It is, so I’m reliably informed, one of the most thankless roles in public life anywhere in the world, somewhere on a par with being the spare in the traditional monarchical ‘heir and spare’ equation and something less than a support slot on wet Wednesday night at Glasgow Barrowlands..

I’m talking, of course, about the Vice-President of the United States of America, a role for which the primary qualification often seems that of not being a sufficiently egregious moron to scare off the voters – although even that rule has had its notable exceptions as J Danforth Quayle memorably demonstrated.

This time around, however, things could be very different.

Although Clinton hasn’t quite got around to unleashing the fat lady for her final chorus, we now know that it will be McCain and Obama slugging it out for the top job come November and, as the primaries have shown, each of them is not without their problems when it comes to getting their party’s core vote out on the big day.

McCain’s issues have been well documented.

Whatever his other qualities he’s just not quite [evangelically] Christian enough or conservative enough to guarantee that the voters of ‘Bush Country’ will turn up on the day, a point driven home by the relative success of rank outsider Mike Hucakbee during the Republican nomination process. He also faces some opposition from the libertarian wing, some of whom continued to turn out and vote for Ron Paul as the Republicans went through the motions to completing their state primaries.

With Christian dominionists on one-side and libertarians on the other, McCain has a difficult path to walk if he’s to maximise his support amongst the Republican base.

Obama’s problem is a little different.

He has a lock on the Black vote, as you’d expect, has a strong appeal amongst uncommitted, independent voters and built the momentum for his campaign on the back of strong grass-roots support.

Yes, much of the female vote went with Clinton, also as you’d expect, but with the exception of perhaps the odd fit of feminist pique on a few blogs, that vote should swing back behind Obama no matter how grudging Clinton might be in defeat – and it needs to if only to ensure that it will be a Democrat who appoints the successor to John Paul Stevens, who is, at 88 years of age, the oldest and longest serving Justice of the Supreme Court and the only current Justice to served on the Burger Court, which ruled on Roe vs Wade.

What must worry the Obama camp, however, is the limited in-roads he’s managed to make in another core Democrat constituency, the ‘Blue Collar vote’, which has consistently broken at least 60:40 or better in Clinton’s favour during the primaries, even during periods when Obama was clearly on a roll and had all the momentum going in his direction. It’s this segment of the Democratic core that has also been, reported, most disturbed by Obama’s Pastor-al difficulties and one that has also tied him in few knots, as happened in Ohio where he got badly caught out by a report which claimed that an aide had pre-warned the Canadian Ambassador that a speech he to give criticising NAFTA was only ‘campaign rhetoric’ and should not be taken at face value.

For the first time in , perhaps, living memory, America has two candidates who will be going into a presidential election faced with questions about their ability to carry with them a key part of what would normally be thought their core vote, and with that prospect firmly on the horizon, both candidates will need to think long and hard about their choice of running mate, as the right choice of running mate could have a significant impact on their prospects.

Both seem to have difficult balancing acts to pull off here.

For McCain, the person-spec is straightforward enough – solid, socially conservative and with a sufficiently credible Christian background to placate the Christian right – but he also has an opportunity, given Obama’s difficulties in attracting the blue collar vote, to try and turn them into McCain Democrats, much as Reagan had his own cadre of Democrats during the 1980’s, and that militates against choosing a running mate who is too evangelical in his, or her, religious opinions.

Getting down to the possibles, the popular Florida Governor Charlie Crist has been widely touted as one of the favourites, although Crist has a couple of potential banana skins by way of allegations regarding his conduct as State Attourney General in relation to investigations into Lou Pearlman’s alleged Ponzi Scheme, which could prove a liability to McCain.

Conventional wisdom surrounding the importance of securing votes in the South has also pushed Haley Barbour (Mississippi) and Mark Sandford (South Carolina) in to the frame, although neither would offer much in the way of electoral advantage as both come from solid Republican states.

On the betting exchanges, former rival Mitt Romney is attracting his fair share of the money, but having run against McCain as the ‘establishment’ candidate, with all that goes with it by way of his connections with corporate America, Romney’s ability to generate campaign donations may be less of an advantage than some might think given that McCain has positioned himself as something of an anti-establishment figure when it comes to dealings with the Washington lobby circuit.

