field; its narrative is all wrong.
The Conservatives astutely made this a discussion about taxes and Public Sector Debt, and Labour has fallen directly into their trap. Instead, the government should be pointing out the need to keep retailers and our banks afloat – hence the tax breaks and banks guarantees and loans. For once I actually agree with Gerard Baker in that this stimulus doesn’t go far enough. But of course, while the Tories are trying to scare everyone about the coming tax bombshell, New Labour is too scared for anything radical enough to have an immediate impact.
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Voters still don’t trust Tories on economy
While following the US elections for two years, I became converted over to the not-so-secretive world of polling, mostly thanks to the genius of Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight – who did a fantastic job of building narratives and challenging preconceptions through raw polling data (see this interview).
So here’s my question. Since the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the impending financial crisis, the poll numbers decisively moved against the Republicans because voters blamed them for mismanagement of the economy. In the UK however the opposite seems to have happened. Polling released yesterday by Mori put Conservatives only 3% ahead, from a high of between 15% – 20% only a few months ago, highlighted on UK Polling Report and Political Betting. Why are voters in the UK punishing Conservatives for the financial crisis instead of Labour?
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Tory social engineering is back!
The Conservatives are publishing their recommendations. Don’t worry if your husband beats you. Iain Duncan Smith tells you why you should stick together.
What better way to publicise their proposals than in the wake of Baby P’s death and the ‘blood on their hands’ groundwork done by the tabloids? Back-to-basics Tories and social engineering are back with a bang. Iain Duncan Smith, former Conservative leader and now David Cameron’s advisor on ’social breakdown’ has published his recommendations.
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A real horror show
Who with any sense whatsoever would be a social worker? Lambasted for taking children away unnecessarily, demonised when inevitable if horrifying mistakes are made, it must surely rank up there with opting to become a traffic warden and refereeing in the least appealing professions available.
It doesn’t help of course when politicians, as well as the media and now message board ranters are in effect baying for blood. David Cameron and Gordon Brown may not have been actively calling or in effect justifying violence against those convicted of the shocking abuse of Baby P as some have today, but their use of a dead child not as a political football, but as a political corpse, as others have already justifiably defined it, was not just unedifying, it was a shaming spectacle.
Cameron opened up reasonably enough at PMQ’s with asking the prime minister why the head of Haringey social services had been the one that had conducted the internal inquiry into what had gone wrong. This was perfectly fine, and more than valid a question to bring up.
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The timeless Tories
Why the Tories will forever be old hat.
Hello, all.
This lengthy piece (tis a bit long – got carried away) is the first in a number that will look at Conservative behaviour on the ground. Yours truly wonders if the Tories are fit for public office, exactly, and/or if social responsibility is really their bag…
This week, staff at Tory council Hammersmith and Fulham will meet to organise a response to the latest attack by the council’s Conservative leadership. What a distasteful attack this one is, too – all council staff have been told they will be dismissed and forced to sign new employment contracts on much-reduced terms and conditions.
So.
I know exactly how the Tory trollies among you will greet this news: you’ll say (sans deliberation, as always) that lazy, fat arsed public sector staff – those you doubtless imagine operate the schools, housing offices, libraries, street cleaning and social services at Hammersmith and Fulham – deserve it (do you class bankers as fat arsed, overindulged public sector workers now, btw?). You’ll say that public sector workers deserve the awful hours, and the lack of union representation and employer sympathy and flexibility that your average working stiff in the private sector gets.
But do they?
I think not.
Watchdog not interested in Osborne probe
The BBC is reporting that the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner will not investigate Gideon George Osborne over his dealings with a Russian oligarch.
Following a widely reported series of events that have also landed Peter Mandleson in hot water, the Shadow Chancellor has been fighting for his political life after it was said that he had attempted to solicit a £50,000 donation from billionaire Oleg Deripaska.
Now it seems Osborne will survive. Shame.
Sorry, but is it me or is there something fundamentally smarmy about Osborne? Seriously, I really can’t stand the guy. I don’t want to come across all class-warrior and all that (I’m really not the type), but there is something about him that really gets under my skin. Have you seen the Bullingdon photos?
He reminds me of those people at school who always hung around the big kids and caused trouble.
A paragraph in last week’s Guardian suggests the smug self-importance isn’t just an unfortunate appearance ::
One Osborne tactic which has irritated colleagues is his tendency to send out text messages to junior frontbenchers, often late in the evening, with mildly critical remarks. When the hapless MPs reply they receive no response because Osborne has switched off his phone. The following day he will joke that he meant no harm and that he was sending group texts.
Nice.
Of course truth is that, had Osborne continued to deny the allegations, his old friend Nat Rothschild had enough evidence to “finish” him. It’s pretty clear that Mr. Osborne has been naughty, but the establishment is protecting its own as usual.
Who would you want as President?
This is a bit of a rhetorical question really, since anyone who wants John McCain as president should be shot and certainly not be posting on this blog. BUT. I must direct you to the fact that the New York Times has (rather unsurprisingly) endorsed Barack Obama for President. Who am I to disagree? Newspaper endorsements are three-to-one in his favour, a huge change from four years ago when Kerry was barely ahead of Bush. But anyway, I prefer Colin Powell’s endorsement, which was to the point.
What wasn’t articulated so well, incidentally, was Sarah Palin’s explanation as to how she had foreign policy experience simply because Alaska was near Russia. Watch the video – it’s brutally excruciating. I was reminded of that when I read Tim Montgomerie making a case for John McCain, hilariously because of his foreign policy stances. If the man has a heart attack tomorrow, the Clash of Civilisations that these Melanie Phillips clones hanker for would come a lot faster I suppose. Montgomerie won’t endorse anyone else anyway: he is firmly of the neo-conservative National Review magazine ideology that conservatives only support their own, no exceptions. That’s why they had to get rid of Christopher Buckley.
All this leads me to think: these neo-conservatives, of which I include Tories here, really have run out of any serious energy, ideas and momentum that built their movement from the 70s to 2008, given they have to defend such a weakened and desperate candidate. McCain is now running so many slimy robo-calls that his campaign is awash with uglyness, a fact even most Americans now acknowledge. But Republicans have grown up with the mentality that over-the-top smears work for so long that they probably can’t even fathom why Americans are backing away in horror.
The upside to the financial crisis
The biggest upside to the financial crisis is that it has boosted Barack Obama’s chances, when the election was in serious danger of becoming about culture wars again. The fact that McCain has nothing worthwhile to say and is fighting only by trying to associate Obama with William Ayers is a sign of how badly depleted the Republican intellectual base is.
Here, David Cameron has tried to assert his authority by making a plea to save capitalism, and has been been buried in the subsequent onslaught. It’s time to save banks, not capitalism. If the left really has no real response to this crisis, the Conservative response is even more laughable.
For example, Iain Dale is desperately trying to pretend that Gordon Brown is to blame for all this mess. In this parallel universe, only the US and UK are facing problems (nothing wrong in Japan, Iceland and Germany then). The Tories want to blame Labour for the regulatory system, without specifying whether they were for more or less regulation during that time, and what their solutions are now. They’re stumped – and in response trying to chuck mud at Brown again. Hence, the absolute silence from the Conservative front bench.
But the main problem for the right is that while Republicans have been criticised for an inadequate response, Brown and Darling have been praised everywhere for a solid plan that mainland Europe and the States are being urged to adopt. See this piece by Nobel prize winning Paul Krugman, for example. The Tories are floundering.
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Hague travels Barclays style
Who says those Tories don’t feel your pain…
From The Daily Mail::
William Hague is facing awkward questions about his judgment after he joined a lavish Italian trip for Barclays executives on a black day for global markets.
He spent Friday on the sunny shores of Lake Como, on the final day of a luxury break organised by the hard-pressed bank’s private wealth division.
While he enjoyed the balmy surroundings of one of Europe’s most expensive hotels, where rooms can cost £1,000 a night, markets in London and America went into freefall.
And yeah, that was a Daily Fail link.
John Redwood: let the banking system collapse
PLANET Vulcan is obviously blessed with an advanced Hayekian economy, in which self-clearing markets guarantee perpetual capitalist stability, with the sole proviso that supply and demand are always allowed to find their own equilibrium. So banks wouldn’t get into trouble in the first place, and if for any reason they did, that would be their tough luck.
That is the kind of mental universe inhabited by a certain hard right Tory called John Redwood. Remember him? The guy who once fancied himself as leader of the Conservative Party? continue reading… »
Nadine Dorries’ hypocrisy makes news
From Bedford Today, which is Nadine Dorries MP’s local paper:
Mid Beds MP Nadine Dorries has apologised to a watchdog following a complaint she had misused her website. Last week the Conservative MP for Mid Beds said she had been cleared by the Parliamentary commissioner for standards after a political campaigner alleged she had failed to make a clear distinction between her publicly-funded website and her personal ‘blog’.
But the Chronicle now understands that Ms Dorries was required to make changes to the site. A spokesman for the commissioner said: “This has been resolved through an informal resolution. “Ms Dorries was asked to put right the things that were wrong and she has made an apology to the commissioner.
Maybe that will teach Iain Dale to be more careful next time before he takes Ms Dorries for her word.
You can read articles through the front page, via Twitter or rss feeds.
» How bad is the feline obesity crisis?
» Why don’t MPs pay back tuition fees instead of increasing ours?
» Obama is right to slam BP – and why capitalists should too
» Why does Phillip Blond see civic cohesion as a security issue?
» So what if the Labour candidates went to Oxbridge?
» Last night’s Labour hustings: will it get interesting or turn to torture?
» It’s now down to Ken to win London for Labour
» The Labour people need
» Blog Nation: what would you like to see discussed?
» The Labour leadership’s token contender.. and it’s not Diane Abbott
» In defence of these fraternal nominations
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