And so far as the outside track is concerned, the two speculative names that have attracted most attention are Condoleeza Rice and General David Petraeus, although its doubtful that McCain would choose either for fear of linking himself to closely to the dog days of the Bush administration.

However, I’ve thought for some time that the most likely place for McCain to look for a running mate would be the Mid-West, which tends to deliver the kind of solid Christian conservativism that McCain has to be looking for but without the penchant for hellfire and brimstone one finds in the Deep South, and for that reason I’m tipping Tim Pawlenty, the Governor of Minnesota and a co-Chairman of the McCain campaign, as the man most likely to be McCain’s running mate. At 48 years of age, Pawlenty would also bring an element of youth to the ticket, offsetting any doubts about McCain’s age and he has the kind of solid conservative (and Christian) credentials necessary to balance the McCain ticket in a way that will placate the Bush Country vote without scaring off Obama’s Democratic doubters.

Moving on to Obama, the unanswered question at the moment is whether Clinton has enough leverage to force her way onto the ticket into the number two slot.

I think not.

Clinton on the ticket would load down Obama with too much baggage and would have a polarising effect on the race of a kind that would guarantee McCain the support of the Christian right where he may otherwise find it difficult to get them to turn out in force. Clinton will, I think, get something out of running Obama close during the primaries, most likely control of a senate committee close to her heart, such as health, and possibly even a slot in the Obama administration if he wins the election but a running mate and eventual Veep she isn’t.

The obvious choice for shoring up the blue collar core would be John Edwards, but he’s already ruled himself out the running for Veep and popular as he might be, his outspoken criticism of Bush on issues of national security and foreign policy would leave an Obama/Edwards ticket wide open to attack when facing an opponent with McCain’s military background and credentials. Nevertheless, Edwards endorsement, together with that of Howard Dean, will go a long way towards shoring up the blue collar vote even without a Clinton on the ticket, so this may not present quite so many problems as some expect.

On the betting exchanges at present things are rather scattered with only Senator Jim Webb appearing to attract any serious money at the moment. Clearly it looks like the punters think that countering McCain’s old soldier routine will be the big priority for Obama.

Webb is a former Navy Secretary, under Reagan of all pas presidents, and, like McCain, has an exemplary military record and all the medals to go with it, a Navy Cross, a Silver Star, two Bronze Stars and a Purple Heart. Short of drafting in the highly popular Wesley Clark, if Obama wants a solid military connection for his campaign that Webb looks to be just the ticket.

There are several Clinton ’surrogates’ who could also fit the bill, Pennsylvania’s Ed Rendell, Ohio’s Ted Strickland and Indiana’s Evan Bayh being the three most prominent, but none of them bring any significant foreign policy experience to the table and their presence on the ticket could serve to amplify what is already considered one of Obama’s main weaknesses. And, in case, why choose a surrogate haven’t already defeated one half the real thing? Obama’s unique selling point is that he’s got something fresh and different to offer America so why dilute that by taking a step backwards with his choice of Veep.

On the outside track, Obama could spring a surprise by nominating a women as his running mate who’s name isn’t Clinton, in which case its worth keeping an eye on Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius. Sebelius is pro-choice, opposes the death penalty and has a strong track record on education and on standing up to vested interests. She’s also a winner in a state where the odds seems stacked against her; of Kansas’s registered voters, Republicans outnumber Democrats by almost two to one and yet, last time out she beat her Republican opponent by a landslide.

This is a difficult one to call, but my one to watch is the New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. Richardson brings two key things to the table, an excellent foreign policy background and one that was, crucially, gained via the diplomatic route rather than by way of the military and, of course, the key Hispanic vote which will be a big factor across the South West of the US and, particularly in the key state of California.

About the author
'Unity' is a regular contributor to Liberal Conspiracy. He also blogs at Ministry of Truth.
· Other posts by Unity

Filed under
Blog

Reader comments

Reactions: Twitter, blogs